1/ "The Chaos Tunnel": Humanity has entered a real-life version of RuneScape's treacherous dungeon network. Over the next 5-15 yrs, we'll face chaos, creation, & recalibration on a civilizational level. This journey will be exciting & challenging, depending on our preparedness. 2/ As we navigate this tumultuous period, numerous large themes with profound impacts are unfolding. The journey will be difficult for billions of people, but once we emerge from the Chaos Tunnel, we'll enter an abundance paradigm. This signifies a civilizational & HumanOS reset.

Next 10 years in FinTech.

The Fintech tsunami is happening, and there is no way back.

Long thread 🧵👇🏼 1) In 2030, the largest “bank” in the world will not-be-a-bank.🏦 Think- Square, Stripe, Affirm, AntFin, PayPal, etc. Many large asset categories are still untouched by Fintechs, and once that starts to happen, several new ~$100BN - $500BN 💰 companies will be created.

A decade ends. A new decade begins.

Some learnings and insights at the intersection of Life, Health, and Wealth.

#Thread 🧵 👇🏼

1) “Be Water, My Friend.”

2) Success stories start with failure. 3) Consistency creates luck. *Designing life for luck* is Art. Great Success = Some Talent + A Lot Of Luck*. Let the natural order of things emerge. Understand the language of the Universe. Align with it. Self Discipline carries you further than luck.

1/n: In the new decade, the fin-services sector will look beyond the current open banking ‘phase’ and towards a future of fintech enabled marketplaces and complete financial automation, where the traditional banking model is turned on its head and requires a dramatic rethink, 2/n: emphasizing:
1) Experience over Products;
2) Data over Assets;
3) Partnering over the build or buy;
4) Shared access over ownership.

Technology is reshaping the operating-model of financial institutions fundamentally. Some thoughts:

1/ Banking & credit are the lifeblood of capitalism, and Credit and Debt play a big role in driving demand and economic growth. 2/ The line between deposits and lending is becoming blurred as cash-flow is delivered “as a service”. Non-traditional data makes it possible to create new products and serve new customer categories and markets.

Some learnings at the intersection of banking, credit, & tech.

1) Banking & credit are the lifeblood of capitalism.

2) The most conservative lender is only one severe credit cycle away from failure.

3) Banks fail, Sovereigns default. Hundreds of banks fail every 10+ years. 4) Be wary of banks that obsess overgrowth. Growth at an exceptional rate is a red flag in banking.

5) Government (Fiat) money ≠ Sound money.

6) Human civilization flourishes in times and places where sound money is widely adopted.

7) Bitcoin is a monetary system.

I've been studying China 🇨🇳 for almost a decade now.
Fascinated by its ancient history, cultural transformation, hi-tech prowess, neo-capitalism, wealth creation, debt crisis, & global domination.

Here're some good documentaries👇🏼that explain China's past, present, and future 1) New Money: The Greatest Wealth Creation Event in History (2019)


2) The People's Republic of The Future


3) Too Big For China | Startups - Full Documentary 2018

1/n: “Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty.”

Had 4-5 uninterrupted flight hours this Friday. Re-read #Antifragile by @nntaleb. So here’re some nuggets/quotes/insights from one of my favorite books. #TweetThread 👇🏼 2: Some things seem to improve if they are placed in environments of volatility and unpredictability. ‘Antifragile’ analyzes why this is the case. It suggests that this quality has been vital for the progress of human civilization since ancient times.

1) Re-read ‘the lessons of history’ by Will and Ariel Durant. Some insights/quotes/extracts below

Our knowledge of any past event is incomplete. Most history is guessing and the rest is prejudice. Other sciences tell us how we might behave. History tells us how we have behaved. 2) History is the map of human character. To know how the man will act you must know how man has acted. The laws of biology are the fundamental lessons of history. Human nature has largely been unchanged throughout history – the means change, but the motives remain the same.

Re-read "Deep-Work" last nite. Some learnings/notes/extracts:

1) Ability to master hard things quickly and produce high quality work quickly are two vital characteristics in order to succeed. “If you don’t produce, you won’t thrive—no matter how skilled or talented you are.” 2) Those who can work intelligently with machines, those with access to capital and those who are the best at what they do will vastly outperform others – world becoming more ‘winner take all’

1: The global banking industry is showing signs of renewed health:

i. Deep capital reserves-Tier-1 capital is at decade-high ~12.6%.
ii. High liquidity: Loan-to-deposit ratio fell to~90%, as comp. to 120% in 2007
iii. Innovation: Investment in digital capabilities & partnerships 2: Banks have taken an axe to costs, yet profits remain elusive (falling ROE and P/B Multiples), leading to depressed valuations.

The unstoppable march of ‘Four Horsemen’ —Disintermediation, Commoditization, Unbundling/Rebundling, and Invisibility— continues.

1. NBFCs grew fast, led by retail loans, Bingeing on cheap money. This in turn created a virtuous cycle -as numbers kept growing, so did cheap credit. While ~11,400 NBFCs operate in India, the top 400 —primarily backed by banks and fin. companies— control 90% of the sector’s AUM.

https://twitter.com/Ishaanmittal2/status/1126701986949152770

2. Between FY13-17, nearly $57B flew into Indian bond & liquid funds, resulting in wholesale borrowing rates fall to as low as 6-7% around mid-2017.
Interestingly, the flow of cheap money changed the funding mix of NBFCs over the decade and re-adjustment became more pronounced...

FinTech Wave 1 (08-18) is ending, and Wave 2 (18-> ) is starting. Exciting times ahead. More innovation likely in the next 10 yrs than the previous 80 yrs. I’ve been writing about big shifts, trends, & strategy. So wrapping 2018 with a thread of some selected tweets/posts. (1/n) 2) China is the "FinTech capital of the world.” : - 700M+ mpay users, pymts vol > $15Tn, Alt-lend ~$300bn+. I spent 2016-17 in 🇨🇳 with a ringside view of the size/scale/on-ground realities for the biggest FinTechs. Here’s a long ( 60+ articles) thread:

https://twitter.com/Gaurav1105/status/803613456217804800

1/n: LENDING (business) IS NOT A FEATURE.

And yes, distribution of lending/credit products is a ‘feature’ in some platforms/products.

Lending (CREDIT) is a business with many complex moving parts.

#long #fintech #thread #lending 2/n: In fact “Lending (Credit) is older than money and FinTech.” (medium.com/@gaurav.sharma…)

There’re lot of tweets (within the FinTech community in India) about Whether 'lending is a feature' or not? So, let’s unpack that a bit..