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NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
@falsel_net
May 29 • 8 tweets • 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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Comparative study United States of America - Federal Republic of Germany.

#Epidemiology #Influenza #Covid19 #Mortality

🧵Validated data sources 2015 - 2021:
➡️app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
The Influenza Epidemic was truly severe in 2018.

USA: >42.000 †
FRG: >25.000 †

Ref:
-cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
-de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grippesai….


Comparative mortality rates:
➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
The prevalence of Influenza B in 2018 was high,

but Influenza B (Yamagata) was recently eradicated:
ImageImage
Comparative study United States of America - Federal Republic of Germany.

#Epidemiology

In 2021 there was no Influenza (B) Epidemic.
In 2021 the Coronavirus #Delta became dominant.

USA: >720.000 †
FRG: >120.000 †

➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
In 2021 there was no Influenza (B) Epidemic, but increased transmissibility and Pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 #Delta:

➡️eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…

➡️app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo… ImageImage
Mortality rates in 2021 were increasingly higher since #SARSCoV2 #Delta #B16172 spread during Summer.

Comparative mortality rates:
mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
A longterm perspective would reveal no excess mortality over lower quartile weekly data during years without an epidemic, e.g. 2011 as compared to 2022 in Germany:

➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
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More from @falsel_net

NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Apr 21
CBS week 14 over'sterfte: 147
Nameldingen +41 t/m week 13.
In week 14 zijn 3.236 overlijdens gepubliceerd;
sterfte als gevolg #SARSCoV2 (complicaties): 610 Geschat dodental t.o.v. 2019 bevolking >105.000 bij meer dan 50 mio #SARSCoV2 infecties.

➡️cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/… Image
Het CBS 'verwachtte' 2023 aantal overledenen in Nederland is zoals voorgaande jaren 10-15% te hoog; gezien het feit dat al heel veel mensen (in 20/21/22) overleden aan- of door #Corona, en overlevenden dus een lager sterfterisico zouden moeten hebben. Image
Door extreem hoge #SARSCoV2 prevalentie zijn ook iets meer jonge(re) mensen overleden: XBB* recombinanten omzeilen 'immuniteit' en her-infecteren iedereen vrij snel. Het aantal oudere mensen dat overleed was geschat bijna drie keer zo hoog als verwacht had kunnen worden: Image
Read 5 tweets
NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Apr 3
Not quite sure what to make out of all this.
Just updated available- and reported-data..

Deaths /mio /day Early March = 0.04 Cases/100k/day Early Feb + 0.02 % XBB.1.5* Latelyreported - 0.03 % Vaxx'd + 0.2 %BoostedBivalent - 1.1 Blue

acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc… Image
Data would imply that vax conferred durable protection. Caveat small data sample. And, reporting standards may vary across selected states. Still, I wouldn't expect XBB.1.5* to be more mortal, if population transmission were to be reasonably contained.

➡️frontiersin.org/articles/10.33… Image
Population mortality from XBB.1.5* could roughly equal 2.500 to 3.500 deaths per week in the USA, which coincidentally be similar to the proxy excess-over-prepandemic-lower-quartiles during week 6, 2023, mostly pertaining to people aged 65 - 85.

➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Image
Read 10 tweets
NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Mar 30
Week 12 CBS over'sterfte: 359.
Nameldingen -12 t/m week 11 🤨
In week 12 zijn 3.601 overlijdens gepubliceerd;
sterfte als gevolg #SARSCoV2 (complicaties): 845
Geschat dodental t.o.v. 2019 bevolking <104.000
bij meer dan 5.4 mio #SARSCoV2 infecties: Een topprestatie @RIVM_vDissel Image
Het CBS 'verwachtte' 2023 aantal overledenen in Nederland is zoals voorgaande jaren 10-15% te hoog; gezien het feit dat al veel mensen (in 20/21/22) moesten overlijden aan- of door #Corona, en overlevenden dus een lager sterfterisico zouden moeten hebben..
cbs.nl/nl-nl/maatwerk… Image
Door sterk gestegen #SARSCoV2 prevalentie twee weken geleden, zijn nu ook veel jongere mensen overleden: BA.2.75* varianten herinfecteerden vooral de jeugd en XBB* recombinanten omzeilen ouderere immuniteit.
Image
Read 6 tweets
NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Mar 23
Week 11 CBS over'sterfte: 368.
Nameldingen +39 t/m week 10.
In week 11 zijn 3.691 overlijdens gepubliceerd;
sterfte als gevolg #SARSCoV2 (complicaties): 866
Geschat dodental t.o.v. 2019 bevolking ~103.000
bij meer dan 5.2 mio #SARSCoV2 infecties.

➡️cbs.nl/nl-nl/maatwerk… Image
Het CBS 'verwachtte' 2023 aantal overledenen in Nederland is zoals voorgaande jaren 10-15% te hoog; gezien het feit dat al veel mensen (in 20/21/22) overleden aan- of door #Corona, en overlevenden dus een lager sterfterisico zouden moeten hebben. Image
Bij sterk gestegen #SARSCoV2 prevalentie, zijn veel jongeren overleden: BA.2.75* varianten herinfecteerden vooral jongere mensen en XBB* recombinanten omzeilen veelal oudere immuniteit.
Image
Read 6 tweets
NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Mar 20
Estimating the impact on mortality (Y) of Coronavirus XBB.1.5* community transmission as compared to the impact of percentage total population fully vaccinated and boosted in selected blue or red states: Multiple Linear Regression analysis.

Model:
statskingdom.com/410multi_linea… Image
Cross-sectional analyses are descriptive (not longitudinal), in order to avoid predictive bias & allow for real-time validation.

Data:
Vaccination: npr.org/sections/healt…
XBB.1.5*: outbreak.info/location-repor…
Reported fatalities #Covid19: datagraver.com/corona/#/?regi… Image
SARSCoV2, %XBB.1.5* is positively correlated with #Covid19 mortality across selected states.

Deaths /mio /week = 2.4 + 0.2 % BXX.1.5* - 0.5 % Vaxx'd + 1 %Boosted - 11.8 Blue

Multiple correlation (R) equals 0.7, means strong correlation between predicted (ŷ) and actual data: Image
Read 10 tweets
NoCovid 🇪🇺 Kano Profile picture
Mar 19
Estimating the impact on mortality (Y) of Coronavirus XBB.1.5* community transmission as compared to the impact of percentage total population fully vaccinated and boosted in selected blue or red states: Multiple Linear Regression analysis.

Model:
statskingdom.com/410multi_linea… Image
Cross-sectional analyses are descriptive (not longitudinal), in order to avoid predictive bias & allow for real-time validation.

Data:
Vaccination: npr.org/sections/healt…
XBB.1.5*: outbreak.info/location-repor…
Fatalities #Covid19: datagraver.com/corona/#/?regi… Image
SARSCoV2, %XBB.1.5* is positively correlated with #Covid19 mortality across selected states.

Deaths/100k/week = 23.8 + 2.5 %BXX.1.5* - 4.8 %Vaxx'd + 10.3 %Boosted - 118.4 Blue.

Multiple correlation (R) equals 0.7, means strong correlation between predicted (ŷ) and actual data: Image
Read 10 tweets

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