Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Consumer
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The Weekly Recap 🧵
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week with discussing our view ahead for markets. Our systematic view is that we are headed towards a stagflationary recession.
2. Re 1, we further contextualised our view by sharing our systematic updates on inflation & growth.
Resilient US Consumer 🧵
1. In April, households saw incomes increase as employment and inflation contributed to nominal incomes. Alongside this increase in employment income, we also saw continued support from income on assets total incomes. Below we show the composition:
1. In April, households saw incomes increase as employment and inflation contributed to nominal incomes. Alongside this increase in employment income, we also saw continued support from income on assets total incomes. Below we show the composition:
2. Personal income increased by 0.36% in April, disappointing consensus expectations of 0.4%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
3. The primary drivers of this print were Employee Compensation (0.6%) & Income on Assets (0.25%). Over the last year, Employee Compensation (3.36%), Rental Income (0.5%), & Income on Assets (0.96%). have been the primary sources of the 5.43% growth in income.
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
Today’s #CPI report continues to depict #inflation that is just too high for most people’s good, especially the @federalreserve’s.
In fact, the report showed that #inflation remains remarkably sticky, which doesn’t correspond to virtually any practical thinker’s timeline of when it might be expected to start to come down further.
These elevated levels of inflation continue to be remarkably high relative to the many months with which the #economy has now operated with persistently higher #InterestRates.
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
#UncommonSense ..... India has already become an #OVER #TAXED #ECONOMY on the #Consumer considering how such few people pay Income tax, poor people pay GST while Corporates pay very litte.
Combined Center & State Tax to GDP over 18%!! Compare that to China (Next tweet)
Combined Center & State Tax to GDP over 18%!! Compare that to China (Next tweet)
In china the Tax to GDP is 20%... but important things to understand is (Next tweet)
KEY difference b/n India and China is that, in China, 1/4th of the 20% tax goes towards Social Security Contributions (EPF, PF, Insurance, ELSS etc) which in India is termed as Savings and NOT Tax.
Effectively China Tax2GDP is 15% vs 18% in India.
Another Diff (Next Twt)
Effectively China Tax2GDP is 15% vs 18% in India.
Another Diff (Next Twt)
The indicator of current financial conditions (vs. a year ago) bounced from the lows this year. #consumer @dailyshot charts... dailyshotbrief.com
Eurozone: The recent equity market rally has eliminated the excess risk premium over bonds.
Deutsche Bank’s positioning indicator has been nearing its midpoint level.
#capitalism is essentially *backwards* looking. yes, capitalists attempt to pretend that they're the masters of #innovation and advancement of #technology, the builders of the #future, and all that.
it's lies—mere #marketing. capitalists do not like progress or change.
(1/x)
it's lies—mere #marketing. capitalists do not like progress or change.
(1/x)
corporate #management and #executive persons want one thing above all others: guaranteed #money. they want *safe bets*. they don't want #competition or #risk; they want a steady source of "passive income" that always goes up and up.
(this causes #inflation, by the way.)
(2/x)
(this causes #inflation, by the way.)
(2/x)
(yes, I know that #capitalism and the #business community, not to mention all #politics and #journalism these days, blame #inflation on the profligate #consumer—but in reality, inflation occurs because capitalists always want *more #money*; it has to come from somewhere.)
(3/x)
(3/x)
As we head into 2023, we at Veritas think the headwinds are getting stronger against the Canadian #banks. Let's look at a few data points in the next series of tweets.
1/15
1/15
First, when the Big Six reported their Q4 results early in December, none except $RY saw a #recession coming in the next 12 months in their base case forward looking economic indicators. (RY estimated real GDP growth of negative 0.2%).
2/15
2/15
However, notice how much more negative their indicators got between Q3 and Q4 (red means the bank is more negative relative to the other banks and green more positive).
3/15
3/15
(1/7) #Bullmarkets are periods of increased #asset values due to regular #price fluctuations. This thread emphasizes on its causes and characteristics. 🐮🧵
Learn More 👇
medium.com/zignaly/llts22…
Learn More 👇
medium.com/zignaly/llts22…
(2/7) Wage growth, capital inflows, minimal unemployment, strong #consumer spending, and increasing corporate #profits are all factors that lead to sustainable #bullruns. 🐮📈
(3/7) Characteristics of a #BullCycle:
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
(1/12) Understanding mega cap companies helps us understand the broader #market because they have such an outsized impact on the indices people track and invest in. Yesterday we talked about big / ad #tech ( $GOOG $META) and today we are talking #retail.
(2/12) People forget that Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN are the largest companies in the world by sales...
Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
(3/12) So lets take a look at the state of retail from the top down (macro / economy level) and then from the bottom up (micro / company level)…
We are bottoms up investors, but pay close attention to the macro as an overlay (and just out of interest!).
We are bottoms up investors, but pay close attention to the macro as an overlay (and just out of interest!).
1. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic
From 2012 to 2021, I worked w/remarkable #campaigners 2secure an #European @Standards4EU 2deliver cleaner & less toxic air 4 #Aircrew & #Passengers
In that period, we suffered derision, insult & indifference, but still we battled
From 2012 to 2021, I worked w/remarkable #campaigners 2secure an #European @Standards4EU 2deliver cleaner & less toxic air 4 #Aircrew & #Passengers
In that period, we suffered derision, insult & indifference, but still we battled
2. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic
My colleagues need to be recognised:
@SusanMichaelis1 @oferralle #JohnGoss #JudithMcJannet #ArieAdriaesen #VincianeCabaret #HalvorErikstein
No one will ever know or u/stand what we endured, but we strove to build bridges
My colleagues need to be recognised:
@SusanMichaelis1 @oferralle #JohnGoss #JudithMcJannet #ArieAdriaesen #VincianeCabaret #HalvorErikstein
No one will ever know or u/stand what we endured, but we strove to build bridges
3. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic
But, as with all things standards-making, as we discovered via @Standards4EU, the path was never straight
However, we created the most dynamic draft #Standard seen to date
This document would have changed e/thing on #fumeevents
But, as with all things standards-making, as we discovered via @Standards4EU, the path was never straight
However, we created the most dynamic draft #Standard seen to date
This document would have changed e/thing on #fumeevents
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory.
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector.
#Indians are #saving more and working longer hours to meet living expenses, says study
businessinsider.in/india/news/ind…
By @karunasharmaa
businessinsider.in/india/news/ind…
By @karunasharmaa
Urban #consumers are putting less money into their piggy banks as #savings have taken a hit due to increasing prices of fuel, food and beverage and massive household bills.
#inflation
#inflation
For 76% of urban #consumers, the rising cost of living is having an impact on their big plans, said a report.
35% consumers said that their household financial situation is deteriorating and 46% of them believe the general economic outlook of the country is negative.
#inflation
35% consumers said that their household financial situation is deteriorating and 46% of them believe the general economic outlook of the country is negative.
#inflation
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper crushthestreet.com/articles/break…
Lay’s, Kurkure and Bingo are taking over Indian #snacks like Aloo Bhujia, Murukku
businessinsider.in/retail/news/la…
By @Krittiiii
businessinsider.in/retail/news/la…
By @Krittiiii
The changes in customer preference is pitting India’s traditional snacks like Aloo Bhujia, murukku, makhane and more against international brands like Lays, Bingo and Pringles. While this may come off as a comparison of apples and oranges, it does stand true.
#snacks
#snacks
Strong distribution, wide flavour range at varied price points and aggressive promotion are some of the leading drivers for Pepsico and ITC strong portfolio and market dominance.
#snacks
#snacks
𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 🔈
This is a FREE OPPORTUNITY to get direct access to Management Teams from top consumer brands.
As easy as 1,2,3 👇🏽
This is a FREE OPPORTUNITY to get direct access to Management Teams from top consumer brands.
As easy as 1,2,3 👇🏽
1/ Event
The upcoming share series is kicking off on Monday, June 27th,
𝔸𝕟𝕕 𝕚𝕥’𝕤 𝕆ℕ𝔼 𝕠𝕗 𝕒 𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕕
The event is a free virtual session, you will be able to tune in from anywhere in the world.
#financetips #investors
The upcoming share series is kicking off on Monday, June 27th,
𝔸𝕟𝕕 𝕚𝕥’𝕤 𝕆ℕ𝔼 𝕠𝕗 𝕒 𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕕
The event is a free virtual session, you will be able to tune in from anywhere in the world.
#financetips #investors
2/ Register
This is not something you want to miss #retailinvestor
Reserve your spot by clicking on the link below:
share-series.videoshowcase.net
This is not something you want to miss #retailinvestor
Reserve your spot by clicking on the link below:
share-series.videoshowcase.net
1. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?
So, the finger-jabbing continues
Meantime, I've spoken to #Consumers abt positive experiences @STN_Airport - plenty of staff & well org they tell me, so why is it so different elsewhere?
Then there's other issues....
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
So, the finger-jabbing continues
Meantime, I've spoken to #Consumers abt positive experiences @STN_Airport - plenty of staff & well org they tell me, so why is it so different elsewhere?
Then there's other issues....
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
2. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?
We hear of the remarkable pleading to allow foreign workers to come in under special visas which was refused; a free-movement #Brexit issue; an own goal!
But clearly the discussion has been going on for months
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
We hear of the remarkable pleading to allow foreign workers to come in under special visas which was refused; a free-movement #Brexit issue; an own goal!
But clearly the discussion has been going on for months
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
3. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?
In this discussion abt foreign workers & other matters, we discover @GOVUK & #TravelIndustry have had regular meetings w/warnings given
So, @grantshapps release minutes of the meetings & let's see discussions & warnings
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
In this discussion abt foreign workers & other matters, we discover @GOVUK & #TravelIndustry have had regular meetings w/warnings given
So, @grantshapps release minutes of the meetings & let's see discussions & warnings
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
@LBC @NickFerrariLBC
Thnx 4opp 2talk abt current #Airport #Airline #Travel chaos; not just UK prob; it extends across #Europe
Many reasons & blame abound but the return to normality was always going 2B problematic.
#Brexit transferred 261/2004 Rights; @CAA_UK should enforce!
Thnx 4opp 2talk abt current #Airport #Airline #Travel chaos; not just UK prob; it extends across #Europe
Many reasons & blame abound but the return to normality was always going 2B problematic.
#Brexit transferred 261/2004 Rights; @CAA_UK should enforce!
2. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19? @LBC
Key Q: @GOVUK claim they'd warned #TravelIndustry, concerned that they: "Seriously oversold flights & holidays relative to their capacity".
@grantshapps publish meetings, minutes & warnings; let's see the detail!......
Key Q: @GOVUK claim they'd warned #TravelIndustry, concerned that they: "Seriously oversold flights & holidays relative to their capacity".
@grantshapps publish meetings, minutes & warnings; let's see the detail!......
It's weekend and it's the end of the month. The #markets are closed.
So there is the perfect time to analyze the #momentum & relative #strength of the markets.
This information is relevant for all #investors, but especially for #trend #followers 📈📈📈
#marketresearch
🧵
So there is the perfect time to analyze the #momentum & relative #strength of the markets.
This information is relevant for all #investors, but especially for #trend #followers 📈📈📈
#marketresearch
🧵
The #momentum of the markets are one of the most powerful forces in the evolution of the #asset #prices.
The #reversion to the mean is the opposite force, which is equally powerful. Momentum works on a short and medium term (up to 3 to 5 years).
The #reversion to the mean is the opposite force, which is equally powerful. Momentum works on a short and medium term (up to 3 to 5 years).
We are LIVE tweeting the panel discussion “East of Eden: Unleashing the Content Subcontinent” with @ianuragthakur, Bela Bajaria, @MadhuriDixit, @shekharkapur, @saadmohseni and @authoramish
Stay tuned for updates!
#Raisina2022
Stay tuned for updates!
#Raisina2022
.@ianuragthakur: To exist and to stay relevant, we need hard power and to form relations beyond boundaries, we need #softpower.
#Raisina2022 #culture #content
#Raisina2022 #culture #content
