Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Moldova: Tomorrow, the runoff of the elections in Russia-leaning Gagauz autonomy will be indicative of whether the pro-Russian forces are capable to produce electoral results, which are also corresponding to the legal exigence: ⤵️

1) Two candidates will compete for the executive seat (bashkan) of a 150,000-population autonomy in the south of Moldova; 2) Both candidates, Gagauz by ethnic origin, are open about their pro-Russian views: ⤵️

Evgenia Gutul (candidate of the US-sanctioned Shor Party) and Ion Uzun (independent backed by the Socialists); 3) To win the elections they will have to double the results of the first round and add more to that. The candidates who won in the past elections accumulated votes ⤵️

ranging from 32,000 votes in 2015 (incumbent Irina Vlah's first mandate) to 45,000 in 1995 (Gheorghe Tabunșcic). It is very unlikely, that any of the two current candidates will overcome 30,000 votes, which will give them fragile legitimacy; ⤵️

4) Gutul/Shor obtained 14,890 votes in the first round, while Uzun/Socialists - had 14,849 votes. To win in the runoff, they will need the support of other candidates who registered fewer votes. The focus is on those who have views favoring Russia or direct links - ⤵️

Victor Petrov (9,132 votes) and Nicolai Dudoglo (5,059 votes); 5) Even if the second round takes place and one of the two (Gutu or Uzun) wins, the electoral body should validate the elections if at least 1/3 of the eligible population (around 31,000) show up the vote. ⤵️

In the first round, 57% or 57,019 persons cast their votes. The total number of registered voters constitutes 92,519. 6) Another prerequisite for the elections to be validated is the integrity of the electoral process. Law enforcement agencies have initiated investigations ⤵️

into the accusation of illegal financing and bribing of the voters by the Shor Party/Evghenia Gutul. If the electoral body decides that the elections were compromised, then the outcome will be nullified. However, if only one candidate has breached the legislation, then only ⤵️

he/she could be disqualified. That means that if the result of Gutul/Shor will be annulled, then Uzun could be considered the winner even if he obtains fewer votes. 7) It is also unknown if the Constitutional Court decides to outlaw the Shor Party for ⤵️

undermining the rule of law and the sovereignty of Moldova. The decision will be issued during the next week and can have post-factum effects, including on the elections in Gagauzia. In any case, the legal interpretations are up to the electoral authority. ⤵️

If Gutul is disqualified or the whole election will be invalidated, the pro-Russian opposition will use it against the ruling party (PAS/Sandu) accusing it of persecution to mobilize the voters for the upcoming general local elections. Stay tuned!