Thread by @HannaNotte

#Russia-#Hamas
#HamasAttackOnIsrael

What do we know?
What can we say about #Russia's role and cost-benefit assessment regarding this situation?

A 🧵

1) #Russia-#Hamas relations are active and go way back. Moscow only recently hosted a Hamas delegation

Russia's also been active in intra-Palestinian mediation, trying to carve out a niche for itself on the peace process. The Russian Academy of Sciences has played a role here /1

2) #Russia-#Iran relations have been expanding and changing qualitatively, with significant implications for:

-Iran enjoying a near-nuclear status, as I argued here:
-both countries' military capabilities, as I show here: /2warontherocks.com/2022/11/dont-e…
foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…

3) Generally speaking, a modicum of instability in the Middle East and new crises suit #Russia, as they deflect Western attention/resources/bandwidth away from NATO's eastern flank and #Ukraine.

Iran's proxies causing havoc is not against Russian interest. /3

4) That said, I have not seen evidence of direct #Russian backing for #Hamas and this attack - planning, weapons, execution.

And to be clear: There was no need for Russian assistance. The Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis is *highly* capable. Let's not delude ourselves. /4

5) There are also several reasons why #Russia would be cautious about backing such a vile attack on Israel directly:

a) Chiefly, Moscow still hopes to keep Israel cautious on the #Ukraine war, ie Israel not giving lethal weapons to Kyiv;
b) Russia's relations with Israel.../5

..have been more rocky recently (esp. under Bennett & Lapid), but remain extensive: intel sharing, huge Russian diaspora in Israel (which predates the Ukraine war), extensive trade, deconfliction in Syria. Bibi and Putin have personal chemistry. /6

c) While Russia welcomes instability, I'm not sure it would be happy about an Iran-Israel war that would engulf #Lebanon - and probably #Syria.

Russia has naval/air bases in Syria that allow it to project power into the Eastern Med/MENA.
It wants quiet & for the US to leave /7

If there was a bigger war in the region, #Russia would not have the capacity and bandwidth to deal with it.

And Moscow doesn't need that kind of war - low-level instability suits its needs just fine. /8

One final thought: Notwithstanding its growing ties with Iran, its forging of an "axis of the sanctioned", Russia has continued to value its ties with #Israel and the Arab states.

I don't think #Russia wants to go "all in" with Iran. /9

However, the U.S. response to whatever will unfold in Israel in coming weeks - coming down hard on the side of Israel - *may* cause an even further Russian drift into Iran's orbit, given the geopolitical dimension here.

And that could have significant implications. /10