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Derek Hetherington Profile picture
@DAJHetherington
May 29 • 11 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I predicted an NDP win two weeks ago, and I'm standing by that prediction. These are my five reasons why NDP will form government tomorrow, and why the pollsters STILL have it wrong. #ableg #abpoli #abelxn23
1. Moderate conservatives in Calgary will choose Notley over Smith. These voters want low taxes, well-run services, and they don't tolerate nonsense. Rachel offers this, Smith doesn't. This thread explains why they will deliver Calgary for the NDP:
2. Vote inefficiency means that if UCP only wins the popular vote by 2%, as pollsters predict, NDP wins the election. If UCP only gets 50% provincially, they're down to 45% or less in Calgary, and lose all but the deep south. They need at least a draw in Calgary to win.
3. Polls have missed this shift in Calgary because they're applying provincial totals to the city races. UCP won 55% province-wide in 2019, and they're polling 48-50% now. They didn't lose that 5% evenly. If rural support is steady, the votes they've lost are in the cities.
4. The 2019 Alberta Party vote will go almost entirely NDP. Pollsters seem to think it will split, but this shows a fundamental misunderstanding of ABP voters. They're mostly liberals who will chose Notley over Smith, a major boost in some Calgary races.
5. Engagement was all on the UCP's side in 2019, and now it's on NDP's. Adding the conservatives that will stay home out of disgust to the ones that will flip gives NDP all the Calgary seats it needs. In other words, UCP vote will underperform projections.
My method may not be scientific, but my observations are based on thousands of real conversations in a Calgary battleground district. I know my district better than any pollster, and I've witnessed a 20-point swing that tells me my "toss-up" district is really NDP +6 or more.
My district is just 1 of 87 races, but it's not an island. In fact, it looks like most other Calgary districts. For the reason's I've listed above, I think the ThinkHQ poll has it right. The others are relying too heavily on 2019 and province-wide data.
A special thank you to everyone that has been following and sharing my election posts.
To those leaving bookmarks on all my predictions, I know why you're doing that.
Jonathan has the visuals here:

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More from @DAJHetherington

Derek Hetherington Profile picture
May 28
I doubt this claim. Overall advance vote was 8.1% higher than 2019, a year that saw high conservative engagement. All indications are that UCP engagement has fallen, while NDP is up. This short thread on party data explains why this claim is unsupported at best. #AbElection2023
Most people don't know this, but the parties know if you've voted. All parties have access to the voter roll, including whether or not you've cast your ballot. This helps campaigns in getting out their voters and spares voters from being contacted after they've voted.
However, parties aren't told WHO the voter selected. Parties can only find this out by contacting voters, and their information on this is far from perfect. You can't talk to every voter every cycle. If you're lucky, you'll identify 30-40% of your voters.
Read 6 tweets
Derek Hetherington Profile picture
May 27
Thanks to everyone sharing my threads about the outrageously inaccurate #abelxn23 polling. I hope post-election there will be a serious discussion about polling practices, influence, and ethics. This thread discusses the legal requirements for polls. #ableg #abpoli Image
The Alberta Elections Act sets out a general requirement for election surveys in section 135. Pollsters must register with the Chief Electoral Officer, but there's no certification. Anyone can call themselves a pollster regardless of their affiliation or qualifications. ImageImage
There are some general disclosure requirements, including who commissioned the poll and some basic details, but methodology is up to the pollster. There is no set standard. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Derek Hetherington Profile picture
May 27
This is very encouraging. Notley is going to Calgary South-East and Calgary-Lougheed, districts UCP won by 61/19 and 66/25 in 2019. Leaders don't spend the final days of races in districts they don't think they can win. If South Calgary is in play, UCP is toast. #ableg #abelxn23
This thread explains why the pollsters have completely underestimated the magnitude of the shift that has occurred in #yyc. #ableg #abpoli #abelxn23
More pollster-shaming here:
Read 5 tweets
Derek Hetherington Profile picture
Aug 31, 2022
I spoke to a young doctor today who is waiting on the outcome of the next election to decide whether to open his practice in Alberta or in another province. The next election is a referendum on the future of public health care in Alberta (short thread). #ableg
Last month I spoke to a couple that had just completed their degrees, one in nursing and the other in medicine. They were packing up their apartment to move to BC. Our investment of hundreds of thousands of dollars lost thanks to our government's hostility towards health workers.
Covid was a challenge for every jurisdiction, but most of the damage done to Alberta's health system has been self-inflicted. Speaking to dozens of health workers over the past two months, every one, even UCP supporters, tell me the problem is management, both AHS and government.
Read 6 tweets

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