Gas & coal outages are 40% above expected levels, which is actually an improvement from the last few days, but not in the high or extreme range. Demand response from large customers will likely make a big difference. Outages are still unlikely.
The communications from @ERCOT_ISO again are lacking. Should be telling tell people to pre-cool their homes, since there was plenty of capacity this morning and midday. Also, though the conservation call goes from 4 - 8pm, the following hour still looks tight. #txlege
Today would be a great day to optimize energy use to shift the peak. We’re doing a terrible job managing the peak in Texas — need to focus on things like high efficiency heat pumps, smart thermostats, smart EV charging, and more. #energytwitter
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A few takeaways from an eventful #txenergy/#ERCOT day:
- A major coal plant tripped at 7pm during the conservation call.
- Storage picked up the slack in a major way.
- The new backup reserve ECRS was deployed for 5 hrs.
- Prices were in the $1000's/MWh for ~4 hours. #txlege 1/
At 7:00, when reserves were very tight and a conservation call was in effect, a coal plant went offline.
This happens *a lot* during extreme temperatures. We'll know if a few days which plant it was. Happily for Texans, battery storage filled in the gap... (cont). #txenergy 2/
Storage replaced 75% of the lost coal in minutes.
Here you can see coal plants producing 11,744MW at 6:54pm; 10 minutes later it's down to 11,176. That's a sudden loss of 568MW.
At 6:54pm, batteries were producing 360MW. By 7:04, storage ramped to 783MW, an increase of 423MW.
#ERCOT grid update: Things will be tight on the grid today and tomorrow — very tight. ERCOT projecting 82.9 gigawatt peak @ 4pm and a spread between supply and demand of only 1800 megawatts tomorrow around 7pm. #txlege#energytwitter 1/
Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter#txenergy
... is still producing ~9GW in the hour of tightest reserves. The 3+GW of batteries in ERCOT are mostly providing backup reserves in case of shortage (like when a major power plant goes offline like a nuke did last week) but is also injecting 500MW to the market when needed. 3/
Yesterday at 6:31CT, one of the four nuclear units in Texas stopped producing power. A new fast acting backup reserve (ECRS, which is mostly batteries) stabilized the grid & prevented bigger problems. ERCOT has said nothing about this outside of what's below but... (cont) #txlege
...this is potentially a big deal. The public deserves answers about what this means for this week. If it doesn't come back by Tuesday, the probability of rolling outages is higher than it otherwise would be. ERCOT is projecting a margin of only 2,582MW at 7pm Tuesday. Not good.
I still think at this point the power will stay on, but it's becoming more important to tell the public to pre-cool homes early in the day & try to use less between 6-8pm. Would be better for this to be systematic and valued, so ERCOT would have another tool to deploy if needed.
85% of customers are without power in Harrison & Marion counties in the midst of a deadly heat wave. Storm last night was devastating; power not expected for a week in some areas. Would be nice if the Governor could stop vetoing bills long enough to declare a disaster. #txlege
Shelby County: 75% of customers without power.
Gregg County: >50%
Upshur County: 70%
Camp County: >50%
Franklin County: 50%
Currently 81,000 homes or businesses are without power in @SWEPCoNews' territory in Texas. That's nearly half of their customers. They're requesting mutual aid. #txlege
SB 7, the biggest grid bill of the session, is scheduled to be up next after the current bill. I'll live tweet about it when it starts. Check out the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter about what to look for in today's debates linked in the tweet below. #txlege#energytwitter 1/
Chairman Hunter says let's talk about #SB7, the lobby annuity bill. Points to the gallery and says its the "owner box" up there and it "should be down here," pointing to the gallery. He says it's about, like the Pink Floyd song, "Money."
Also up for discussion for today is #HB5, to potentially create a successor economic development program to the one that ended in December last year. Details from @bradj_TX here: