Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Antifragile

Most recents (24)

SILENT EVIDENCE
Discussion w/thoracic surgeon: many established criteria for "normal v." & "risk factors" are based on biased base rates.
#Antifragile argued breast cancer mortality was lower than statistics bec. of asymptomatic pple
One needs risk reclassifications all across.
2) Simply, many norms are established off samples that include more symptomatic pple than the unconditional population.
It means many pple undergo unnecessary surgery (with risks) because of flawed norms.
3) One prime example is imaging leading to back surgery: for a long time the field didn't account for the fact that most asymptomatic cohorts have similar problems on imaging: "foraminal narrowing" or other crap. See #Antifragile
Read 3 tweets
A THREAD (1/9) about the evolution of my #CRYPTO #portfolio and the reasoning behind it.

I started investing into Crypto markets in Oct. 2017. I wasn't sure about any project so I started with equal amounts of $BTC $ETH $LTC. The amounts in total was 1% of my investment capital.
(2/9)

The purpose of this small allocation was to have "skin in the game". I make better decisions when I have real money at stake. So, with prices fluctuating I decided to research projects quickly to find my optimal portfolio. Here is what I found:
(3/9)

$BTC: 1st mover, store of value, most liquidity, proof of work converting value of energy into monetary value.

$ETH: 1st mover for providing decentralized smart contracts. Value of providing platform for dapps is reflected in its monetary value.

$LTC: Silver to $BTC
Read 9 tweets
Thanks for the invitation @Ned_Arick to talk of #thestateofhealthcare

We have clear #evidence of a #system that has failed as has been pointed out by leading experts like @EricTopol

Respect the work on systems done by @MartyMakary @PatrickConwayMD @donberwick
#MedTwitter
Am at @MITSloan doing @MITSloanFellows to learn from experts like @zeynepton @lpbreva @EshipMIT to solve problems through #innovation.

When the biggest #healthcare crisis in a century comes, why couldn’t we be more #antifragile? Why were lives & jobs lost? #MedTwitter

Not ok
In past, folks like those who authored, edited, approved #Medbikini studies defined #professionalism, labeled docs with MBAs as “sellouts” - but #business of #healthcare fails to deliver needed care for results or #quality #MedTwitter #COVID19 #pandemic
nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/…
Read 3 tweets
It's out! How to Manage your Engineering Team Under Pressure - Lessons on Antifragility By Adam Wolff @dmwlff From Robinhood @RobinhoodApp and Facebook
Listen or read: bit.ly/3g2stko
Hosted by @FancyKarolina, powered by @codingsans
#engineeringmanagement #Antifragile
1. Preserve optionality:
Not committing to a single course of action is valuable. Incrementality is a great way to make it work in practice. You set a direction, and set up checkpoints where you can stop, and redirect yourself.
2. Skin in the game:
If your employees can succeed without helping the business, that makes the organization fragile. You need to give them the proper responsibility and proportionate accountability to make them thrive.
Read 5 tweets
Clear directions from venture capitalists on fund raising
1. Acknowledge the new reality that revenues are tending towards zero. Prior valuations and also cost structures were based on revenue projections. Now, costs need to be reimagined from base levels (1/n)
Investors are more than happy to support founders. No investor is saying NO to funds. However, such requests need to be practical and balance obligations. Every founder has to be rational and bring costs down. (2/n)
Founders need to be practical at this time. Valuations were based on GMV, however, now is the time to Be PRACTICAL and accept lower valuations. This also means that a company hoping for a Series D valuation might have to settle for Series C valuation. (3/n)
Read 47 tweets
The #Covid_19 crisis is an excellent example of how stress can make systems #Antifragile because it offers us a opportunity to see the weaknesses extant in global travel and supply chains and to develop policies and procedures for dealing with pandemic control and treatment. 1/6
I'm not one for Panglossian interpretations. I do assert, however, that we have a valuable opportunity and, therefore, a real duty to learn and to make definite changes in order that we are better prepared to handle the next--inevitable--pandemic. 2 /6
Despite COVID-19's viciousness it is relatively benign when compared to many alternatives. What if the next challenge is as infectious as a flu but has the rate of morbidity of a hemorrhagic fever? We must change. What we must not do is create a massive Federal program. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
The loss of GDP from the virus is not a "surprise" nor a "one off" event. Past GDP gains from globalization produced "interlocking fragility" ( #TheBlackSwan), with fake growth/profits & #pseudoefficiency

Globalization produce small gains w/delayed costs. It is what it is.
2) It does not mean "avoid globalization". It is that one needs to understand scaling a little better before making claims of "benefits".
Mild globalization is v. different from what we have today.
3) Comments on Ricardo in #Antifragile. Ricardo was right, but not ignorant economists/former economists like @paulkrugman who think this can be executed by bureaucrats rather than organically.
Read 4 tweets
The #CoronaVirus or #Covid19 is a classic #BlackSwan event.

No one could see it coming. (Ok @BillGates did highlight risk of a pandemic - but realistically not many planned for this)

...
Such a chaotic event is catastrophic for those who are #Fragile,
A downturn for #Robust
Good for #Antifragile

(Channelling my inner NNT)
What is fragility?

As per @nntaleb checklist

- too much concentration of power (can’t talk back to authority with honest feedback)
- one trick pony (export one commodity)
- too much leverage (financial or over optimised supply chain)
- experience of previous crisis
Read 24 tweets
FOREST FIRES IN AUSTRALIA: Caused by irresponsible bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability.

#Antifragile has sections on forest fires & ancestral heuristics (s.a. cultural burning) that "make no sense" to ignorant nudgeboys Sunstein & Thaler & scientistic bureaucrats.
@black_swan_man Connection to localism: small fires reduce connectivity.
Read 4 tweets
Recall that the more information you get, the more disproportionately higher the ratio of noise to signal. Say, a little bit of information, 50% noise; a lot, 99.9% noise.

Likewise, in any field, the higher the number of academic publications the higher the ratio of garbage.
The mechanism in #Antifragile: spurious correlations (and "results") are convex to number of variables.
In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise.
Read 4 tweets
"emergence happens as a consequence of the system is in criticality" ~ 9:13

now, what is the relation between #criticality and #antifragility? is criticality a consequence of the system being #Antifragile?

researchgate.net/publication/33…
or criticality is the underlying mechanism of antifragility?
Read 7 tweets
My personal generalized thoughts and conclusions from #RWRI 12 @nntaleb

-Statistics is about the elimination of noise
-Decision making gets easier in uncertain conditions
-Skin in the game is a filtering mechanism
-Group behavior is not expressed by individual preferences
-Nature is scale invariant
-You create tail events simply by regulating the process - it’s an unnatural constraint
-It’s misconstrued that lowering variability actually lowers risk
-McDonalds exists as an insurance policy
-Everything non-linear is necessarily convex/concave
-Don’t theorize about what people want, just act on what they do
-Have optionality on the convexity of random events
-PTSD vs Post traumatic stress growth. One is talked about because it makes $$$
-Floor your losses
-Zero intelligence trading works when you have convexity bias
Read 13 tweets
Finally managed to imitate the Format used in Scholastic, Syriac, and Talmudic Medieval scholarship.
More ornate
Incidentally the "Tufte style" is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile
Read 9 tweets
1/n: “Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty.”

Had 4-5 uninterrupted flight hours this Friday. Re-read #Antifragile by @nntaleb. So here’re some nuggets/quotes/insights from one of my favorite books. #TweetThread 👇🏼
2: Some things seem to improve if they are placed in environments of volatility and unpredictability. ‘Antifragile’ analyzes why this is the case. It suggests that this quality has been vital for the progress of human civilization since ancient times.
3: Taleb describes that something is antifragile when it gets better with chaos, disorder, and time whereas anything fragile hates volatility.

Nature is the ultimate example of something antifragile as it can adapt and gets stronger with difficult times.
Read 48 tweets
So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test.
He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts.

Psychology is astrology.
In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional.
Both @primalpoly and his friend don't get that you don't know your own IQ with 34% uncertainty. Plus other stuff.
Read 10 tweets
Awesome panel called “#bitcoin Without Internet” at #MCC2019–covering satellites, #meshnetworks & #hamradio & ways to handle last-mile connectivity issues. #antifragile @adam3us @nvk @remyers_ @eiaine @goTenna @Blockstream @Coinkite Image
“It doesn’t really matter what kind of radio you use. They all run at lightspeed.” —@nvk
“The types of use for these different communication technologies are going to be different in different parts of the world.” —@remyers_
Read 4 tweets
In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19
My lectshur will be on localism and convexity.
My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality.

medium.com/incerto/inequa…
Adriatic squid ink (risotto)
Read 8 tweets
"IQ" THREAD

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
HYPERTENSION
In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly "sick" (hypertensive) as
1) these live long
2) >100 more midly "sick" ppl than very sick, so more profitable to "cure" the healthy
Pharma reclassifies the "sick" to get clients.
But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear!
2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill).
Read 4 tweets
TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following:

1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media,

or

2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected.
And the smear with "death camp" narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas.

The best thing The NewYorker did to Bannon is disinvite him. Much better than debating him as he can't lose that debate.

Information is #Antifragile.
Read 5 tweets
The real difference in politics isn't the "right" vs "left" gradation but rather "Greek" vs "Roman".

+ Greek = puts theory above practice
+ Roman= puts practice above theory

Be Roman. Now.
BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language.
Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn't: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times ...causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.

#Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history.
Read 6 tweets
Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners.
For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less "irrational") than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails).

Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an "airport book"
About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn't get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching "entrepreneurship" while being on a salary. Academics don't notice these things.
Read 4 tweets
Some notes on @nntaleb's #Antifragile: Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility,randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.. there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile.
This is pretty much a sense of complexity
of much interesting is that aging and chronical diseases (as diabetes) lower your complexity level in physiological time series such as heart rate (working paper)
Read 59 tweets
Attention: Lebanese: Lebanon is much greener today than it was earlier.

I looked at pictures of 1900 vs 2018. This is the Casino in 1961 vs 2018.

More house, more complaints, more trees.
Another striking picture: Amioun 1899 vs 2018. Don't have exactly the same angle but it is the same village (in 2nd picture, to the left).

Note that the church with the dome was destroyed in an earthquake in 1918; rebuilt in a different shape.
EHDEN, in the North: same valley 1836 and my picture 2016. Granted prints might be ignoring greenery.
Read 5 tweets

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