Thread by @andrewmichta

🧵Today I had an exchange with a European colleague that made me think about where #EU may be in a decade. Will the EU become an integrated autonomous pole in the emerging global system, even becoming a competitor to the US as my colleague suggested? I think not. Here is why: 1/9

The #EU still lacks attributes of a nation-state (at its core, it's a treaty-based organization), and a number of current variables defy EU's further integration. The external threat Europe faces today in the wake of the war in #Ukraine will prioritize defense and security. 2/9

The relatively benign external environment in which the EU evolved prior to 2022 is over (terrorism and the Balkan wars were not existential threats). Another factor mitigating against further centralization will be economic growth (high in the East but low overall in Europe).3/9

#EU will be increasingly confronted with a binary of further integration vs. defense. Member-states have already prioritized @NATO as the vehicle to ensure their security and defense; the #EU lacks a meaningful defense/security function and would still lack it if centralized. 4/9

Considering this demographic picture and the current high-threat security environment, I find it implausible that requisite resources will be diverted towards integration. The war in #Ukraine has shown that Europe is relying more, not less, on the United States for security. 5/9

Hence, I don't see much political space for bold #EU centralization projects; rather, Europe's path forward appears to be increasingly crisis management. The increasingly unstable regional and global security environment has already pushed those states most exposed to rearm. 6/9

As US competition with #China and #Russia heats up, I find it implausible that Europe will be able somehow stay out of the fray. European NATO countries are already invested in #Ukraine; the idea that by "de-risking" the EU can stay in the Chinese market strikes me as naive. 7/9

China continues to try to exploit European technology and PI, the more so as decoupling on the US side gathers speed. For 30yrs national security considerations were not paramount when it came to trade/investment. This era is over, and the EU is beginning to learn this lesson.8/9

In view of deteriorating security in Europe, I find it unlikely that further centralization (AKA "federalization") of the #EU will proceed; and if it does, that it will succeed. Defense is at its core a national-level effort, and that's where the focus and resources will go.9/End