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🧵The weeks leading up to the @NATO summit in Vilnius will arguably be among the most important since the end of the Cold War. Much of what happens will depend on how much territory #Ukraine will liberate before the summit, and if it will achieve a strategic breakthrough. 1/4
The results of the ongoing internal discussion in @NATO and in Washington about security guarantees for #Ukraine going forward, and most importantly, whether - and if so how and when - Ukraine will be brought into NATO will be the defining deliverables from Vilnius. 2/4
Another important signal will be from what country the new @NATO SecGen will be selected. I have argued he/she should come from one of the Eastern flank countries to bring the experience of facing the Russian threat directly across the border. We need this sense of purpose. 3/4
Another key decision will concern the scope of continued military and economic assistance to #Ukraine going forward. NATO allies have to show their determination not to waver in their support of Ukraine. #Russia will exploit any ambiguity, and #China is watching closely. 4/End
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