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Diego Parrilla Profile picture
Diego Parrilla
@ParrillaDiego
Author "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World is Flat”. Engineer and Economist. Portfolio Manager Global Macro, Volatility, and Tail Risk.
Feb 5, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A glimpse of what we may be discussing tomorrow!
 
- The new paradigm of “high inflation, high volatility, high risk”. Why next decade will be very different from previous. 
 
- Central Banks trapped between bubbles and inflation, both their creation. Implications.

Thread 👇 -“Frogs in boiling Water” inflation analogy. Implications.
 
- How Currency Wars have shifted from “beggar thy neighbour” to “export inflation” and why stronger USD is a wrecking ball for global markets.
 
More 👇
Oct 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What’s the difference between QE and YCC?

Quantitative Easing, QE, prints “fixed amounts” of money to buy “stuff”

Fed printing and buying $120b a month for years.

QE is artificial demand, artificial yields, artificial valuations = bubbles

Thread 👇 Yield Curve Control, YCC, prints “whatever it takes” to keep yields at a given target, prevent bubbles from imploding.

So, QE creates bubbles…

…and YCC is needed to prevent those bubbles from imploding…

The problem?
Aug 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#reflexivity between #bubbles vs #antibubbles once again distorting markets

Artificially low #VIX forces quant strategies (trend, risk parity, vol target) to buy #SPX, squeezes weak shorts

#insurance tends to be cheapest when we need it the most

Anti-bubble framework 👇 1) Embrace #volatiltiy. Don’t fight it.

2) avoid #leverage, your enemy responsible for financial and emotional distress.

3) Seek negative #correlation and avoid risk of false #diversification. Remember that a portfolio with many holdings is not necessarily diversified.
Feb 26, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
How much political and ECONOMIC support does Putin have?

The UN National Security Council vote has given some strong clues.

Headlines focused on RUSSIA’ VETO,
CHINA’s ABSTENTION…

but most relevant for me INDIA’s ABSTENTION

Brief Analysis Thread 👇

reuters.com/world/russia-v… Given the circumstances, ABSTENTION at UN Security Council vote is NOT NEUTRAL, but rather in FAVOUR of Putin/Russia 🇷🇺

We knew CHINA 🇨🇳 would abstain. They want/need their resources, may be going for Taiwan 🇹🇼 next.

UAE 🇦🇪 abstention not surprising either.

But INDIA 🇮🇳?…
May 13, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) Obvious and inevitable. 
BTC not ESG. Tesla risked losing environmental credits, its main source of profits, lose ESG label, forcing exit of ESG indices, etc. = Game Over

Bitcoin: Bubble or Anti-Bubble? Read more 👇
linkedin.com/pulse/bitcoin-… 2) Tesla will eventually be forced to liquidate entire BTC holding, also due to environmental concerns. Likely to “Sell first, announce later” (same as entry) leaving greater fools holding bag.

linkedin.com/pulse/bitcoin-…