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@athein1
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Oct 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ #NV #EV Estimating the Trump win margin for NV (thread)

After 5 days of data, a trend has emerged. The slopes of VBM D lead and IPEV R lead have been remarkably constant since the beginning, viz, 12 pts and 25 pts, respectively. ............... 2/ Let’s assume, for simplicity, VBM turnout and IPEV turnout would be the same as 2020 (This assumption gives a D edge). Let’s further assume that the E-day margin is the same as in 2020 (also giving a D edge).
Nov 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Now that JHU has censored its own scientists, I'm attaching here the cached report it published earlier. Shame on the political class that censors the scientists. The leftists and the #MSM are the #EnemyOfThePeople Contd. Here's the end of the article. We need to fight against this mad censorship.
Oct 26, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#FL #EarlyVoting This poll was conducted 10/20 to 10/23. Conservatively I will use 10/23 data and assume that 5.2m votes have been cast and 4.8m still to go. Let’s be generous and give Biden 52-48 for NPAs. Let’s assume equal crossovers. --- 2/ That gives ~470k Biden lead with those already voted. Out of 4.8m remaining, using this poll’s data, Trump will lead by 912k votes. Adding these together, Trump will win by about 442k votes, or about 4.5 percentage points. ----
Oct 20, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ #FL #EarlyVoting Explanation on why Dems Need such a Large Lead going into Election Day:

So many people were wondering why Dems need 653k to 900k lead going into 11/3/20. The main reason: 800k+ more Dems than Rs have asked for VBM ballots this year versus ---- 2/ about equal numbers (D = R) in 2016. Other reasons: Voter registration numbers have shifted from about 330k D+ in 2016 to half that much lead in 2020. There, 100k+ more votes shifting from D to R. ---
Oct 20, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#FL #EarlyVoting update: Dem lead increase after the first day of in person EV is 8.5k (combined VBM + in person). Dem lead is now projected to be well below the red line threshold of 653k. I suspect it might take a downward trend by this weekend. Rs will crush on ED. #MAGA Here is the updated graph:
Oct 19, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#NC #EarlyVoting by "Freeper" bort: Posted on 10/18/2020, 6:09:44 AM by bort

Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:

1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting. 2/ 2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)

3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..

4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.
Oct 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
#FL #VoteByMail In-Depth Case Study: Sumter County

Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ---- 2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.

I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----
Oct 10, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ---- 2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----
Oct 10, 2020 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the situation in #FL #VoteByMail

Florida early voting update (Good news)
Target Smart & @electproject ^ | October 9, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/9/2020, 8:58:43 AM by bort 2/ Returned vote by mail (VBM) ballots:

707K--Democrats/396K--Republicans/266K--Unaffiliated

If we assume that the "Unaffiliated" voters break 50-50 Trump/Biden, and we counted the ballots today, we would expect that Biden would be ahead of Trump in the VBM ballots ---
Jul 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#RBG #RuthBaderGinsburg Update

1/ This new info indicates a new milestone. What she most likely had was the tumor overgrowth around the existing biliary stent, causing it to be obstructed. --- 2/ What the doctors at Sloan Kettering did was probably what is called stent-in-stent procedure: placing of a second stent with a narrower diameter inside the old one. What does this mean?
Jul 17, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
RBG update #RBG #RuthBaderGinsburg

1/ As I have been speculating based on the publicly available info, RBG turns out to have been on chemo to treat her advanced pancreatic ca. It's got to the point where she can't hide it anymore. So she announced her treatment info today.. 2/ We have quite a few nuggets of info found in her announcement. A) She has liver mets, initially discovered in Feb 2020. That almost certainly confirms my year-old suspicion that she's had stage 4 adenocarcinoma of the pancreas...
Jul 15, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
RBG update

1/ RBG just got admitted to JHU this am. Last year, I predicted that she would probably have to leave USSC by the end of this summer. That time is drawing near and she has so far defied all but most optimstic expectations

supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/pre… 2/ given her dire diagnosis of locally advanced and possibly metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The following is what we know from the limited info available publicly and I'd try to make a best guess on her prognosis...
Nov 27, 2019 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1/ I present the following only because you are curious and this is just my speculation albeit an educated guess. The important facts that we know regarding RBG's pancreatic cancer are: In 2009, she had cancer in distal part of her pancreas that got resected and cured. 2/ In August, they found another cancer in the remaining portion of her pancreas (head/proximal part) for which she received stereotactic radio-ablation ONLY without chemo or surgery, and also she got a biliary stent.
Nov 24, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Comparing Alex Trebek's and RBG's pancreatic cancers:

There are some similarities and some differences between Trebek's and RBG's cases. The similarities are that they both have pancreatic cancers (both probably have ductal adenocarcinomas, likely stage IV.) ... 2/ and both are public figures. The main differences are their age (Trebek's 79 vs RBG's 86, each passing age further limiting treatment options), prior history of cancers (this is the second primary for RBG;
Nov 24, 2019 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
RBG status update 11/24/19

0/ I posted several tweets yesterday on the current hospitalization of SC justice RBG, which were not easy to view. Hence, reposting them below, followed by more of my analysis of the situation. 1/ To follow up my post from 10 days ago, it seems that the "stomach bug" is not going away. Of course they are hiding the underlying pancreatic CA that is now likely growing at the margins of the radiation ablation treatment. startribune.com/ginsburg-hospi…

Aug 27, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ RBG's current status update *******

They orchestrated this well. Their purpose is to convey the message that she is healthy enough to stay on until at least 2020. So, they waited until her radiation therapy is completed, ... 2/ while she went to broadway shows, etc and then today's public appearance at UB. The fact of the matter is that radiation therapy alone was most likely intended as tumor debulking as this is unlikely to be curative. They put in a biliary stent which bought her some time and---
Nov 6, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
FL EV update 7:30 am, 11/6/18 (ED) --- I'm pleasantly surprised. D lead has actually gone down by 2k to 22353. 2 days ago i conservatively said it might reach 30k. The reason for this is very reassuring for Rs, which is VBM actually improved since yesterday, contd..... contd. In '16, presumably due to VBMs, Ds gained 8.4k on the last day. VBM actually netted 449 for Rs since yest. This is similar to the overall trend where Rs outperforming '16 by 50-70k on each day of EV. It ends with an exclamation point of 74k better for R since '16. contd
Nov 5, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ State of the Midterms ---- Mere hours to go before what would become one of the most participated and most consequential midterms ever. Here are my observations. There aren’t that many MSM polls. 2/ Whatever polls they have, half or so are for lopsided blue ones like NY sen., CT sen or CA sen where 2 no R is running. The MSM rhetoric also is beginning to hedge such as thedailybeast.com/democrats-pond…

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/n…

And

politico.com/story/2018/11/…
Nov 5, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
FL EV update 7:24 pm 11/5 --- "souls to the polls" data is in. D lead now at 24689. When panhandle data comes in from today + contd absentees statewide, I conservatively estimate D lead to be at 30k or less, as mentioned last night. As long as Rs go vote, they win, hands down For more of what to expect, pls see my thread from last night.
Nov 5, 2018 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/ FL EV update 23:05 EST 11/4 --- Same day in '16. Dems netted 66k. It seems that they might not get that much this year, but it'll be close. @THEMattDanner spreadsheet estimates 22k R lead. I'll be conservative and make my guess at 30k D lead by Tue morning. 2/ That was the high end of my estimates from earlier today. The impact of Monday limited poll openings in panhandle would be minimal because those are all small counties and some aren't even that red.
Nov 4, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ FL EV update 7:21 am 11/4 --- As expected, Ds upped their game toward the end of this EV. Ds netted about 30.5k Sat. But, 14 counties yet to report, none of which are big blue counties and majority are red. So, Rs will improve on this by 4pm update. 2/ R lead now at 28k. Should gain back a few thousand by 4pm update. If Sun is like '16, we'd end up with about 30k D lead on Tue morning. In, '16, Ds led by 96k yet Trump won by 113k. So, Rs will win this year too, with a better margin as long as they go out and vote.