Thread by @andrewmichta

🧵It appears that as of now we have no consensus in @NATO to bring #Ukraine into the alliance, with the conversation having shifted to debating a formula that would provide assurances and support to Ukraine short of membership. These half measures will help, but not enough. 1/8

I won’t go into those proposals, as in my view none offers a clear path forward that Ukraine needs to rebuild after the war. Moscow banks that that the West will not stand up for what it preaches, and that it will push #Ukraine to a settlement that will cede UKR territory. 2/8

We continue to re-debate why #Russia invaded #Ukraine instead of focusing on how to defeat the invasion. And most of all, while govt documents and analytical pieces talk of a new era of great power competition, I have yet to see a clear articulation of what victory look like.3/8

We need to articulate what the end state in Europe looks like—not in terms of broad statements about “preserving the rules-based order” but in concrete terms that speak to geopolitics, alliances and power realignment. And how to ensure this outcome isn’t contested yet again. 4/8

As democracies debate the relative merits/demerits of bringing #Ukraine into @NATO, the focus is predominantly on risks, with little appreciation of positive contributions Ukraine would make to European and transatlantic security and defense. 5/8

#Ukraine has the largest armed forces in #Europe. It is battle-tested and it has demonstrated that, if properly equipped, it is capable of stopping the Russian invasion. Its projected peacetime strength of 300K would be a powerful addition to NATO’s deterrent capabilities .6/8

We need to bring into the conversation what #Ukraine can offer the alliance, rather than focusing predominantly on Russia’s reaction. It is time to articulate the architecture of European security post war that would provide the requisite stability to the Continent. 7/8

#Ukraine in @NATO would be transformative for European security. With Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, and with #Poland completing its massive rearmament program, the alliance would have means to deter #Russia regardless of how Moscow’s internal politics evolves. 7/End