Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Mortality

Most recents (24)

Time to share some thoughts and questions following the .@medrxivpreprint first release of results from the #SolidarityTrial that compared local standard care to #remdesivir, #HydroxyChloroquine #lopinavir_ritonavir and #interferon for treatment of patients with #COVID19
I have read the #solidarityTrial preprint: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Its supplementary material:medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

its posted protocol: who.int/publications/m…

The CRF: who.int/publications/i…

The final report from #ACTT1 for contrast: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Everyone has focused on the results, which is understandable, yet understanding the specifics in #SolidarityTrial design compared to the #ACTT1 design, may bring light into the differences reported between trials and may give a way to do better in #COVID19 #therapeutics
Read 26 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/15/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/?p=6644
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries | Nature Medicine

nature.com/articles/s4159…

#demographics #dynamics #mortality #magnitude #pandemic
Read 6 tweets
"#Herdimmunity is ‘a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence'."

Thread to summarize new #COVID19 paper by @TheLancet via Professor @AlexWFriedrich1.

/1


#INFECTIVITY / #MORTALITY

"Its high infectivity, combined with the susceptibility of unexposed populations to a NEW virus, creates conditions for rapid community spread."

"The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is several-fold HIGHER than that of seasonal influenza."

/2
YOUNG PEOPLE / #IMMUNITY

"...infection can lead to persisting illness, including in young, previously healthy people"

"It is unclear how long protective immunity lasts"

"SARS-CoV-2 is capable of re-infecting people who have already had the disease"

/3
Read 6 tweets
1/x French expert takes debate in new direction

Prof Jean-Francois #Toussaint, Physiology, Uni Paris, Dir IRMES

Quote

„..giving people back their “ability to taste and live” .. joys of life..

..“fill” life rather than keep ourselves “in a cave” (#lockdown) for perpetuity.“ >
2/x con‘t quoting,

„is [there] a 2nd wave in France?

..there is a very slow and small but regular increase of ~30 to 40 deaths/day,
..only in southern regions of France. These regions were not directly affected in 1st wave..“ >
3/x con‘t quoting Prof #Toussaint,

On testing -

„We are the ONLY continent in the world that has the means to track the virus to EVERY EUROPEAN NOSE.

EVERY NOSE has been targeted and what we see is that we are diagnosing people by saying that they have the virus.“ >
Read 10 tweets
1/x Quoting,
„3- The Median Age of COVID Deaths Is Equal to Life Expectancy, But No One Mentions That Fact

We didn’t talk enough about the median age of COVID deaths, ~81 years old — which is telling. This age is equivalent to life expectancy. ...why no one talked about it!“
2/x Quoting,

„4- Interventions ..Masking .. #Lockdowns #Suppressing #Immune

...suppress immune

... disturb immune system ..stressed

If...quarantine [in small] room...scare

..immune system..negatively impacted,
..likely to get sick..

#less #likely to naturally fight virus“
3/x Quoting
„5- Virus Losing Steam And Pandemic Was Essentially Done In Europe in May

In most European countries, pandemic is over [since early May]

In... India & Brazil, curve is slowing down —
...more and more time for # of deaths to double

..virus globally losing steam...“
Read 7 tweets
#covid19 #deaths in India & other nations, here I explain several ways to have reliable estimates. Of all range of estimates, the probability of deaths being actually lower should not be ignored. In the absence of data, if undercounting is possible, so is over-attribution 1 of N
First, deaths due to #COVID19 are far lower compared to other reasons. @DMavalankar and Dr Divya Nair explain why we should not focus too much on India’s COVID-19 #Mortality and not loose focus on deaths due to other Diseases. science.thewire.in/health/indias-… 2 of N
Second , as Prof K Srinath Reddy of @thePHFI explained here, a sharp spike in home deaths over a long period is also not likely to go unnoticed. bbc.com/news/world-asi… 3 of N
Read 5 tweets
We reviewed the first analysis of mortality among patients receiving #ConvalescentPlasma therapy from #COVID19 survivors through the US Expanded Access Program. The effect of #ConvalescentPlasma on #COVID19 mortality has not previously been well described bit.ly/3gpFGDn
In full disclosure, the lead author is based at Hopkins; however, none of the NCRC reviewers were direct collaborators. Thus, the article had an independent external review by someone without current or past professional collaborations with the author and no Hopkins affiliation.
In this preprint on @medrxivpreprint, Joyner et al analyzed 35,322 hospitalized #COVID19 patients from 1,809 sites overseen by @MayoClinic, from April 4-July 4. They assessed if timing of #ConvalescentPlasma reduced #mortality and if higher doses of #antibodies reduced mortality.
Read 9 tweets
1/x Melbourne Uni head [Prof Duncan #Maskell #infectious_diseases #expert] says #restrictions could do #more_harm than #virus

Quoting
#Maskell says Australia's #lockdown mindset..risks more damage than virus itself, particularly to young people’s lives

amp.theage.com.au/politics/victo…
2/x (con’t) “..#move #beyond #lockdown or #risk ...#greater #loss of #life from #poverty & #suicide

"When do #measures... #do #more_damage #than #disease itself?" Prof #Maskell said

"...if we carry on in #lockdown #mindset for too long, we will #seriously #damage #young lives”
3/3 "...some #death#rates #increased, there’s #more_suicide ...,"

"If... #economy #not #functioning,
we’ll have #serious #poverty problems,
...lead to #increased_morbidity and
#mortality in #society."
Read 3 tweets
Posting some reflections on the #ACTT & #RECOVERY trials related to #remdesivir & #dexamethasone for the treatment of #COVID19

Those results feel like definitive advances, but we need to realize their limitations and need for confirmation despite everyone's #pandemic fatigue

1/ Image
There are lot of skeptics in and outside of #Twitter on the results of both trials, strong emotions regarding big-pharma made medications, the way the #EUA was made, also about use of #steroids in the #ICU that has a quite rocky history among those who run those units.
And we need to acknowledge from the outset all sorts of basic, and not so basic, emotions that come in the doing clinical trials, exacerbated by academic cliques, national defense issues (and nationalisms) that can get exacerbated with the strains in health systems. Image
Read 21 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/07/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/08/07/dai…
The Pandemic's Biggest Mystery Is Our Own Immune System - The Atlantic

theatlantic.com/health/archive…

#pandemic #system #immune #mystery
In northern China, scientists have found what may be the 2 billion-year-old birthmarks of Earth's first supercontinent

sciencex.com/news/2020-08-n…

#china #geological #earth
Read 10 tweets
#Sweden - #Mortality deaths per months 1980-2020

"I think it's like a severe flu season"
Professor Johan Giesecke

(update, putting all charts into one single pinned thread )
#France - deaths per months 1980-2020

In January 2017 more people died than in April 2020. But we saw no TGVs with ICU patients, and had no #crisesainitaire.
#Germany - deaths per months 1990-2020

In 2017/18, Germany was faced with the deadliest flu season of the last 30 years. Nobody took notice. We missed it. @Markus_Soeder did not protect us. And we had plenty of toilet paper.
Read 9 tweets
[Thread]
South Africa’s population, mid-2020, is estimated at 59,62 million.

Read more here: bit.ly/38QRzQR

#StatsSA #population
Births are the main driver of #population growth in SA. For the period 2019–2020 the population is estimated to have grown by around 0,8 Million.

Read more here: bit.ly/38QRzQR

#StatsSA
More than half of the #population live in 3 provinces - GP, KZN and WC. GP remains SA’s most populated province with approximately 15,5 million people (26%).

Read more here: bit.ly/38QRzQR

#StatsSA
Read 23 tweets
#AbbottResign @GovAbbott @GregAbbott_TX Agreed, Abbott HAS to go! BUT let's be clear, rising #s are only because of rising testing! LOOK AROUND, NO one is dying! The #Mortality rate is all time low. No #Pandemic! If #Masks SO effective, why #Oregon only making white people wear?
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/18/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/dai…

Decision-Making in a Time of Crisis – O’Reilly

oreilly.com/radar/decision…

#DecisionMaking #crisis
Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems | Nature Ecology & Evolution

nature.com/articles/s4155…

#impacts #scales #ecology #freshwater #ecosystems
Responsible Investment needs a bigger toolbox - Preventable Surprises

preventablesurprises.com/publications/b…

#investment #toolbox
Read 9 tweets
Tabulated the topline results released by the #recoverytrial team on #hydroxychloroquine & #dexamethasone, and went over their protocol (recoverytrial.net/results) to better digest them.

Basic stuff:
- hospitalized patients @ 175 NHS centres
- open label, 5 initial arms
- thread—
Important point from #RECOVERYTrial protocol

- if a patient had a #contraindication to one of the intervention arms, according to the clinical care team at the site, that particular arm was not available to that patient at the time of #randomization
So if a patient enrolled in #recoverytrial had a contraindication to #dexamethasone, that patient was not allowed to be randomized to that arm. So the results need to be interpreted in the context of no contraindication to steroids: already on steroids, #immunosuppression, etc.
Read 11 tweets
1/6 We document trends and levels in mortality indicators. But our family of databases is actually bigger #HMD #STMF #poptwitter #mortality #epitwitter 👇 mortality.org
2/6 The main HMD collection includes data coming from national vital registration system with near complete coverage, with an apparent low degree of age bias, and that require little to no modeling. The collection includes currently 41 populations. Image
3/6 Now for the first time ever we are also monitoring weekly mortality levels in as close to real time as we can for 19 countries -and growing!
Check the Short-Term Mortality Fluctuation (STMF) data series! Image
Read 6 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/03/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/03/dai…

An interpretable mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients | Nature Machine Intelligence

nature.com/articles/s4225…
#model #intelligence #machine #prediction #mortality
“Immune to Evidence”: How Dangerous Coronavirus Conspiracies Spread — ProPublica

propublica.org/article/immune…

#conspiracy #evidence #immune #spread
The public do not understand logarithmic graphs used to portray COVID-19 | LSE Covid-19

blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/0…

#public #Graphics
Read 12 tweets
Include the true value of nature when rebuilding economies after coronavirus

nature.com/articles/d4158…

#value #rebuild  #nature #coronavirus
Cold War nuke tests changed rainfall: study

phys.org/news/2020-05-c…

#rain #rainfall  #ClimateChange #ColdWar
Read 8 tweets
Let’s talk about the proverbial elephant in the room RE #CompassionateRelease of persons incarcerated in #prisons in the midst of #COVID19. A [long] thread with thanks to @briewsf @DrNovisky @GeriPowerMD 1/21
While a partnership between @FAMMFoundation @NACDL @WashLaw4CR is tackling petitions in the @OfficialFBOP Why don’t we see governors and other leadership extending release to many of the #vulnerable housed in state #prisons? 2/21
By #vulnerable, I mean those persons who meet #CDC guidelines for greatest risk of serious illness due to #COVID19 -- persons over 65 (#olderadults), those with #chronichealth problems including severe #asthma #liverdisease or are #immunocompromised (#hepatitis) 3/21
Read 21 tweets
"The live SARS-like coronavirus SL-CoV-WIV1 has been isolated for the first time from bat droppings; and such virus has been confirmed to invade the host cells through the ACE2 of human beings..." ImageImageImage
Bat Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Like Coronavirus WIV1
Encodes an Extra Accessory Protein, ORFX, Involved in Modulation of the Host Immune Response. (2016) #ZhengLiShi #PeterDaszak #EcoHealth
Funding: #NIAID 110964 ImageImageImageImage
In this study, we have developed a fast and cost-effective method
for reverse genetics of coronaviruses by combining two approaches developed by others..As the genomes can be divided into multiple short fragments, mutations can be introduced into individual
fragments easily. ImageImageImageImage
Read 68 tweets
Day 51.
24 days since the "intelligent Lock-down".  

Mortality numbers provided by @statistiekcbs

#corona #coronanl #cornoravirus #COVID19  #COVIDー19
#COVID2019NL  #COVIDNL
#covid19Nederland  
#rivm #Mortality Image
- Hospitalizations are trending down.
- Testing is increasing
- South Holland is still adding the most cases.
- Deaths: Still trending upwards ImageImageImageImage
ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
#medtwitter and everyone. Pls read this thread. I want ppl to know what those in #nursinghomes and #PALTC med are doing, without the recognition. For every person u save from #COVID inpatient, please know, we're working non-stop to help you, and it's taking its toll. 1/
As early as 3/1 we've shut down visitors, tried to mitigate spread. But we're not the hospital and have less resources. And hospitals rely on us to d/c patients who can't go home. We're taking your pts, knowing full well they may bee carriers of #COVID but testing was not done.2/
Simultaneously we've been forcing the hard conversations, trying to get patients/surrogates to understand the futility in #fullcode status + even hospitalization right now. Meanwhile families have not been allowed to visit in 4 wks +. Despite r efforts, #COVID is in our own 3/
Read 9 tweets
"Je schneller, effektiver & gerechter wir #Covid19 bewältigen, desto mehr Leiden kann verhindert werden, und desto geringer die Schäden, wirtschaftlich, sozial & eben auch klimapolitisch."
@Luisamneubauer
stern.de/politik/luisa-…
UK and US, esp NY shooting up ~exponentially
Read 16 tweets
#Storytelling.

Tonight I'm going to share highlights from the 2010 "Scenarios for the Future of Technology & Int'l Development" report produced by The Rockefeller Foundation & Global Business Network. Not just the "Lock Step" scenario, but all 4 scenarios. [54 page report]
Following Event 201 (Oct 18 2019), we must concede that the ruling class has been gifted with phenomenal and prophetic intuitions & insights. (They truly are the chosen ones.) Thus it is worthwhile, even mandatory, to study their scenario exercises & simulations.
"We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions... scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively." [p 4]
Read 73 tweets

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