Thread by @EHSANI221

#Syria ‘s Assad did roll out the red carpet for #Iran ‘s president

Assad wanted to dismiss any notion that his rapprochement with the Arab world would come at the expense of Tehran

But why is this alliance so enduring & why does Assad cling to it at seemingly high costs?

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2-When you pick allies, you want them to be there when you absolutely need them and for them to demand little in return

This is precisely what Tehran is to Damascus

A consistent & dependable ally who needs you just as much as you need them

Ditch them for who? And what?

3-Assad loves to keep all his options open. Never be hostage to one single party

His nirvana ?

Be friends with Tehran, Moscow, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Ankara and even Washington

But he knows he can’t

So he has to pick his most trusted & enduring ones

You guessed who

4-Yes, being friends with Washington, Paris or Riyadh is better for your economy than if you picked Tehran

But who do you trust more with your your life?

Who will not stab you in the back?

Who will be there when you need them without asking you to engage in democracy first?

Has Assad gone so deep with #Tehran that he can’t even go to the bathroom without checking with them first ?

Or

Has Assad gone so deep with #Moscow that he can’t even go to the bathroom without checking with them first ?

Both versions keep getting repeated as consensus

Truth is Tehran needs Assad as much if not by more, than he needs them

There is only way to Hizbollah & that is not through Gabon

Assad is super important to Iran and that he needs to be a slave to them is untrue

They both can and will rely on each as they have for decades

But if throwing #Iran under the bus and joining the other camp is better for #Syria ‘s economy and the standards of living of its people, why not do that ?

Why not take the plunge and go to a more uncertain future?

Why not think about others and not just you?

Because ….

That #Syria is not a beacon of democracy and that Assad ain’t no George Washington is absolutely true

I don’t recall Assad or anyone around him claiming otherwise

Truth is that Assad practices governing through absolute power with hardly any constitutional limitations

Assad’s rule through absolute power is unlikely to ever change

So what do you do about it?

Monumental efforts to topple him were tried

He survived because most underestimated his will to survive at all costs, including barrel bombing his way out of it & more

Back to #Iran ‘s red carpet treatment

This is a message to Tehran, Riyadh , Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv & Washington that I am not hurting enough to make any changes to my multi-triangulation policy

If you want to bring me into the fold, great

But am not weak or poor or on my knees

Yes, the country is weak and is on its knees. Sanctions are doing their job and impoverishing the populace

But is this going to culminate in Assad losing power?

No

The sanctions are just to make people feel good they are doing something to hurt Assad

If anything, the sanctions have made regime operatives wealthier not poorer

The fourth division is not hurting

Assad and his kids don’t look like they are starving

The ever poorer populace are not about to hold a board meeting and fire Assad

The only people who are pro sanctions are groups like the Washington-based opposition

The only thing they have left is to go to any congressman / senator who listens & urge them to impose more sanctions

This way they can sleep better knowing they are doing something /anything