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H I Sutton Profile picture
@CovertShores
Aug 23 • 10 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Scrolly
**UPDATE**

Following #Ukraine’s systematic attacks on key infrastructure and supply lines to Crimea, #Russia is beginning to show signs its working

Yesterday Ru gov asked hotels etc to report food and fuel stocks
Via @JanR210 < follow this account

Thread 🧵 1/n Image
2/n
 This may be strategically significant both because Crimea is a route to reinforce Ru positions in southern Ukraine, and because Crimea itself is the jewel in itself

There is also a major naval base in Sevastopol Image
3
The July attack on Kerch bridge by a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) disrupted the main supply line. The threat of this being cut is very real for Russia.
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4
Russia has been building a temporary extra part of the bridge, but it is still limited

Nod @MT_Anderson Image
5
Russia tried to use navy landing ships to sail supplies to Crimea but these are few, and Ukraine successfully attacked one


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6
Ukraine also targeted the tankers moving fuel for military aircraft and vehicles. The tanker Sig has a massive hole in it
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7
And in the north, the bridges connecting Crimea to rest of southern Ukraine have been seriously damaged and constricted Image
8
Will we see panic fuel buying in Crimea? Runs on supermarkets?

I suspect that we haven’t seen the end of this chapter in the war
Correction on my translation of original post, inventory of power generators /batteries

Same overall perspective applies.

Crimea has weak power generation and distribution network
10
Thread focused on Crimea, but fuel shortages also further east

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More from @CovertShores

H I Sutton Profile picture
Aug 4
How it started. How it’s going.

In February 2022 #Russia sailed 5 landing ships into Black Sea to support the invasion, including Ropucha class Olenegorsky Gornyak (012)

Now Olenegorsky Gornyak has been hit by a USV and is listing to port
#Ukraine
Landing ship
Image
Ref navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
The hit
Read 5 tweets
H I Sutton Profile picture
Jul 28
***BREAKING***

North Korea (DPRK) has shown off a massive new ‘underwater drone’. Several (4?) were paraded through Pyongyang.

It’s a lot like Russia’s Poseidon at first glance

I am on my phone and just seen it, so HOT TAKE caveats apply, but a 🧵

#OSINT New underwater torpedo drone
Firstly, it *is* a lot like Poseidon ()

It’s similar size (likely smaller and shorter) and has a very similar stern arrangement with folding fins and a ‘pump jet’ (or at least shrouded screw)

Poseidon is a nuclear-powered nuclear-armed torpedo: https://t.co/dNPdtEHLE4hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpe…
Image
However it’s not an exact match for Poseidon.

And I very much doubt it’s nuclear powered. That’s just unrealistic given North Korean projects and priorities. Instead I expect electric. So it’s mostly batteries. Image
Read 10 tweets
H I Sutton Profile picture
Jul 19
***THREAD***

After withdrawing from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), #Russia is threatening all ships sailing to #Ukraine controlled ports as legitimate targets. Some ambiguity but threat is clear.

What could Russia actually do though?

Info->

🧵 https://t.co/vXAu8FzVS7hisutton.com/How-Russia-Cou…
Russian submarine
The threat, reported in Ru media:
"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, ships traveling through the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo"

"To ports" may also include "from ports"? Image
Remember that on the first day of the 2022 invasion Ru issued a prohibition on navigation in the NW Black Sea. Defined area down to the parallel 45-21 N, and from 0400 hr Feb 24 2022.

Several 3rd-country ships were subsequently attacked, attributed to Ru

Effective blockade Image
Read 18 tweets
H I Sutton Profile picture
Jul 18
***UPDATE***
Here ->

Thread 1/6

The latest #Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) is a modified commercial jet ski. Previously Ukraine used bespoke hulls with jet ski propulsion.

Let's unpack it.
#OSINT https://t.co/2NUtAGyiCxhisutton.com/Ukraine-Mariti…
Ukraine USV maritime drones
2/6
 The jet ski was apparently involved in the July 16 Sevastopol raid, not the July 18 Kerch Bridge attack. However, it *may* be the same type as in Kerch - see later.

Sorry no better image - welcome to OSINT Image
3/6
 Based on the available video (see ) the jet ski is a Kawasaki STX. I am about 80% confident, but difficult to pin down the exact model or year in that imagery.

Note that the seat, handlebars and some casings appear to have been removed https://t.co/uszwJEVX71
Image
Read 6 tweets
H I Sutton Profile picture
Jun 11
***UPDATE***
Here -> hisutton.com/Implied-Threat…

1/4
 Spy Ship Attacked: Russia Implies Ukrainian/NATO Threat To TurkStream Gas Pipeline

This may indicate Russia trying to frame Ukraine for an as-yet unrealized attack on the pipeline TurkStream gas pipeline
2/3
 Russian gov/media claim that the Black Sea Fleet Vishnya class Intelligence Ship Priazovye, was attacked by maritime drones

This is interesting. But the claimed reason that she was there may be more significant....

2/4 drones match Ukrainian types 4 Ukrainian maritime drone (USV)
3/4
 The TurkStream pipeline is controversial because, like Nord Stream, it is seen as a way Russia can pipe gas to Europe without going via Ukraine. It also offers Turkey the potential to 'whitewash' Russian gas to obscure its origin. Image
Read 4 tweets
H I Sutton Profile picture
May 27
***UPDATE***

The recent #Ukrainian attack on the #Russian spy ship Ivan Khurs in the Black Sea has lessons in explosive boat concept. But probably not what you think!

Thread 1/10

#OSINT
2.
 At face value the attack was unsuccessful. Of the 3 reported ‘maritime drones’ (USVs), at least one was destroyed, and the ship appears undamaged (or minimally damaged)

Many people are disappointed

So it looks like these boats “don’t work”

But that’s not my thought Ukrainian USV destroyed by ...
3.
 But at least one got close enough to hit the ship. Ukraine’s USVs have done that before, with a kalibr cruise missile carrying frigate, and a minesweeper

Common theme is, no real damage Image
Read 10 tweets

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