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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
May 30 • 7 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Georgia: PM Garibashvili basically excused Russia's aggression against Ukraine with Kyiv's intention to join NATO and warned the EU not to ignore Georgia's candidate status because serios costs could follow. A few observations:⤵️
1) The ruling party in Georgia is deliberately antagonizing relations with Western & Ukrainian decision makers alike; 2) The discourse used by Garibashvili replicates what China, India and the actors of the Global South are operating based on distorted Russian interpretations;⤵️
3) The govt is well aware of how toxic any association with Russia is; thus, the use of Russian disinformation talking points is deliberate because it is too repetitive to be accidental or made of cognitive dissonance; 4) The govt tries to⤵️
play on the geopolitical and strategic costs and the fears of the West, if it does not offer EU candidate status. This might seem like a self-harm strategy, but the ruling party is in political survival mode;⤵️
5) The govt seeks political benefits for itself, not national interests. With the 2024 legislative elections, Georgian Dream is willingly normalizing skepticism towards the West/EU, mixed with propaganda shots of Russia.⤵️
The Georgian govt's discourse revolves around a sort of "moral debt" from the West towards Georgia linked to favoring Ukraine and Moldova for EU candidate status or the lack of military support against Russian aggression (the war of 2008).⤵️
PM Garibashvili's discourse is dedicated to both the Western public and the national propaganda and public in Georgia. It is meant to to trigger and shape political reactions based on which the govt is adjusting its domestic and foreign policy.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Jun 1
#EU: The European Political Community summit in Moldova is kicking off. This is a geopolitical event and the Russian aggression against Ukraine contributed to the mobilization of European leaders to join it. Read more about the nature and functions of EPC in our latest article👇
I am opening a thread on this event: 1) Zelensky was in Odessa and from there he can travel to Chisinau by train. Many international journalists are waiting at the main train station in Moldova’s capital; 2) Erdogan is not coming and Turkey will be underrepresented.⤵️
3) Trains from Chisinau run to Bulboaca (35 km) to Mimi Castle to cover the summit.
Read 13 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 31
#EU_Enlargement: The EU is offering support to the new candidate states like Moldova. However, it is curious how the information about the support is communicated. Here are some short remarks:⤵️
1) The lowering of the roaming tariffs is a right step, but this is a spillover effect from the recent decision adopted for the Western Balkans. In other words, the measure is not exceptional and it can be replicated to other⤵️
small countries in the Wider Europe (not to Ukraine for now); 2) The EU speaks about increasing the amount of financial aid. However, it has already transferred or pledged more than 1 billion euro last year. So, out of 1.6 billion euros mentioned today 1.2 billion euros⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 30
#Moldova_EU: The decision of the EU Council to sanction a list of 5 persons (including fugitive oligarchs and a Russian cleptocrat), considered destabilizing the country (in favor of Russia), is coming into force. The Moldovan govt has advocated for this decision. ⤵️
However, it seems that the scope of the EU sanctions is partly misinterpreted. The Moldovan president claims that the sanctions make it possible to confiscate the assets of the sanctioned politicians, some of whom are fugitive oligarchs. This is not exactly how ⤵️
individual EU sanctions work: 1) the sanctions regime allows for visa bans and asset freezes; 2) financial transactions for sanctioned persons are prohibited; 3) sanctions do not provide for confiscation in any way (unless this ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 30
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Power politics dominates Azerbaijan's position in both peace deal and Nagorno-Karabakh separatist region future status:⤵️
1) Aliyev offers amnesty to Nagorno-Karabakh de facto administration, but only if it dissolves bodies that govern the unrecognized region; 2) Baku says that it could use military force to take control if it wanted to, but it shows patience;⤵️
3) Aliyev is clearly not interested in any kind of special status for Nagorno-Karabakh and instead demands full surrender and radical revision of the status-quo; 4) Russian peacekeeping forces, but even more so reputational costs and int sanctions are the⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 15
#Moldova: The ruling party announced that it will initiate a withdrawal from the CIS because it did not help resolve the Transnistrian conflict or guard against energy pressure from Russia. This contradicts previous statements by the ruling party on the gradual exit from⤵️
certain CIS agreements that may conflict with the future process of accession to the EU. From an economic point of view, trade with Russia has been falling in the last decade. In energy terms, Moldova now has alternative routes.⤵️
The high costs will have been offset by further integration with the EU: loss of the FTA with the CIS and the visa-free regime. These two policies will lose the liberalized character with the CIS region and Russia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 14
#Russia_Sanctions: The G7 and the EU are considering sanctioning the importation of Russian gas pipelines and partly also the oil pipeline (Druzhba northern branch) to prevent EU states from changing their position in the future. This seems a kind of self-sanction based on⤵️
the logic that the EU has found enough alternative sources, including large volumes of LNG from the US. An exemption will be needed for the import of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine (daily up to 43 mcm).
kyivindependent.com/russian-media-…
Read 4 tweets

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