Thanks to everyone sharing my threads about the outrageously inaccurate #abelxn23 polling. I hope post-election there will be a serious discussion about polling practices, influence, and ethics. This thread discusses the legal requirements for polls. #ableg#abpoli
The Alberta Elections Act sets out a general requirement for election surveys in section 135. Pollsters must register with the Chief Electoral Officer, but there's no certification. Anyone can call themselves a pollster regardless of their affiliation or qualifications.
There are some general disclosure requirements, including who commissioned the poll and some basic details, but methodology is up to the pollster. There is no set standard.
The Alberta Elections Act states that polls not based on "recognized statistical methods" must disclose so, but it doesn't say what recognized statistical methods are. Presumably, the onus would be on a plaintiff to establish that the poll is not based on recognized methods.
Finally, the Act says you can't release a poll on election day, a reasonable restriction that prevents pollsters from standing outside voting stations asking who you just voted for. That would be incredibly irritating.
So to recap: 1. Anyone can be a pollster. 2. Pollsters can use any method they want. 3. There are few rules and no penalties for breaking any of them.
But surely nobody would abuse these loose regulations to put out misleading polls that might influence voter intentions. 🤔
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I predicted an NDP win two weeks ago, and I'm standing by that prediction. These are my five reasons why NDP will form government tomorrow, and why the pollsters STILL have it wrong. #ableg#abpoli#abelxn23
1. Moderate conservatives in Calgary will choose Notley over Smith. These voters want low taxes, well-run services, and they don't tolerate nonsense. Rachel offers this, Smith doesn't. This thread explains why they will deliver Calgary for the NDP:
2. Vote inefficiency means that if UCP only wins the popular vote by 2%, as pollsters predict, NDP wins the election. If UCP only gets 50% provincially, they're down to 45% or less in Calgary, and lose all but the deep south. They need at least a draw in Calgary to win.
I doubt this claim. Overall advance vote was 8.1% higher than 2019, a year that saw high conservative engagement. All indications are that UCP engagement has fallen, while NDP is up. This short thread on party data explains why this claim is unsupported at best. #AbElection2023
Most people don't know this, but the parties know if you've voted. All parties have access to the voter roll, including whether or not you've cast your ballot. This helps campaigns in getting out their voters and spares voters from being contacted after they've voted.
However, parties aren't told WHO the voter selected. Parties can only find this out by contacting voters, and their information on this is far from perfect. You can't talk to every voter every cycle. If you're lucky, you'll identify 30-40% of your voters.
This is very encouraging. Notley is going to Calgary South-East and Calgary-Lougheed, districts UCP won by 61/19 and 66/25 in 2019. Leaders don't spend the final days of races in districts they don't think they can win. If South Calgary is in play, UCP is toast. #ableg#abelxn23
I spoke to a young doctor today who is waiting on the outcome of the next election to decide whether to open his practice in Alberta or in another province. The next election is a referendum on the future of public health care in Alberta (short thread). #ableg
Last month I spoke to a couple that had just completed their degrees, one in nursing and the other in medicine. They were packing up their apartment to move to BC. Our investment of hundreds of thousands of dollars lost thanks to our government's hostility towards health workers.
Covid was a challenge for every jurisdiction, but most of the damage done to Alberta's health system has been self-inflicted. Speaking to dozens of health workers over the past two months, every one, even UCP supporters, tell me the problem is management, both AHS and government.