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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
May 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#EU_Sanctions: It took a full-scale war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine for the EU to realize that it has to develop tools to preserve stability (NB: I don’t mean the toxic stabilitocracy) and order in Wider Europe. Although somewhat belated,⤵️
the new anti-corruption sanctions regime may also indirectly target autocrats, because in some cases they build loyalty for their tulle through corruption in their national jurisdiction and even across borders.⤵️
I have been advocating to counter the influence of autocrats and their corruption since 2020. Back then, and I took advantage of the Dutch push for that, I envisaged that the EU Magnitsky Law could be for purposes such as sanctions.👇⤵️
Nevertheless, the new anti-corruption sanctions (now under preparation) could be more flexible to apply, but will still require extensive evidence & depoliticized evaluation. Otherwise, its usage could be compromised and used for domestic power struggles in the EU’s vicinity.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 15
#Moldova: The ruling party announced that it will initiate a withdrawal from the CIS because it did not help resolve the Transnistrian conflict or guard against energy pressure from Russia. This contradicts previous statements by the ruling party on the gradual exit from⤵️
certain CIS agreements that may conflict with the future process of accession to the EU. From an economic point of view, trade with Russia has been falling in the last decade. In energy terms, Moldova now has alternative routes.⤵️
The high costs will have been offset by further integration with the EU: loss of the FTA with the CIS and the visa-free regime. These two policies will lose the liberalized character with the CIS region and Russia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 14
#Russia_Sanctions: The G7 and the EU are considering sanctioning the importation of Russian gas pipelines and partly also the oil pipeline (Druzhba northern branch) to prevent EU states from changing their position in the future. This seems a kind of self-sanction based on⤵️
the logic that the EU has found enough alternative sources, including large volumes of LNG from the US. An exemption will be needed for the import of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine (daily up to 43 mcm).
kyivindependent.com/russian-media-…
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 14
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Int mediation efforts continue to multiply. Now 3 actors are involved: Russia, the EU, the US. During the EPC summit in Moldova, France/Macron and Germany/Scholz will join the EU to discuss the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan (2+3 format).
The next meeting between Armenia and Azerbaijan will take place in Moscow on May 19. This will be the third meeting after Washington and Brussels. It is difficult to tell which external actor is more persuasive in bringing the two parties closer together.
According to Michel, the dialogue between Pashinyan and Aliyev has progressed on all fronts: 1) peace agreement; 2) border demarcation based on the 1991 borders of the two countries; 3) connectivity for Nakhichevan; 4) humanitarian issue; 5) situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 14
#Moldova: The second round of the elections in the autonomy of Gagauz has begun. Voters will vote for one of two candidates: Gutul/Shor Party or Uzun/Socislistas. I open a thread to highlight the important aspects. Yesterday's thread explains the nuances of these elections👇⤵️
1) Yesterday, the legal body of autonomy (People's Assembly) accused the central authorities (PAS/Sandu) of illegal interference in the elections and intimidation of the Gagauz electoral body that could hinder the course of the elections.⤵️
In reality, the central authority must ensure the integrity of the electoral process. However, the corrupt behavior of the candidates (that refers to the Shor Party) and the weak dialogue between the central and local authorities have created an environment of mutual mistrust.⤵️
Read 10 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 13
#Eurovision: So far, Spain has brought out both traditional flamenco in a more modern style and singing skills. I love it. 🧵
Albania is going for a traditional vibe too. No pop music from this Balkan country.
Italy is going for a song in Italian again and it sounds authentic. Like.
Read 36 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 13
#Russia: Russia's soft power is weakened (in a crisis mode) trying to adapt to the new, much more restrictive international and regional environment. It is premature to say though that Russia has lost its attractiveness everywhere evenly. In the West,⤵️
the space for Russian power has been damaged considerably and it will remain so until the war is over and a post-sanction reality emerges. In other places like what I call “deep CIS space” (Central Asia) and the Global South, Russia's soft power evolution will depend on⤵️
the sum of bilateral relations (win-win or zero-sum) and the quality of transactional relations. A turning point for Russian soft power will be the survivability of the Putin regime in the event of defeat in Ukraine or serious complications leading to withdrawal⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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