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Louis Curran Profile picture
Louis Curran
@CurrencyWar1
Project Phoenix Anglo Irish European Transatlantacist, Looking At The World Through A Beijing Lens
Louis Curran Profile picture 1 subscribed
Feb 10, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
WEAK DOLLAR KEY
last Friday, China launched DCEP, ECB turned hawkish. Add rocketing US rates driven by huge NDP, AHE & CPI, Yet #Dollar down*. We know a weaker dollar is supportive 'risk'. IMV its driven by #PBOC selling dollars. China's #CFETS basket at 2 Year highs correlates with $DXY strength. DCEP is now up & running and the $RMB strength necessary to its survival & credibility is no longer necessary, indeed its harmful. A strong $RMB was essential to avoid the loss of credibility endured by the only other reserve currency launched in the last 100
Dec 4, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
🛑.@NewYorkFed / @BIS_org Collaboration Huge
China is already out in front with its CBDC. Socialising its FinTech and layering onto DCEP is what I call an App Store Moment positively Intertwining The Fortunes Of China's Tech Sector and its new Digital Currency in one. @SecYellen and @federalreserve Powell and many others didn't really care about a digital dollar 12 months ago, but policy stance has changed as has approach to #crypto broadly. @GaryGensler appeared hostile initially and then did a volte face. In recent days China has switched attention
Dec 1, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
China Will Disrupt Crypto (2) $ETH Killer
-> PBOC proposes to monitor metaverse and NFTs cointelegraph.com/news/china-s-c…

Crypto underestimates the vision of China's Digital Currency Ambition.
Its about inserting a digital RMB into the global reserve currency complex while upending Dollar hegemony and supreamacy. The vision will allow China open its Capital A/c and fund the massive deficits accrued by semi state enterprises. I forsee the Yuan as a stable coin, leading to a collapse in FX volatility and a genuine use case for RMB mass adoption via its
Sep 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
VOLTE FACE
18 months ago, not one member of FED gave a damn about the digital Dollar.
Why the change of heart. China launches it CBDC soon and despite the chaos im confident it will launch and fly well. 8% REER apprecaition since covid is a clear statment of intent by Chinese. China began its DCEP project after 1.0 trio outflows from 2014/2017 with a large proportion of those outflows via stablecoins and #BTC. China's ambition is to upend Dollar hegemony, the evergrande bankruptcy is a perfect case in point with international capital markets concerned
Sep 23, 2021 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
Strength=Credibility
@jnordvig shows $CNY 8% TW rise since Covid confounding expectations. Why? $RMB Reserve FX status requires $CNY trades strong during domestic crises [Covid, Trade & Evergrande] as Strength = Credibility with #DCEP launch imminent, thus why #BTC strength will be resisted. As Jens highlights, China's FX reserves collapsed in 2015/16/17, falling 1.0 Trio USD. PBOC MU, the head of the digital lab told us at HK blockchain week in 2019 that the popularity of #bitcoin during this period lead the PBOC to fear for sovereignty of the Yuan. So
Oct 6, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Irreconsilable
US twin deficit's & Fed policy point to continued dollar weakness.
Fed adopted new inflation regime targeting 2.5% AIT.
China, tied No1 holder of $DXY reserves intend's to offer its DCEP/CBDC as a dollar alternative leading CB's to diversify away from $USD Eurozone is caught in a pincer movement where HICP is collapsing and Project Digital and EU 750 Bio bond will if they are to be successful require tolerance of validating inflows. Increasing QE further risks zombification of EZ banks which are already in trouble.
Europe needs
Jul 8, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
China Outflanked Trump. The Game Is Lost.
Trump is a flailing desperate drunk, swinging for China on Trade & Covid. WH went ''all-in'' on China trade purchases ( wont happen ), meanwhile Covid unwind has been a disaster ( x2 dip ?) leaving Trump 2020 chances almost negligible. ImageImage Contrast with China, now on road to recovery with monetary stimulus negligible vs FED which might do more (Clarida) & likely congress slow on more fiscal. Exploding dificits & easy Fed will weigh on dollar. Meanwhile China declared a war of its own, building a tech revolution & ImageImage
Apr 22, 2020 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Evidence China Manipulates S+P
I've argued China bought dips 17 X from March Asian lows. bit.ly/2VQ4trY Price action today same MO-> rally on little news, coincidentally rallies also. @WSJ concludes same. Asia Buys While U Sleep on.wsj.com/2KnmM2i ImageImageImageImage Why China Buys US Stocks
Aug 2015 Yuan Deval established a direct causal effect between weaker Yuan and weaker US stocks. Thru my career market participants would say that when when rolls over, correlations converge to 1 likely due to globalisation inter-connectivity. Thus Image