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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 27

1. I don't know what happened to the #IvanKhurs but I know a couple of things. First, it was attacked by at least three drone ships in an area off the entrance to the #Bosporus. Second, early reports claimed to show it with the name on the side. Third, I knew that was likely

2. false because I happened to take a photo of the ship in October and the name had been painted over. So because I witnessed the Russian lies over the Slava Battle Cruiser Moskva, I tend to not believe Russian reporting when it is about one of their ships that was attacked.

3. I concluded that there is a better than 50% possibility that #IvanKurs was damaged or sunk and if damaged it is being towed by the ##Commander back to #Sevastopol. Before the AIS reporting was stopped I made the Commander as making less than 1 knot. Based on a speed of 1 knot

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 25

1. Russia continues to react to the Belgorod incursion along with Ukrainian shaping operations by rushing to reinforce both the area on the border near Belgorod and in Bakhmut due to Wagner forces abrupt decision to withdraw after Prigozhin warned the flanks were collapsing.

2. The #FreedomOfRussiaLegion and #RussianVolunteersCorps held a presser where they claimed all strategic goals were accomplished. They stated they have proven a large force from Ukraine could take Belgorod quickly thus forcing the Russian command to redeploy forces from the

3. support in areas where the Ukrainian offensive could be soon expected. Redeployment puts Russian forces in the open and more at risk. DPR forces in the city of #Khartsyzk were being deployed to Bakhmut to replace Wagner and Ukraine attacked with them with HIMARS.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 24

1. To defeat the #RussianInvasion IMO #Ukraine needs to destroy the rail and road connections from Western Russia to Eastern Ukraine. They also need to interrupt the Russian ability to arm especially artillery ammunition and tanks. The maps tell me Ukraine may be doing it.

2. I have my Google Earth Pro updated with NASA Firms fires data on a constant feed. I spotted these today. The ones near #Voronezh #Rossosh and #StaryOskol caught my eye. They are all near rail lines and the ones near Stary Oskol are in what appears to be a steel production

3. facility that would be a good candidate for production of the steel blanks that are needed to fabricate artillery ammunition. Here is Stary Oskol. It appears to be a factory near a mining facility. Old-timey Stalinist industry practice of the factory near the mine.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 24

1. The operation around #Belgorod is reported to have been more extensive than originally reported. The #RussianVolunteerCorps and #FreedomOfRussiaLegion may have withdrawn back to Ukraine but the incursion was on a larger scale than previously reported.

2. The original incursion on the left of this map shows the fallback positions prior to withdrawal, with the Russian mechanized unit pushing forward. To the east, the anti-Putin forces also pressed on two other lines of advance. Because Russia has no reserve forces, detachments

3. of FSB security forces moved to counter but only after their HQ was attacked by drones. Reports are the FSB did not fare well. These two eastern incursions may have been brief but apparently accomplished a Ukrainian strategic objective of forcing Russian commanders to rapidly

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 24

1. We made the same mistake with China we made with Russia. Our IC's blindness about China in the mid-1980s was repeated when the Soviet Union collapsed. We had the power to make being part of our economic world require liberal democratic principals. Barring that, a polite

2. but firm denial of advanced technology or markets should have been the stick to the carrot of the US economy. But as Chairman Mao warned, the "silver coated bullets of capitalism" made us blind to what they both had in store. We craved the Chinese labor and consumer markets

3. and the abundant Russian natural resources. And when the mortgage crisis brought the western economies to their knees, dirty Russian money was freely available but it came with a special price: Corruption that is so pervasive to have even infected the NY FBI.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

May 23

1. I recall the Russian state was overthrown once in history. A foolish #Tsar chose to support his cousin and joined a war against another cousin. The Tsar was not a very good commander and the war did not go well for Russia. Eventually people rose up and shot the Tsar.

2. Today that history may be repeating. It started with artillery strikes on the area of a Russian border control point attacked from #Ukrainian territory by approximately 50 #Russiannationals. After securing the control point approximately 500 more Russian nationals moved in and

3. began taking towns until they reached #Grayvoron where they were eventually met by Russian forces trying to halt the advance. The invading force started with one #tank an #IFV and several #Humvees and also captured vehicles in Russia.

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