I've been thinking about the US Strategic Bitcoin/Crypto Reserve and there are two possible outcomes:

1⃣ The reserve is $BTC and none of the mentioned altcoins actually make it in
2⃣ We're going to accelerate into degeneracy unlike anything seen before

Long thread time. 🧵👇 First, we should address the big question. Why is Samson saying that none of the alts Trump listed will make it in? Didn't the President just say XRP, SOL, ADA, and ETH will be included?

Well, can Trump actually just dictate what things going into a reserve? I don't think so. There will need to be a report/proposal from the working group and then Congress will need to pass legislation.

So then why did Trump say he would "direct the working group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve" that specifically includes those alts?

Well, why do politicians say anything? (no offense to the politicians we talk to regularly 😋)

I'm pretty sure Trump knows he can't actually ensure those things are included, but if you read the words carefully, he can of course direct the work group to do something - it doesn't mean it will happen.

Executive Order 6102 didn’t “confiscate” gold in the same way “no one was forced to get the mRNA shot.”

A government doesn’t need to physically confiscate your #Bitcoin. It can just lock custodial BTC into approved custodians forever, aka “Institutional Bitcoin.” And then it can drive the price of that Bitcoin lower by decreasing its utility.

While a government that isn’t on a Bitcoin Standard technically shouldn’t have incentive to confiscate BTC (because it can freely print money), it actually does still have an incentive to degrade and attack Bitcoin. The reason is because a harder and superior money makes whatever they print less valuable, which means they need to print more and at a faster rate.

Plan accordingly. Expect 6102.
I previously talked about #Bitcoin splitting here:

https://twitter.com/excellion/status/1722083780519989547

This is a really good post from @benthecarman about Lightning. It's good to talk openly about the problems with LN, but it's not just channel liquidity. For new users, Lightning is barely usable.

Ultimately, Lightning may just become an interop gateway.

stacker.news/items/379225 The main problem with Lightning is that it was designed to interact with the mainchain under the assumption that fees would be "cheap" ish (potentially with bigger blocks down the road). But it breaks down when fees are not cheap, as Ben points out here:

"Fundamentally, all current lightning channels could become entirely useless if on-chain fees went high enough because a single payment would require too many reserves."

And the problem is that fees are not going to get cheaper. Bitcoin tx fees are only going to get more expansive both in BTC and dollar terms. Imagine fees at $1M #Bitcoin.

The #Bitcoin ETF is the MEMO.

Most people don’t understand how significant the ETFs are in terms of marketing and branding. They will bring a flood of capital, but equally important is the message or memo that’s being sent out. 🧵👇

Take note that there are 12 ETFs being filed by asset managers.

First, they are in it for $, not necessarily because they believe in #Bitcoin (so don’t simp for them). To get $ they need AUM. So everyone wants to be #1. This is a competition.

We’re all familiar with the term military-industrial complex. Now it’s time to popularize the term political-financial complex.

Political-financial complexes around the world are directly responsible for all of the ruin we see today. Only #Bitcoin can fix it. Just as the military-industrial complex will seek endless war, the political-financial complex will seek endless spending. Both lead to human misery in their own way.

JUST IN: Vatican calls on the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to halt interest rate increases in the name of all that is holy. I just made this up but you know Pope Francis is thinking it.

#Ethereum’s problems are caused by constantly optimizing for tokenomics over decentralization, security, and resilience. It looks like the Merge and POS will lead to complete regulatory capture by centralized exchanges & staking platforms, and there’s no way out for them. 🧵👇 So how did they get here? Deciding on a 32 ETH requirement to stake as part of the protocol (in order to lockup supply and maximize tokenomics). That pretty much made POS as centralized as possible, and plus they don’t have the #Bitcoin culture of not your keys, not your coins.

Today is my last day with @Blockstream. It's been a grand adventure working with @adam3us for the last 5 years and together we've accomplished a great deal from sidechains, to mining, to satellites. So what’s next? I plan to focus on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption! 🍊💊🌎 Blockstream will continue to be a critical part of #Bitcoin infrastructure development & Layer 2 scaling tech like @Liquid_BTC & Lightning. I’m grateful to have had a hand in bringing so many products/services to market, and though I’m leaving, I’ll still be a #BlockstreamSpy. 🕵🏻‍♂️

The #UASF was a defining event of #Bitcoin. 2 years later we may forget what the movement looked like early on. It was never a sure thing. Many people were confused & felt powerless in the face of what looked like massive support for a forced protocol change (NYA/#SegWit2x). In fact many thought that #Bitcoin was over as we knew it. How could anyone (or any group) go up against such an overwhelming amount of hashrate and corporate backing? It looked like an impossible battle. But Bitcoin and Bitcoiners exist for impossible battles. #RememberTheUASF

Finished watching the entirety of the Senate Banking Committee hearings today.

@Libra_ is so screwed. Let's ignore the funny parts for now, like "we're really really a non-profit because we'll figure out how to make less money later" or "we want to keep America competitive by setting up shop in Switzerland."

Organizers said no photos of the Hayes vs Roubini debate so I’ll use this stock photo of Nouriel. #ABS2019 @aba_summit @CryptoHayes: I don’t even want to call you professsor.

1/ The reason people are confused about what's going on and can't find the trail is simply because @TheBlueMatt is being dramatic. I wasn't going respond directly because it's so stupid, but it would be worse to not clarify and invite speculation. 🤦‍♂️ #BitcoinDrama

https://twitter.com/BuzzLightyearz_/status/1133385391451590656

2/ By making a massive deal out of blocking me (Matt, you couldn’t just write it, but had to take a screenshot of Twitter UI showing the block - which is literally TEXT in a blue bar), people are wondering if I kicked his dog or worse. Now there’s a CoinDesk article. Geez.

Just for fun I'm going to answer one of the brand new accounts spreading FUD about the #LiquidNetwork. Liquid is an inter-exchange settlement network - that means it's for exchanges, OTCs, traders, market makers etc. L-BTC isn't for putting into cold storage for your descendants.

https://twitter.com/Nemo_hier/status/1050729091907895298

Liquid is designed to solve a problem: moving large amounts of BTC very fast and reliably. On-chain transactions are prone to variance and exchanges typically require more than 1 confirmation, so full settlement can take an hour or more. Full settlement in L-BTC is minutes.