Doug Lewin Profile picture
Jun 17 6 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Yesterday at 6:31CT, one of the four nuclear units in Texas stopped producing power. A new fast acting backup reserve (ECRS, which is mostly batteries) stabilized the grid & prevented bigger problems. ERCOT has said nothing about this outside of what's below but... (cont) #txlege ImageImage
...this is potentially a big deal. The public deserves answers about what this means for this week. If it doesn't come back by Tuesday, the probability of rolling outages is higher than it otherwise would be. ERCOT is projecting a margin of only 2,582MW at 7pm Tuesday. Not good. Image
I still think at this point the power will stay on, but it's becoming more important to tell the public to pre-cool homes early in the day & try to use less between 6-8pm. Would be better for this to be systematic and valued, so ERCOT would have another tool to deploy if needed.
There are right now nearly 10 gigawatts of thermal power plants offline. "Typical" is 5GW, "high" is 8.5GW" and "extreme" is 11.2GW, so we're right now almost exactly in between high and extreme but the trend is not good. Those numbers are trending up over the last week. #txlege
To have outages, you generally need 3 things all to happen:
✔️ high demand (projected to be 82.6GW of Tuesday; all time record is 80)
✔️high thermal outages (nearing extreme levels)
✖️low wind & solar (looking to be at or near ERCOT projections for normal levels). #energytwitter
I'm not worried about Tuesday / Wednesday outages yet, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

This is a test not only of the grid but of the communications from @ERCOT_ISO & @PUCTX .

So far, they're sorely lacking. 6/end 🧵
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Doug Lewin

Doug Lewin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @douglewinenergy

Jun 19
#ERCOT grid update: Things will be tight on the grid today and tomorrow — very tight. ERCOT projecting 82.9 gigawatt peak @ 4pm and a spread between supply and demand of only 1800 megawatts tomorrow around 7pm. #txlege #energytwitter 1/ Image
Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter #txenergy Image
... is still producing ~9GW in the hour of tightest reserves. The 3+GW of batteries in ERCOT are mostly providing backup reserves in case of shortage (like when a major power plant goes offline like a nuke did last week) but is also injecting 500MW to the market when needed. 3/ ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Jun 17
85% of customers are without power in Harrison & Marion counties in the midst of a deadly heat wave. Storm last night was devastating; power not expected for a week in some areas. Would be nice if the Governor could stop vetoing bills long enough to declare a disaster. #txlege Image
Shelby County: 75% of customers without power.
Gregg County: >50%
Upshur County: 70%
Camp County: >50%
Franklin County: 50%

This is a major disaster and hardly anyone outside of East Texas is talking about it. #energytwitter #txlege
ketk.com/news/local-new…
Currently 81,000 homes or businesses are without power in @SWEPCoNews' territory in Texas. That's nearly half of their customers. They're requesting mutual aid. #txlege
Read 8 tweets
May 22
SB 7, the biggest grid bill of the session, is scheduled to be up next after the current bill. I'll live tweet about it when it starts. Check out the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter about what to look for in today's debates linked in the tweet below. #txlege #energytwitter 1/ Image
Chairman Hunter says let's talk about #SB7, the lobby annuity bill. Points to the gallery and says its the "owner box" up there and it "should be down here," pointing to the gallery. He says it's about, like the Pink Floyd song, "Money."

And so it begins. Buckle up. #txlege
Hunter says the bottom line of this bill "What's the cost to the taxpayer." He says generators don't want anything but "an open check book."

Yep.

He says he "put a billion dollar limit in here." Hunter says he keeps asking what will it cost? "They can't tell me."
Read 22 tweets
May 21
Senate B&C Cmte starting in a minute. Agenda lists only "pending business," but, among other things, they will consider PUC Sunset bill which could become a vehicle for all sorts of amendments. #txlege 1/🧵 capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/His…
Live video feed here: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
Also up for discussion for today is #HB5, to potentially create a successor economic development program to the one that ended in December last year. Details from @bradj_TX here:
They have paused the hearing while they wait for @CreightonForTX #txlege
Read 27 tweets
Feb 20
Still no "in depth operations review of resource availability" during Elliot from #ERCOT.

No presentation has been made to the @PUCTX about the 14.2GW of thermal generation offline 12/23 at 9am or the 30GW offline at some point 12/22-12/24. #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/
SPP put out some easy to read bar charts, so here's one I made, based off @cohan_ds info (I adjusted the rated capacity based on SARA report minus the mothballed plants).

Does this look like a major improvement to you? #txlege #energytwitter #ERCOT
I detailed the many coal & gas plants offline during Elliot in this thread 12/29. #ERCOT has this info, of cousre. It was posted on their website in raw form in December. It's now two months later, still no comprehensive report or root cause analysis.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 7
The Texas energy-only market is, to reprise Churchill, the worst form of energy market except for every other. It needs to evolve but should not be abandoned.

Big Senate hearing about the future of the #ERCOT market tomorrow. #txlege #txenergy 1/
douglewin.substack.com/p/a-reliable-a…
In the last 2 yrs, generating companies added 2,000MW of gas plants and they added another 393MW *last month* alone! There are 2,500MW w/ signed interconnections & another 10,000MW in the interconnection process.

There's no need for a PCM or the state to buy gas plants! 2/
Electric generating companies are also adding wind, solar, and storage, making Texas among the top states in all three. That's good! It saves consumers a lot of money: $1 billion a month last year through August! (And lowers pollution, too!)
#energytwitter
utilitydive.com/news/texas-sol…
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(