✍️ The State of the US Economy in 45 Charts, Edition #2 is now live ... link in bio! Enjoy!

GDP, Job market, Consumers, Interest rates & yields, Housing, Inflation and Recession probability. Research via sleek charts that say 10,000 words ... Enjoy! Structure and Toc ...

And now a thread🧵with the main highlights!

$TSLA Tesla Total Deliveries since 2012 ... ramping up actually just beginning? Food for thought ... $TSLA Tesla Model 3/Y Production
Quarterly data since 2020
CAGR: 61.00%

👉🧐Contrarian indicator = hedge fund equity market exposure which is now exceptionally low ... as during 2008 Lehman, 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2020 Covid crash & now with higher rates, recession likelihood ... Thoughts? Food for thought ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Complementary another contrarian metric & view:
👉CEO Business Confidence Expectations for the Economy & S&P 500
Thoughts ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities

Big Tech Q3 key remark: %YoY change in operating margin, let that sink in!
$META -14.0%
$GOOGL -7.5%
$AAPL -0.9%
$AMZN -2.4%
$MSFT -1.7%

https://twitter.com/Maverick_Equity/status/1585679390763008003

Big tech drag on the S&P500 / $SPY
$META $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $TSLA

$KR 🧵on a name not popular and not covered cause boring ... but makes money: +96% since January 2020, +5% in 2022 a year when not much worked ...
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities $KR Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities

$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐 $PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ...

Big Tech charts thread🧵🧵🧵visualizing fundamentals, less words, visuals say 1,000 words:
$META Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities $META Facebook capital allocation:
👉CAPEX fully deployed again: $27.6bn & 23.4% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at a crazy 15.2%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities

👉Buffett bought more stock this quarter than in 2008 when he saw a lot of value at a discount
👉I remember like it was yesterday reading his 2008 piece from NYT 'Buy American. I Am.'
👉And yes, I did buy as well ... almost 15 years passed since then ...
nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opi… during 2020-2021 was great to talk with @TSOH_Investing and conclude that BRK would be a very good risk/return profile going forward with a less friendly FED and/or likely inflation ... which yes, it happened ...

1) $PLTR 🧵thread after yesterday's Q4 Earnings Preview, today Q4 Earnings Review. As I expected, revenue beat but EPS miss: Q4 & FY 2021 Financial Summary, but let's dig in:🧵

https://twitter.com/MaverickBogdan/status/1493664826652082192

👉Revenue growth 41% 2021 vs 2020
👉lower Q1 2022 outlook (market not liking it) 2) 👉SPAC investments: I was expecting 50-60m UNrealised loss, came in higher with 73m
3) 👉SBCs (Stock Based Compensation) dropping materially in 2021 from 2020 as expected - guidance: SBC will be lower and will be inline with other peers (I am still modelling the forward rate)

The crowd sees cash as an attractive alternative at the moment. Cash is at highest levels since May 2020. What will they do with the cash should the war risk abate & central banks prove to be less "traumatic"? (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey) same survey showing how Tech Net Allocation fell to the lowest since August 2006 ... quite a crazy stat ...

1) $PLTR Q4 February 17th Earnings Preview.
What to look for in the Q4 numbers ?
👉SPAC investments: all SPACs got punished, hence very likely Palantir will book some UN-realised losses. My own analysis points out to an estimation of a 50-60M USD unrealised loss

https://twitter.com/MaverickBogdan/status/1458044472416260100

2) hence I do see a headline risk/opportunity on this occasion: media to focus on the wrong numbers and deploying bombastic/catastrophic headlines, highlights to attract eyeballs ... and all that kind of stuff

Kudos to Ark Invests's Disruptive Innovation theme, analysts, process, transparency & performance: they bought early what many did after ... BUT I'm quite puzzled how close $ARKK trades with Goldman Sachs non-profitable tech basket: 1y back mirror-like ...
#ArkInvest #CathieWood 3y back mirror-like ...

$BABA Alibaba deep dive because I like it deep, but I also like due dilligence: trading at 2018 levels when Revenues were 33bn VS now 110bn with Forward P/E 21.6x. Does Dr. Market think Revenues will be back to 33bn &/or fines will be that big ? C'mon ... .
So what's going on ? BABA is China's tech powerhosue: govy showed who is in charge, but they will let it grow: tech is a huge part of their economy. So, how much damage can the authorities make before they reconsider their "harsh" stance? GS: their digital economy represents ~40% of GDP & growing ...