Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Antifragile

Most recents (14)

1/n: “Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty.”

Had 4-5 uninterrupted flight hours this Friday. Re-read #Antifragile by @nntaleb. So here’re some nuggets/quotes/insights from one of my favorite books. #TweetThread 👇🏼
2: Some things seem to improve if they are placed in environments of volatility and unpredictability. ‘Antifragile’ analyzes why this is the case. It suggests that this quality has been vital for the progress of human civilization since ancient times.
3: Taleb describes that something is antifragile when it gets better with chaos, disorder, and time whereas anything fragile hates volatility.

Nature is the ultimate example of something antifragile as it can adapt and gets stronger with difficult times.
Read 48 tweets
So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test.
He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts.

Psychology is astrology.
In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional.
Both @primalpoly and his friend don't get that you don't know your own IQ with 34% uncertainty. Plus other stuff.
Read 10 tweets
In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19
My lectshur will be on localism and convexity.
My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality.…
Adriatic squid ink (risotto)
Read 8 tweets

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly "sick" (hypertensive) as
1) these live long
2) >100 more midly "sick" ppl than very sick, so more profitable to "cure" the healthy
Pharma reclassifies the "sick" to get clients.
But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear!
2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill).
Read 4 tweets
TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following:

1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media,


2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected.
And the smear with "death camp" narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas.

The best thing The NewYorker did to Bannon is disinvite him. Much better than debating him as he can't lose that debate.

Information is #Antifragile.
Read 5 tweets
The real difference in politics isn't the "right" vs "left" gradation but rather "Greek" vs "Roman".

+ Greek = puts theory above practice
+ Roman= puts practice above theory

Be Roman. Now.
BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language.
Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn't: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times ...causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.

#Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history.
Read 6 tweets
Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners.
For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less "irrational") than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails).

Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an "airport book"
About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn't get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching "entrepreneurship" while being on a salary. Academics don't notice these things.
Read 4 tweets
Some notes on @nntaleb's #Antifragile: Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility,randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.. there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile.
This is pretty much a sense of complexity
of much interesting is that aging and chronical diseases (as diabetes) lower your complexity level in physiological time series such as heart rate (working paper)
Read 59 tweets
Attention: Lebanese: Lebanon is much greener today than it was earlier.

I looked at pictures of 1900 vs 2018. This is the Casino in 1961 vs 2018.

More house, more complaints, more trees.
Another striking picture: Amioun 1899 vs 2018. Don't have exactly the same angle but it is the same village (in 2nd picture, to the left).

Note that the church with the dome was destroyed in an earthquake in 1918; rebuilt in a different shape.
EHDEN, in the North: same valley 1836 and my picture 2016. Granted prints might be ignoring greenery.
Read 5 tweets
Small plug: Medical errors as 3rd leading cause of death comes from this paper in the Journal of patient safety…

I believe it’s their most cited.. (1/n
John James accompanied by a number of illustrious academics sat together in Congress and testified to the veracity of this new evidence.

The number - 440,000 dying from medical errors in hospitals means more than half of folks dying in hospitals are from medical error
When I looked at the paper- It was based on four trials

1 trial was over 1 week.
1 trial didn’t report which harms were preventable
The largest trial -2341 cases reviewed - 588 harms ID’d, 9 were deemed preventable deaths.

So data says - .4%
Read 10 tweets
Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen
1) There has been a traditional separation between:
+ "liberal education" for free men, (liber), who didn't work for a living, &
+"technical education", for those who labor.
2) For instance, mathematics as taught for "liberal" education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid's theorem was never used in building.

Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile)
3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy:

+ Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.)

+ Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing)
Read 11 tweets
1) This is a grrrrreat case study by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath showing OPTIONALITY matters more than skills: You can have >53% chance of winning when odds are against you is you have the option of switching between 2 (strategies, both of which have odds against you).
2) Here is my solution, will generalize showing results across all regimes.

Convexity (optionality) beats skills. Any time.

3) The general principle #Antifragile is that when the payoff is bigger or you have your back to the wall you go for maximum variance (convexity).
When the downside is bigger you go for minimum variance.

Why explains why winning teams mark time and losing teams take risks.
Read 5 tweets
A thread on things I took/learnt from @RayDalio's book "Principles" (~150 things)
1- Line 2 of book - “I’m a ‘dumb shit’ who doesn’t know much relative to what I need to know. Whatever success ive had in life has had more to do with my knowing how to deal with my not knowing anything I know”
2- “The most important thing I learned is an approach to life based on principles that help me find out whats true and what to do about it”
Read 158 tweets

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