THIS IS #BIG ! #Hawala 2.0 Will EXPLODE in India post JULY 1st. Just My opinion:
By IMPLEMENTING 20% Tax Collected On Source (#TCS) on Foreign Spend (Currency, FX cards, Credit Cards, Debit Cards, Transfers), it becomes Increasingly more Cost Effective to Transfer Via #Hawala
If you try and BUY #Foreign Currency in the Black, that spread that used to be 2-3%, will now become 10% possibly
Unused Balances of Loaded Forex Cards will Go at a Premium of 10-12%
This REMINDS me of what happened in GOLD SMUGGLING in India post June 2022 when @nsitharaman decided to Raise IMPORT duty on GOLD to 12.5% from previous levels of 7.5%
As soon as this #GOLD Import DUTY hike got announced, #WorldGoldCouncil published - report saying that #GOLD#SMUGGLING will EXPLODE since it becomes very profitable to BUY in Black vs Formal which is 15% More Expensive
Back in 2016, the GOVT RAISED the #PAN Requirement for #GOLD & #jewellery purchase from INR 50k to INR 200k. The limit for Mutual Funds, Insurance, Cash Deposits etc is INR 50k. Why will they RAISE the LIMIT on GOLD & JEWELLERY ago INR 200k
Let’s SUMMARISE
1) 20% Tax Collected at Source #TCS will revive #Hawala in a big way
2) GOLD Import Duty Hike in July 2022 resulted in HIGHER GOLD SMUGGLING
3) Raising the #PAN card Threshold on GOLD & JEWELLERY purchase to INR 200k implies REDUCED Disclosure of PURCHASE
This is just a view. It sounds logical to me. If my understanding is wrong, am happy to be corrected.
People are asking WHY DID #INR to fall so sharply on FRIDAY to 83.64/USD?
A quick 🧵 explaining why …#RBI
Who BENEFITS most when INR Depreciates?
✅It’s Financial Year end and @RBI has PROFIT targets & DIVIDEND targets of 120,000 Crores to pay Govt of India
✅ when INR Depreciates (#USDINR Rises), @RBI makes profits since it’s ASSETS are USD BONDS/GOLD & it’s LIABILITIES is INR
✅ When #INR depreciates (#USDINR rises), EXPORTS become competitive and IMPORTS become cheaper
✅ When #INR Depreciates, The BIGGEST component of GST (IGST of GST) grows faster since IGST is levied on IMPORTS, Basic & Intermediate Raw Materials, Inventory
#NRI #Remittances will not only #COLLAPSE but they could reverse
A quick thread with implications for the #INR
#NRI #Remittances will not only collapse but they could reverse as outflows unless the DEPOSIT Rates offered by Indian Banks to NRIs are at-least 6-7% $ Rates
Today the US Rates are 1) 4.7% on the US 10yr 2) Investment Grade US bonds offer $6.5% 3) MBS Securities offer $7% at-least 4) US High Yield Bonds are offering $8-9% pa
Compared to that FCNR deposits are at just 5.5-5.8%
FIRST: Every litre of Ethanol, Govt India will lose Rs15-20 in Tax Collections since:
👉Cost of Procuring PETROL is Rs45/lt
👉Cost of Procurement of ETHANOL is Rs65/Lt