Everyone sees gold hitting new highs and thinks it's expensive.

What if it's actually... historically CHEAP? 🤯

A thread on why gold's real bull market may have just started. 🧵👇 We analyzed the data from gold's secular peaks in 1980 and 2011 vs. today.

The conclusion is unavoidable: Gold's price has NOT kept up with the very things that are supposed to drive it.

Let's look at the numbers.

Five years ago, @MarkValek and I launched the world’s first fund that combines physical gold with Bitcoin, each securely stored in Liechtenstein's storage facilities.

Despite facing considerable skepticism from the gold AND the Bitcoin-camp gold, the exceptional risk-adjusted performance of our fund now speaks for itself. 📈

🧵 Join us in this thread as we explore why integrating gold with Bitcoin transcends innovation—it's fundamentally transformative. 1/ Gold & Bitcoin share a rare trait: true scarcity. No central bank can print them into oblivion. 💰⚡️

🚨 THREAD: The Coming Global Trade Reset? 🚨

A major shift in U.S. trade & monetary policy could be on the horizon.

Stephen Miran (@smiran) dropped a BOMB with his piece📝 "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"📄

Full doc here: 👉 hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/h…

What’s coming? A new Plaza Accord? A weaker dollar? Tariffs funding tax cuts? Gold & Bitcoin surging?

Buckle up. 🧵👇 Stephen Miran (@smiran) has been chosen as the next Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).

This is HUGE.

Miran, already one of the sharpest minds in macro & trade policy, will now directly influence U.S. economic strategy.

I just finished reading his piece, and firmly believe:

This is the blueprint for what's to come!

Great chart by @WarrenPies that confirms what we wrote in "The New Gold Playbook" last year:

Gld rising more than 25% while the USD Index (DXY) is up more than 5%—is historically unprecedented.

Typically, a stronger dollar exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in USD and becomes more expensive for non-USD investors.

However, 2024 defied this pattern. Here’s why: 1️⃣ De-Dollarization & Central Bank Demand
Despite a stronger dollar, central banks—especially in BRICS nations—continued aggressively buying gold, viewing it as a hedge against fiat instability and geopolitical risks. This structural shift in gold demand is weakening the traditional gold-dollar inverse relationship.

Why Gold Remains the Cornerstone of Global Reserves: a little #thread...

1/11 Most major central banks still hold a significant percentage of their reserves in gold. Let's dive into the gold reserves dynamics! 👇 2/11 Recent gold purchases have largely come from emerging markets. These nations are bolstering their reserves amidst global economic shifts.

The Optimal Gold Allocation: A Deep Dive into Recent Research

A big #Thread on #Gold: 🧵 1/ What's the ideal gold allocation?

A recent ARC survey () highlights that 75% of managers surveyed have minimal to no gold exposure, with none exceeding 10%.

These results echo a Bank of America study, showing that 71% of US advisors allocate less than 1% of their portfolios to gold. This lack of interest extends to gold mining stocks, which have lost favor with investors due to poor performance.ftadviser.com/asset-allocato…

Rethinking Traditional Portfolios
(in Today’s Macro Environment)

A little #Thread: 1/10 Traditional portfolios are still dominated by a 60/40 mix of equities and bonds. But is this strategy still viable in today's economic landscape? Let's dive in! 🔍

The Old Investment Playbook Just Got Ripped Up

1/10 The fiscal situation in many countries is worsening due to persistently high budget deficits and rising refinancing costs.

Here is a quick #Thread on how the investment landscape has structurally changed! 💡 2/10 The US government finances have moved far beyond historical norms in recent years, especially post-Lehman. A clear illustration of fiscal dominance!

Just finished reading the brandew "Gold Investing Handbook for Asset Managers" by the World Bank.

The 72 pages report is indeed well worth reading and can be downloaded here:


For your convenience, I have created a little #thread to sum up the highlights of the report:openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/cor… “Because gold has multiple sources of demand and supply as compared to other major asset classes, its liquidity is less likely to dry up during times of market volatility.” #portfoliohedge #liquidity #stressliquidity

It seems that #Zoltan has been quite busy lately!

The newest, already 5th part of his "War"-series, was published on January 6th.

In this little #thread i've summarized some of the highlights of his piece "War and Peace:

🧵 "... four “war” dispatches last year: War and Interest Rates, War and Industrial Policy, War and Commodity Encumbrance, and finally, War and Currency Statecraft. In these, I identified six fronts (..) in “macro-land” () where Great Powers were going “at it” in 2022:

Happy New Year, dear friends!!!!

You know that I enjoy reading every piece that #ZoltanPozsar at #CS writes. His latest piece "War and Currency Statecraft" (Dec. 29th) was again very much worth reading.

Here's a little #thread with the most important parts: "What are G7 policymakers, rates traders, and strategists to do when threats to the unipolar world order are coming from every angle. They should definitely not ignore the threats, but they still do.

How could they not?"

Folks, you know that I enjoy reading every piece that #ZoltanPozsar at #CS writes. His latest piece "War and Commodity Encumbrance" (Dec. 27th) was particularly worth reading. Here's a little #thread with the most important parts: "A recurring theme in my dispatches this year has been that in a moment when the world is going from unipolar to multipolar, the actions of heads of state are far more important than the actions of central banks."

I have just re-read Zoltan's piece called "Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R"....Here's my little summary: Regardless of fundamentals, global banking reserves are not in danger of a liquidity crunch or default. This is because there are enough emergency backstops in place to essentially bail out anyone that gets into trouble by printing more reserves.

Just finished reading the new piece by #ZoltanPozsar "Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R...Fascinating read (as always), here are some highlights: "The SPR is like the o/n RRP facility. It can be tapped when oil levels are tight. But the SPR is finite, and recent releases have brough reserves down to levels
we haven’t been at since the 1980s. The 400 million barrels left in it isn’t much:

As previously noted, i really read everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out...His Aug 24th piece was terrific again. In this #thread I summarize the most important takeaways: 🧵 "War means industry.

This must be telepathy...Last night I watched "Trainwreck: Woodstock 99" () and then I read that @LukeGromen compares Powell to Limp Bizkits' Fred Durst at Woodstock99: "For the uninitiated, in 1999, concert planners hosted 250,000+ concertgoers for a 3-day music festival on a closed US Air Force base in Rome, NY. Between the near-100-degree temperatures, the complete lack of shade (it was an airstrip), the exorbitant prices for tickets and..

Just finished studying the July 2022 report "The Future of Copper":

cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0722/T…

Here are some highlights: It's predicting a 10 million mt shortfall in #copper supply by 2035, under its baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends in the capacity utilization of mines and recycling of recovered copper.

I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵: War is inflationary

....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...

Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…

Firms' Inflation Expectations: Not Unanchored, but Perhaps Unsettled?

Interesting read by the #FederalReserveAtlanta:

atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblo… "Said another way, the current bout of high inflation is unusual in many different ways, and how it will play out remains fraught with uncertainty. Firms' short- and long-run expectations have risen sharply, and longer-run expectations show a clear rise in the average firm's...

US Yield Curve Control ahead?

The Federal Reserve conveniently provided itself with the legitimation for future yield curve control: „The period 1942-47 provides some evidence that the Federal Reserve can lower long-term rates by committing to keeping short-term rates low. The brief period from 1947 to 1948 may also...

As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike: Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....