Manufacturing sector jobs growth is basically nonexistent so far in 2023, adding further weight to the manufacturing recession 1/4

Construction sector holding up better, but jobs growth in 2023 is well below the average in 2022 2/4

Since 1970, over the past 6 recessions (excluding Covid and 2001 because it had little to do with housing) the bottom in building permits preceded the bottom in housing units under construction by an average of 8.3 months 1/x The shortest lead time was 4 months in 1980, the first leg of the double dip recession. The longest lead time was 13 months in 2008 2/x

Have US Treasury yields finally peaked? 🧵 1/x

#TLT $TLT #bonds #Fed #recession #StockMarket #investing #trading #inflation They may have, but there are still significant risks. The market has been driving yields lower by pricing in a Fed pivot, NOT recession. First, why is the market pricing in a Fed pivot? 2/x

Below is another example of a lagging indicator acting as a leading indicator when treated on an inverted basis. CPI Services + Rent (inverted) leads Real Retail Sales (Consumption). I got the idea for this chart from @EPBResearch. I highly recommend following his work 1/x When CPI Services and Rent (lagging indicators) increase, it strips away income from the private sector, which reduces consumption. When CPI Services and Rent decreases, it frees up consumer income which leads to more consumption 2/x