I spent the last few weeks reflecting on 2023 and consolidating my thoughts on the global economy and financial markets as we head into 2024. This started as a comprehensive personal exercise, but I ultimately decided to publish on X for those interested. Unfortunately, given the breadth of topics that interest me and the current state of world affairs, I failed to write in a concise manner. However, I think you will find valuable insights throughout.
Given attachment limitations on X, I divide my piece into 5 posts: 1) Introduction / 2023 Review (Pages 1-2) 2) 2024 Macro (Pages 3-5) 3) 2024 Macro Continued (Pages 6-8) 4) 2024 Investment Themes (Pages 9-11) 5) 2024 Geopolitical / Social Themes (Pages 12-13)
Introduction / 2023 Review
Feb 14, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
(1/10) We listened to calls with senior management of Haliburton $HAL and Hess $HES and found several comments on global energy markets to be interesting and insightful...
(2/10) We are at the onset of an upcycle with so much underinvestment the last 6-7 years.
This leads us to believe that this will be like no other cycle that we’ve seen before.
Feb 14, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
(1/11) Quick note on CPI…we remain bearish for many of the reasons stated in the tweet below and think hotter inflation prints will only keep the Fed hawkish for longer, inflicting more damage on the real economy and corporate fundamentals / earnings…
(2/11) Headline CPI came in at +6.4% y/y (+6.2% expected) and Core CPI (ex-food and energy) came in at +5.6% y/y…these were slight decelerations vs. December at +6.45% y/y and +5.7% respectively…
Oct 12, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
(1/16) Applied Materials $AMAT, a leading provider of #semiconductor equipment, became the latest company in the #chip space to warn of weakening trends (also ~$400mm impact from #Chinese#export regulations).
(2/16) The semiconductor space has seen a ton of volatility this year, but sector fundamentals and share prices are entirely following the playbook of the last several decades. Let’s take a quick look…
Oct 12, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
(1/8) At the beginning of the year we highlighted #consumerstaples as a sector that should outperform at this stage of the business cycle. Pepsi $PEP is the latest example with their Q3 earnings report this morning...
(2/8) Remember, people tend to demand consumer staples at a relatively constant level, regardless of price.
The “staple” characteristic in an inflationary environment allows these companies to grow revenue and earnings, even with flat volumes.
Oct 11, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
(1/12) Understanding mega cap companies helps us understand the broader #market because they have such an outsized impact on the indices people track and invest in. Yesterday we talked about big / ad #tech ( $GOOG $META) and today we are talking #retail.
(2/12) People forget that Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN are the largest companies in the world by sales...
Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
Oct 10, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
(1/14) Let’s talk big / ad tech headed into Q3 #earnings season…
Companies like Facebook & Google are important for any investor to understand because they make up such a large % of the indices which people refer to as "the market" (think S&P 500).
(2/14) On Facebook $META - sentiment is relatively mixed but leaning negative (see share performance). There appears to be a turnover in the shareholder base as the stock moves from growth to value.
