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Noam Raydan Profile picture
@NoamRaydan
Jun 21 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1/3 Earlier this week I wrote: the US and its partners should keep a close eye on risks to shipping in the coming days and weeks, not only in the Persian Gulf, but also in the Red Sea and other waterways within the Houthis’ reach. #Shipping #Houthis #oott
2/3 The Houthis remain in control of transit through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and may decide to renew hostilities there in support of Iran. Transit remains low as of May compared to 2023 despite the ceasefire. Risks remain high and may worsen in a prolonged war.
3/3 Bab al-Mandeb strait remain a high risk area for shipping. Now there are concerns about 2nd key chokepoint: Hormuz - but risks here remain very low as Iran oil exports remain strong compared to May- @Kpler data. Threats to Hormuz will be very high when Iran cannot export. Image

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More from @NoamRaydan

Noam Raydan Profile picture
Jun 23, 2024
Energy Thread Focusing on Lebanon & Israel

1/6 #Hezbollah released a video showing some Israeli sites, including oil storage tanks at different locations. Below are some notes:

#Israel #Lebanon #OOTT #EnergyImage
2/6 On Israel's oil storage tanks ( these can be seen in the Hezbollah video): it is read as a threat from the group to hit Israeli energy infrastructure. Around the same time today (June 22), Yemen's #Houthis claimed they had hit vessels at the Haifa port (these claims are not new and they've been going on for some time) along with armed groups in Iraq. These are part of the propaganda machine/psychological warfare (whatever term you use) in this war. The Hezbollah video ends with the words of Hezbollah's leader: "Whoever thinks of war against us will regret it." 

In addition to the ongoing attacks from both sides, the war of words between Hezbollah and Israel has now escalated to more alarming levels, amid fears in the region of a wider war.
3/6 Israel has three ports through which it imports crude oil: Ashkelon, Haifa, and Ashdod. In Nov and Dec last year, and amid the Gaza war, crude oil imports via Ashkelon ( which is close to Gaza) dropped amid a brief closure. But imports later picked up.
Read 6 tweets
Noam Raydan Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022
#Iraq's oil ministry announced today the "start of trial operations" at the 140,000 bpd Karbala refinery- considered part of Iraq's refinery upgrade plans to address product imbalance & improve product yields. (Photo circulated by the oil ministry) #OOTT . More below: Image
2) Iraq will most likely continue to remain a net importer of gasoline and gasoil through 2030, some have noted.
3) Other refineries have undergone some upgrades. For example, in 2021, the oil ministry announced the addition of an isomerization unit and a reforming unit at the old Daura refinery with a capacity of 10,000 bpd to convert naphtha to higher-value gasoline blendstock.
Read 4 tweets
Noam Raydan Profile picture
Sep 20, 2022
Thread on #Iran-#Lebanon energy talks through history, and recent reports about Iranian fuel oil "donation" to Lebanon for power plants (which require different oil products of different specs), with a focus on what Beirut-based Al Akhbar newspaper said earlier today: Image
1)Lebanese-Iranian energy talks date back to at least 2000. That year, Tehran offered to upgrade Lebanon's power plants&refineries amid talks of "resuming" crude oil flows from Iraq's Kirkuk to the Med. This did not happen, and talks remained talks.
2)In October 2010, #Iran offered to assist Lebanon in addressing chronic electricity shortages,& oil & gas exploration when former energy minister Gebran Bassil went to Tehran on an official visit. Later that month, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Beirut.
Read 19 tweets
Noam Raydan Profile picture
Aug 21, 2021
#Lebanon: My new work for @amwajmedia on the current disorder in Lebanon’s energy sector: what triggered it, immediate solution to allow discharge of more fuel ships- ready to be offloaded- &Hezbollah’s narrative of need for Iranian oil in light of this: bit.ly/3mgifTI
I focus 1) on the abdication of a govt body that has long presented itself as a "market regulator", & the distribution+ sales problems compounded by the state's short-sighted fiscal policies, causing delays in unloading oil tankers that have continuously called on #Lebanon.
2)Given the popular anger with the energy crisis, Hezbollah has found a way to create a narrative for its support base that justifies the need for Iran’s oil. It has also succeeded in presenting itself as a party with solutions- regardless of their impact on the national level.
Read 5 tweets
Noam Raydan Profile picture
Jun 26, 2021
#Lebanon: Guess it’s time for a thread on Lebanon’s energy imports sector due to some misinformation.
1)Oil tankers in general have never stopped calling on Lebanon. Tankers laden with fuel oil ( for power generation), gasoil/diesel, gasoline, and LPG (cooking gas). Lebanon is not under "siege" as some continue to say without offering solid data.
2)The problem is the financial crisis that has made it difficult to pay for oil imports whether those for power generation ( EDL) for example or the private sector (gasoline). But some tankers are waiting more than others. Some are offloading in a short period.
Read 15 tweets
Noam Raydan Profile picture
Oct 20, 2019
On Lebanon's civil society: I have noticed that a number of observers are trying to understand the #LebanonProtests. The protests are not magic.They’re product of years of work:The work of Lebanon's civil society that needs to be acknowledged. #لبنان_يثور #لبنان__ينتفض #Beirut
1)Many remember the protests in 2015 that were covered by international media- now since that year, activists managed to achieve successes in some areas for first time, challenging the existing political system they're fighting. I will focus on elections in 2017/18:
2) In 2017, civil society won in the Beirut Order of Engineers polls. Jad Tabet, backed by Beirut Madinati coalition was able to beat a candidate supported by traditional parties. That was a major victory for civil society. Read here: dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-N…
Read 8 tweets

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