Read on Twitter
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Power politics dominates Azerbaijan's position in both peace deal and Nagorno-Karabakh separatist region future status:⤵️
1) Aliyev offers amnesty to Nagorno-Karabakh de facto administration, but only if it dissolves bodies that govern the unrecognized region; 2) Baku says that it could use military force to take control if it wanted to, but it shows patience;⤵️
3) Aliyev is clearly not interested in any kind of special status for Nagorno-Karabakh and instead demands full surrender and radical revision of the status-quo; 4) Russian peacekeeping forces, but even more so reputational costs and int sanctions are the⤵️
main obstacles to Baku taking control of the region by force; 5) Similarly, Aliyev suggests that Baku is the stronger side at the negotiating table and is in no hurry to sign a peace treaty (if it does not serve Azeri interests).
Meanwhile, the EU is supplying external legitimacy to Pashinyan's verbal recognition of Azeri territorial integrity, including the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. This has serious costs for Pashinyan at home because Baku has no plans to grant special guarantees for Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Armenian side insists on the urgency of offering security guarantees for the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev has been very hawkish in his recent statements about the fact that Baku can easily control the breakaway region if necessary.
https://twitter.com/v_hunanyan/status/1663925661130448897
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
