Confidence grew Sunday in the #Mitlon track forecast, which climbed from low to moderate, trending higher. It's hard to find global, specialized, or ensemble model track with landfall outside of the Cedar Key to Ft. Myers stretch of Florida's west coast. (GIF via @burgwx) 1/ While there's been a lot of emphasis in recent years on impacts beyond the inner core of hurricanes, this time the actual track of the eye matters a *ton*. West coast of Florida residents near and south of where the eye hits will be impacted by a killer storm surge of 10+ ft. 2/

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 13
Location: 15.3°N 49.3°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph Por las razones delineadas ayer, este #PTC7 debe convertirse en tormenta mucho antes de lo que lo logró Fred. El CNH está siendo sumamente conservador en proyectar una tormentita de 45 a 50 mph para PR/RD, pero les recuerdo que intensidad es lo que somos peores proyectando.

2/

Invest 95L es el próximo sistema de origen africano localizado ya casi a medio camino hacia las Antillas. La probabilidad de desarrollo llega a 70% (CNH). El único factor que inhibe su fortalecimiento son los fuertes vientos del este en altura, pero se espera que eso disminuya
1/ Existe aire sahariano seco al norte de 95L pero los modelos muestran que el núcleo de aire húmedo debe permanecer más intacto que el de pre-Fred.

2/

By now you know that there’s not much risk of a windstorm. Even if Fred somehow revives there’s not enough time for it to be more than a minimal tropical storm by the time it passes near or over South Florida & the Keys. The updated chance for storm-force winds as of 11 (%):

1/ W Palm Beach 11
Ft Lauderdale 13
Miami 10
Homestead 11
Marathon 29
Key West 21
Naples 26
Ft Myers 12
Tampa 22
Orlando 7

2/

Volume increasing (at least on local news) from frustrated residents of South Florida’s flooded neighborhoods. I can refer you to my timeline for previous posts on this matter, but let me summarize again:

(1) no system is designed to absorb 18 inches of rain in a day

#thread 1/ (2) Granted, some flood mitigation is possible. I said mitigation, not elimination. E.g. the C-4 Basin in Miami-Dade put in place after the 2000 No Name Storm. And pumps. These things cost big big bucks. Meaning higher taxes. So people against higher taxes can’t have it both ways

Sunday coffee Eta briefing:

The dry air from the upper level low has arrived, while wind shear and land interaction impact the storm. The storm is, at least for now, weakening. Tellingly, the Hurricane Watch for South Florida has *not* been upgraded to a Warning.

1/ Models, which have now benefited from 2 surveillance missions from the G-IV jet sampling the environment on 3 sides of Eta, have joined the anticipatory Euro which was calling for a hard-left out of Cuba. While that turn has yet to happen, Eta is slowing — a sign of imminent turn

I’ve been answering everyone individually but let’s do a shutters post for all. Shutters are generally required for winds in excess of 105 mph, which are the ones that can lift non-aerodynamic objects like roof tiles and such. Eta is forecast to be a 70 MPH tropical storm

1/ Now, that’s not to say that there isn’t an outside chance that it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and — this is important — *sustain* that intensity through Monday. So, let’s consider a reasonable worst case scenario. Conveniently, @NWSMiami does that for us.

2/

Tropical Storm Warning posted for South Florida and the Keys.

Forecast track for Eta as a robust tropical or subtropical storm nudged northward to the Upper Keys and south Miami-Dade with the latest NHC advisory. The Euro and Japanese models only holdouts showing FL Straits The intensity forecast from NHC has remained unchanged over the last several advisories. It is more aggressive than the model forecasts, which, eyeballing it, average to a ~50 MPH max wind storm. However, given the track adjustment, chances for storm-force winds increased.

2/

Major changes in the last 12 hours: A new center of circulation has formed in the depression, and 45 mile per hour (75 km / hr) winds were detected in what is now classified as Tropical Storm #Laura.

** en español en facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc…

1/ This new vortex location, no less than 70 miles south of where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had estimated it was located, puts the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in play.

2/

Florida and the U.S. both set new records for #COVID cases today. Higher than March, higher than April. The highest it’s been. Yet I have a *select* few followers from South Florida who call me a fear-mongerer for sharing these facts. Let’s review their arguments:

1/ Hospitalizations are down, they insist

(source: @MiamiDadeCounty)

2/

Dumbfounded. Stunned. Astonished. @AngieNBC6 @SteveMacNBC6 and I are on conference readying today’s @nbc6 weathercasts and we’re overwhelmed by the sheer number of crazy heat records falling like flies here. This is July weather in April. First, here are current heat indexes. 90°+ days in 2020 up to this date = new record of 8 (previously 6)

75°+ nights in 2020 up to the date = new record of 17 (previously 16)

Earliest hottest weather of the year record has been set 3 times

Earliest 4 straight nights at 78°+ = new record by over 2 weeks (2017)

2/

I don’t know if it’s being forced to watch the frequency at which deeper and more widespread saltwater inundation is impacting some neighborhoods in South Florida, or if it’s the inner demons released when teenagers like #Greta admonish adults, but this fall ...

1/ I’ve had an inordinate number of, um, skeptics (I’m trying to be kind) bending themselves into pretzels trying to contradict what we in #miami and Fort Lauderdale are plainly seeing with our own eyes:

the cities are under siege from the surging seas.

2/

Ever since I interviewed Kerry Emanuel at the onset of the 2018 #hurricane season, I've been showing some of the results of his team's downscaling approach that, combined with model simulations, can yield projected return periods for outlier cyclone events.

1/ At my public outreach and educational presentations, I've shown how a hurricane like Irma at 180 MPH approaching Barbuda, a 1-in-800 year event, could have its return period reduced to 1-in-80 years by the end of this century. Similarly ...

2/

As local media coverage expands on the now controversial FIU workshop for editors and journalists coming up next week, I have decided to publish the full text of my response to the university's invitation... (1/ ) ... to moderate a so-called "keynote conversation" between the Heartland Institute's James Taylor and the initial opposing "debater" Natalia Lever from Climate Reality. I declined the invitation, and offered an alternative, as detailed in this email sent on 26 January. (2/ )

Model forecast tracks for Irma this morning (left) versus 48 hours ago on Tuesday morning (right).

Images courtesy @weatherbell While one or two models have a lower #FLKeys to Florida’s west coast track, there is remarkable agreement from all others that... (1/n)