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@tomaszrolbiecki.bsky.social Profile picture
@tomaszrolbiecki.bsky.social
@TomaszRolbiecki
Analyst @Ex_Trac. Open-source research on VEOs in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily Lake Chad. DM's open. Backup: @TomaszRolbieck2
Jan 17, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
With Ansaru publicly acknowledged as al-Qaeda's (or rather, AQIM's) affiliate in NW Nigeria, and its possible future attempts at using jihad to influence local bandit groups, I think it would be a good idea to summarize what we found out in the last two years or so. Note: While I am planning on posting updates, this is not meant to be covering the whole NW banditry conflict. There are many people on Twitter who know much more about the local situation than I do. Instead, I am trying to show how AQ might use the conflict for its own gain.
Jan 1, 2022 • 56 tweets • 25 min read
(THREAD) Terrorism in the Lake Chad area in 2022.
This is a compilation of open-source information (such as articles, statements, videos, claims + their verification, etc.) about the Boko Haram conflict.

The 2021 thread is available here:
A year ago, the then Chief of Army Staff, TY Buratai stated that the military will "shame and disgrace Boko Haram and ISWAP" in 2021. If you ask me, I will say it did not. Everything is almost the same + ISWAP conquered Sambisa from JAS and Shekau's dead.

saharareporters.com/2021/01/01/arm…
Dec 31, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
(THREAD) Kwatar Daban Masara airstrike.

On 26 September 2021, Nigerian Air Force aircraft launched a "preemptive strike" on a purported ISWAP meeting in the village of Kwatar Daban Masara, on the edge of Lake Chad. However, there are still some unanswered questions. First, let's check the village itself. The photos from 2010 show Kwatan Daban Masara (coordinates: 12.8063,13.8735) as a village populated by the fishermen, as several boats can be seen on the eastern edge, which leads towards Lake Chad.
Dec 6, 2021 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
(Thread) An attempt at reconstructing how the attack in Buni Yadi on 30 November 2021 unfolded.

Not a major one (thankfully), but the testimonies and photos give a clear insight into what happened. Before the main attack, ISWAP launched a mortar/artillery assault (nine mortar and five artillery shells) on a Nigerian Police station in the town. We don't know if they caused any damage.
Oct 30, 2021 • 23 tweets • 10 min read
(THREAD) Daesh released a new, 17 minute-long ISWAP video called "Makers of Epic Battles". It is the fifth video in that series, after the releases from Pakistan, Sinai, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In general, the video is mainly covering the attacks from ISWAP's spring campaign in northern Borno and Yobe, although there are also clips from southeastern and southwestern parts of Borno state.
Jul 27, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
[THREAD] How to read Daesh’s attack reports – some thoughts
Sometimes when I tweet about Daesh in West Africa reporting an attack, I get replies about it being “propaganda”. My answer to them is “I agree, but…”, however, that “but” can be sometimes a bit difficult to explain. The way Daesh statements are written is very formulaic. Most of them can be summarized as “By the grace of Allah Almighty, we attacked someone somewhere with some weapons, killing and injuring some people. We also destroyed and captured something, all praise be to Allah”.
Jan 1, 2021 • 946 tweets • >60 min read
(THREAD) Terrorism in the Lake Chad area in 2021.
This is a compilation of open-source information (such as articles, statements, videos, claims + their verification, etc.) about the Boko Haram conflict.

The 2020 thread is available here: If you have any information that is not necessarily open-source (by this I mean local info/intel) and you want to share it privately, feel free to do so. My DMs are always open. Any help is appreciated.
Jan 3, 2020 • 650 tweets • >60 min read
(THREAD) For the new year, I'm starting a new thread about terrorism in Lake Chad basin, mainly ISWAP (though not ISGS), but also JAS and Nigerian Army's response to the threat.

To see the 2019 thread, check here: On New Year's Day, the NAF said it targeted JAS camp in Abulam (on fringes of Sambisa Forest), neutralizing some of its members.

dailytrust.com.ng/air-force-neut…
Oct 28, 2019 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: Out of curiosity, for a year I've been recording every attack claimed by ISIS. I marked each one on a map. This heatmap is the result of my work.

Link: bit.ly/2W9csQT

Between 16/10/18 and 15/10/19, ISIS claimed responsibility for over 3000 attacks. If you want to look after a specific attack, there's also a possibility. Each dot is an attack claimed by ISIS. Because of the number of data, this map won't work well on older computers.

Link: u.osmfr.org/m/356241/

I apologize in advance for any spelling/location error.
Jul 4, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
THREAD: #Map: ISIS attacks in June 2019 (Interactive)
Link: u.osmfr.org/m/335413/

251 attacks - 52 less than in May - but some in less expected places (Mozambique, southwestern Syria, Grozny), increased activity in central Libya, a conflict against Taliban and pledge videos. The month began with another "offensive" - "The Battle of Attrition", which brought almost 20 attacks each day. After it ended, there were days when there were less than 3 attacks claimed by ISIS.
Jul 2, 2019 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A new ISIS pledge video, this time from... Azerbaijan. This really sounds interesting, but I haven't watched it yet, so I don't know if it's anything big. Okay, so it is *just* three guys with AK's, but that flag looks about a hundred times more professional than that one from Qawqaz.
Jun 28, 2019 • 191 tweets • 75 min read
ISWAP claims killing/wounded Nigerian soldiers near "Mana Ti" (Mile Ninety) yesterday.

Location: wikimapia.org/#lang=pl&lat=1… Image News more related to ISWAP than Lake Chad basin - photos showing the aftermath of the ambush on Malian soldiers west of Gao, reportedly from June 18: ImageImage
Jun 11, 2019 • 20 tweets • 9 min read
Nevermind the last tweet.
ISIS released a new video from Wilayah Iraq - Dijlah, titled "Separation of The Heads #2". The first one in the "series" was released almost 8 months ago.
Let's focus here on the dates and locations of the attacks, as usual. Before I start, I need to explain where exactly "Dijlah" is. While it could be simply translated to "Tigris" (as it's the Arabic name of the river), it's located between Hammam al-Alil in the north, mouth of the Little Zab in the south, Hadar in the west and Makhmour in the east.
Jun 6, 2019 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
THREAD: #Map: ISIS attacks in May 2019 (Interactive)
Link: u.osmfr.org/m/322765/

303 attacks (39 more than in April) in total. In May ISIS claimed activity in 16 countries.
Two new Wilayahs, bigger activity in DRC and more. Stay here for more information. Unlike April, there was no big "worldwide" offensive in May. Despite this, the number is much bigger than a month ago. 10+ attacks daily weren't anything unordinary. This trend has stayed in the first days of June as well.
Jun 2, 2019 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
ISIS has released a new, unexpected video, this time from Fallujah. Seems like here they decide to focus on raids on local PMF and tribal leaders (and let's be honest, there were some in the last months). Also, they released it just as I was about to gain back some lost time in my tracking of ISIS attacks (thanks for nothing, Daesh).
Apr 22, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
#Map: #ISIS activity in the last 3 months (Heatmap). About 100 hours of work during these 90 days, but totally worth it.

Link: bit.ly/2GqZZ3r

As in most of the heatmaps, red area = high activity. Blue = there was something.

More information below. Euphrates Valley south of Deir ez-Zor remains the main area of ISIS attacks. Red area in and near Baghuz is from, obviously, the SDF offensive in January and February. After the territorial defeat there only Hajin witnessed any attacks (three, to be exact).
Jan 25, 2019 • 507 tweets • >60 min read
(THREAD) #Nigeria: In this thread I will be posting all #ISWAP attack claims and everything connected to Nigerian Army's fight against the terrorists in northeastern part of the country. It will be better to have everything in one place. Stay tuned. Here is part of my work about #ISIS in December. The number of ISWAP attacks reported by their media has doubled compared to November: