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I doubt this claim. Overall advance vote was 8.1% higher than 2019, a year that saw high conservative engagement. All indications are that UCP engagement has fallen, while NDP is up. This short thread on party data explains why this claim is unsupported at best. #AbElection2023
https://twitter.com/ABDanielleSmith/status/1662652196465553408
Most people don't know this, but the parties know if you've voted. All parties have access to the voter roll, including whether or not you've cast your ballot. This helps campaigns in getting out their voters and spares voters from being contacted after they've voted.
However, parties aren't told WHO the voter selected. Parties can only find this out by contacting voters, and their information on this is far from perfect. You can't talk to every voter every cycle. If you're lucky, you'll identify 30-40% of your voters.
If voters always voted for the same party, that would be fine. Eventually parties would get around to identifying all their supporters. But actually contacting is hard, and there's no guarantee that someone you've identified as a supporter in the past will vote for you again.
As a result, UCP will have people marked as supporters in their data that they haven't contacted since 2019, including those who have flip. There's no way to calculate a number that smashes the 2019 record without including them, so they must be assuming 2019 support didn't flip.
The important point is that UCP has no way of knowing with certainty how many votes they received in the advance poll until they're released on election day. No party does. The claim may turn out to be true, but even they have no way of knowing that with certainty at this point.
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