Gregory Daco Profile picture
May 1 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🇺🇸@ism #Manufacturing +0.8pt to 47.1 in April -- still near low since May 2020

"Softening at slower pace"

❌New Orders 45.7 (+1.4pt)
❌Production 48.9 (+1.1pt)
✅Employment 50.2 (+3.3pt)
❌Supplier Deliveries 44.6 (-0.2pt)
❌Backlogs 43.1 (-1.2pt)
⬆️Inflation 53.2 (-2.1pt) Image
"We seem to be in a season of contradictions. Business is slowing, but in some ways, it isn’t. Prices for some commodities are stabilizing, but not for others. Some product shortages are over, others aren’t. Trucking is more plentiful, except when it isn’t..." Image
"It’s hard to make projections at the moment"

Purchasing managers generally reporting elevated uncertainty, softer demand, excess inventories and reduced pricing power, but this is truly a multispeed environment. Image
The prices index rebounded above 50 indicating some modest inflationary pressures -- in line with pre-pandemic period -- even as the supplier deliveries index remains well in contraction territory Image

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More from @GregDaco

May 3
#Fed Chair #Powell start the press conference with a strong message on banking

"Conditions in the banking sector have broadly improved since early March and the US banking system is sound and resilient. We will continue to monitor conditions in the sector" Image
"Committed learning the right lessons from this episode and we will work to prevent these events from happening again. VC Barr's review underscores need to address our rules & supervisory practices to make for stronger & + resilient banking system & I'm confident we will do so"
#Fed Chair Powell:
"Looking ahead we will take a data dependent approach in determining additional policy affirming may be appropriate."
It will take time however for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation."
Read 24 tweets
May 1
“JPMorgan Chase Bank to assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank.”

fdic.gov/news/press-rel… Image
“All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits.” Image
“ In addition to assuming all of the deposits, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, agreed to purchase substantially all of First Republic Bank’s assets” Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 3, 2022
🇺🇸 Five key points about the US labor market via @EYnews @EY_US @EY_Parthenon

🧵
1⃣ Job growth is slowing

The November jobs report was better-than-expected with +263k jobs, but the 3-month average is 272k. While this is still solid, it's much lower than 600k at start of the year & weakness in real estate, retail, prof biz services are important signals Image
2⃣ Be careful with the numbers -- household survey employment points to much softer picture...

HH survey employment implies +2 million fewer jobs than the establishment survey. Many working multiple jobs (contractors, independent, others) counted twice in establishment. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1, 2022
🇺🇸 #Jobsreport: Springs forward in March
🟢Payrolls +431k
🟢Private +426k
▶️Gds +60k
▶️Services +366k
🟢Gov +5k

🟢Revision: +95k

#Unemployment 3.6% (-0.2pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt:post #Covid high)

⬆️Wages +0.4% m/m & +5.6% y/y

❌Jobs shortfall🆚pre-#Covid: 1.6mn
While jobs growth moderated in April, this report continues to show a very robust and historically tight labor market.
Here are the 4 key elements in this report:

1. Payroll growth was softer than in prior months, but still broad-based

2. Unemployment rate fell to a new post-pandemic low

3. Sidelined workers rejoined the labor force

4. Wages advanced moderately.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 31, 2022
#Consumer spending +0.2% in Feb but fell 0.4% in real terms.

🟡Disposable income +0.4%
🟡Inflation-adj -0.2%

⤴️Savings +0.2pt to 6.3%: near 2013 low

PCE prices +0.6%
🔥#Inflation 6.4% (+0.4pt) high since '82

Core prices +0.4%
🔥Core inflation 5.4% (+0.2pt) high since '82
US consumer spending expenditures adjusted for inflation slipped 0.4% in February

🟡Consumers pulled back their outlays on goods (-2.1%) led by a 2.5% plunge in durable goods and a 1.9% contraction in nondurable goods.

🟢Spending on services posted a healthy 0.6% jump
Consumer spending in Feb

🟢Drivers:
- better health conditions
- Desire/Ability to spend

🟡Constraints (mostly on goods):
- Supply chain constraints
- Higher prices
- Spending mix rotation

▶️Spending on goods +16% 🆚pre-Covid
▶️Spending on services -0.3% 🆚pre-Covid
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
🇺🇸We expect easing #labor supply constraints & historically tight labor market conditions will draw people back into the US workforce in the coming quarters

We see the US labor force participation (LFPR) rate gradually rising from 61.6% to around 62.6% by the end 2022

Short 🧵
While the LFPR recovery is expected to undershoot the pre-pandemic rate (over 63%), the shortfall mostly reflects an aging population.

We find that the drag from baby boomers retiring (or exiting early) has offset the boost from sidelined workers re-entering the labor force.
We estimate that about 30% of the LFPR shortfall, or 0.4ppt, is structural (aging of the US population).

Remaining 70% attributable to early retirement, lost immigration, & some temporary headwinds stemming from lingering Covid fear, childcare responsibilities, & discouragement
Read 6 tweets

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