"We seem to be in a season of contradictions. Business is slowing, but in some ways, it isn’t. Prices for some commodities are stabilizing, but not for others. Some product shortages are over, others aren’t. Trucking is more plentiful, except when it isn’t..."
"It’s hard to make projections at the moment"
Purchasing managers generally reporting elevated uncertainty, softer demand, excess inventories and reduced pricing power, but this is truly a multispeed environment.
The prices index rebounded above 50 indicating some modest inflationary pressures -- in line with pre-pandemic period -- even as the supplier deliveries index remains well in contraction territory
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#Fed Chair #Powell start the press conference with a strong message on banking
"Conditions in the banking sector have broadly improved since early March and the US banking system is sound and resilient. We will continue to monitor conditions in the sector"
"Committed learning the right lessons from this episode and we will work to prevent these events from happening again. VC Barr's review underscores need to address our rules & supervisory practices to make for stronger & + resilient banking system & I'm confident we will do so"
#Fed Chair Powell:
"Looking ahead we will take a data dependent approach in determining additional policy affirming may be appropriate."
It will take time however for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation."
“All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits.”
“ In addition to assuming all of the deposits, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, agreed to purchase substantially all of First Republic Bank’s assets”
The November jobs report was better-than-expected with +263k jobs, but the 3-month average is 272k. While this is still solid, it's much lower than 600k at start of the year & weakness in real estate, retail, prof biz services are important signals
2⃣ Be careful with the numbers -- household survey employment points to much softer picture...
HH survey employment implies +2 million fewer jobs than the establishment survey. Many working multiple jobs (contractors, independent, others) counted twice in establishment.
🇺🇸We expect easing #labor supply constraints & historically tight labor market conditions will draw people back into the US workforce in the coming quarters
We see the US labor force participation (LFPR) rate gradually rising from 61.6% to around 62.6% by the end 2022
Short 🧵
While the LFPR recovery is expected to undershoot the pre-pandemic rate (over 63%), the shortfall mostly reflects an aging population.
We find that the drag from baby boomers retiring (or exiting early) has offset the boost from sidelined workers re-entering the labor force.
We estimate that about 30% of the LFPR shortfall, or 0.4ppt, is structural (aging of the US population).
Remaining 70% attributable to early retirement, lost immigration, & some temporary headwinds stemming from lingering Covid fear, childcare responsibilities, & discouragement