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Luke Harding Profile picture
@lukeharding1968
Nov 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A grim moment for #Kyiv. A second Trump presidency means the probable end of US military assistance to Ukraine. The country's troops are already outgunned on the battlefield, with Russia advancing at the fastest rate since 2022. East - most of Donetsk oblast - may be lost in 2025
Some Ukrainians think Trump may bring resolution to Putin's bloody war. But it's clear any 'deal' imposed by US will be unacceptable to Kyiv, and result in loss of territory, and capitulation. Ukraine will carry on fighting. The question is whether Europe can or will step up ..
The Kremlin will be celebrating Trump's victory, as another era of chaos and US weakness. Putin's goals in Ukraine are as maximalist as ever: to seize as much territory as possible. And to wipe out the country's statehood, identity, culture. A fascist project, with US connivance
If there are Trump-brokered "negotiations" Putin will likely demand complete control of four Ukrainian provinces, including cities Russia doesn't occupy such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Plus a buffer zone, "reparations" for the Donbas, and an end to Ukraine's bid to join Nato
Russian demands are unacceptable to @ZelenskyyUa and to a war weary nation, under daily bombardment and fighting for its existence. Few people here in Kyiv believe Putin would honour a Trump White House "deal". Rather, he would use any pause in the fighting to rearm and regroup
@ZelenskyyUa Zelenskyy has made overtures to Trump and met him a month ago in NYC. Ukrainian officials say they will work constructively with the US president and stress their bipartisan approach. Still, this is a bleak day for Ukraine, its brave people and for supporters around the world
Here's our @guardian piece on the grim mood in Kyiv, following Donald Trump's victory: "Ukraine was plunged into gloom and uncertainty amid expectations Trump is likely to end US military assistance in 2025 and will pressure Kyiv to give territory to Russia". By me & @dansabbagh

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More from @lukeharding1968

Luke Harding Profile picture
Feb 16
Depressing, grim and unsurprising news: the Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny has died in prison. Breaking news, more soon theguardian.com/world/2024/feb…
Russia's prison service says "the causes of his death are not clear". In fact it's blindingly obvious the regime killed him - either by murder or deliberate neglect - and that no such decision could be made without Vladimir Putin's personal authorisation
What strikes me about Navalny's murder is its timing. Trump has said he won't defend Nato allies, Republicans in Congress have blocked vital aid to Ukraine, and the US looks divided & weak. Putin thinks he is winning: on the battlefield and in his broader war with the west
Read 7 tweets
Luke Harding Profile picture
Dec 30, 2023
Here's Matthew Elliott - chief executive of Vote Leave, given a peerage today by Liz Truss - in Moscow, on a trip organised in 2012 by a Russian spy. Elliott was a leading figure in the Conservative Friends of Russia, and is pictured right. @RhonddaBryant theguardian.com/politics/2012/…
The UK- based Russian spy who organised Elliott's Moscow trip was Sergei Nalobin. The goal was to improve relations with the Conservative party after the murder of Alexander Litvinenko & to identify a new generation of Eurosceptic "influencers" who might be useful to the Kremlin
Elliott says his trip to Moscow was "a mistake" and he had no further contact with Russians. But it's worth remembering that Brexit was a Kremlin foreign policy objective - supported by an extensive social media campaign in 2015-2016 and other covert measures
Read 5 tweets
Luke Harding Profile picture
Mar 30, 2023
Boom! Leaked documents from #Moscow shed light on Vladimir Putin's shadowy cyber-warfare capabilities: hacking, disinformation, propaganda. Here's our story on the #VulkanFiles, supplied by a whistleblower unhappy at Ukraine war and who is now a "ghost" theguardian.com/technology/202…
Our story follows a months-long investigation into Vulkan, a cyber-security firm in Moscow. Its clients include the #FSB, Putin's old spy agency; the Russian military and the #GRU intelligence agency; and the SVR, the foreign intelligence outfit, emails and multiple docs show
The #VulkanFiles are published today by international media partners and newspapers including @paper_trail_m @derspiegel @SZ @washingtonpost @ZDFfrontal @derStandardat @tagesanzeiger
@lemondefr @istories_media @DRNyheder
Read 10 tweets
Luke Harding Profile picture
Aug 16, 2022
I spent a week travelling along #Ukraine's southern frontline, from Odesa and Mykolaiv to Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol. Here's my report on #Kyiv's quest to take back the city of Kherson and other occupied territories lost to #Russia. Video: @christophcherry theguardian.com/world/2022/aug…
Ukraine has used Himars systems to clinical effect. It has disabled crossing points over the Dnipro including Kherson's Antonivsky bridge, and has left Russian troops on the river's right-bank dangerously exposed. In contrast to the east, these southern positions look vulnerable
But my sense is a large-scale Ukrainian counter-offensive is unlikely in the immediate future. Partly because Kyiv doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of Russia's Soviet-style campaign in February and March, when over-long tank and technical columns tried and failed to take #Kyiv
Read 9 tweets
Luke Harding Profile picture
Apr 13, 2022
A symbol of imperial hubris. Destroyed Russian armoured vehicle next to the exclusion zone in Chornobyl. The white letters read: "Glory to Ukraine". Around 1000 #Russian servicemen lived in the nuclear power plant for over a month, digging trenches, tank shelters and a kitchen... Image
I spoke today to the head of state agency which manages the zone. He said the Russian soldiers who breathed in radioactive dust will feel the consequences, "some in months, some in years". "This is the first time the world has seen tanks at a nuclear power plant," he said
Thousands of military vehicles trundled through the nuclear zone between Feb 24 and March 31, when #Russia retreated. Radiation levels are presently unknown because Putin's soldiers stole the plant's computer servers, as well as tables, microwaves and Chornobyl staff uniforms
Read 5 tweets
Luke Harding Profile picture
Mar 9, 2022
Deputy mayor of #Mariupol Sergiy Orlov has just been speaking. Says city under "continuous Russian shelling", genocide taking place, 1170 people killed, 47 buried today in a mass grave. No water, heat, power, gas, with residents drinking snow and burning firewood. "It's medieval"
Orlov: "Putin is intent on having Ukraine without Ukrainians. It's pure genocide. The attack being waged by Russia isn't simply treacherous. It's a war crime. They are attacking us with aviation, shells, multiple rocket launchers."
Orlov says #Russian army has shelled evacuation corridor, mined the road and put in a check point. 200K people desperate to leave, only 2-3K able to get out daily on 21 municipal buses. The others destroyed. Russians deliberately shelling assembly points for those trying to exit
Read 7 tweets

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