Olin ajatellut säästää tämän 🧵huomiseksi mutta olen oikeasti huolissani, että #turpo johtomme nyt pelaa arvo-korttia (tuemme kv järjestystä) eikä realismi korttia liittyen 🇫🇮 sotilaisiin Libanonissa.

Odotetaanko, että joku heistä tapetaan?

Ping @alexstubb @elinavaltonen
1/x Aloitin @FIIA_fi urani tutkimalla kriisinhallintaa. Kirjoitin siitä paljon. Olen myös (2002-2004) opettanut kurssia rauhanturvaamisesta @TuftsUniversity ssa, ja luennnoinnut #Kriha sta @mpkkfi ssa. Ja ollut kuultavana siitä Ulko- ja puolustusvaliokunnissa. 2/x

Julkaisussa kirjoitan: ”…esimerkiksi käyttämällä pitkän kantaman aseita sotilaallisiin kohteisiin Murmanskista Mustallemerelle ja Kaliningradista Uralin vuoristoon.”

En valinnut noita paikkoja sattumalta.
#turpo 1/x

yle.fi/a/74-20109689 Tässä ensin 🇫🇮-kielinen versio. 2/x

fiia.fi/julkaisu/puolu…

What does NATO frontline defence look like?

#Finland does a very clear piece of signalling by announcing an unusual exercise on the even of the #NATOSummit:

Lots to unpack 🧵 1/x

maavoimat.fi/-/maavoimien-v… The main highway from the border w Russia west into southern Finland (Vt.7) will be closed for a week (22.7-30.7) for @Puolustusvoimat led multi-authority excercise. The length, duration and time of closure make this VERY unique. 2/x
Map by @iltasanomat is.fi/kotimaa/art-20…

Every now and then the idea is raised that political decision makers “don’t have skin in the game” re war.

I am 💯 % sure the president of #Finland @alexstubb will never start a war but if attacked and 🇫🇮 would defend itself his son very much would have his neck on the line 1/x

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1801123351106027816

In fact, considering - well lots of things - on average there is a good chance that the younger Stubb would be in the first cohorts called in, even before formal start of war. 2/x

The annual survey of Finnsh views on foreign and security policy has been published. Need to do deeper analysis, but some top line observations: 1/x

Will to defend Finland, and Allies, is very high. EU, US, NATO seen to increase Finnish security

defmin.fi/en/the_advisor… The views on which entities/actors have positive or negative effects on Finnish security are not a surprise. It's indicative of NATO being seen as a (military) security actor, and the EU as an economic & broader security actor (for a good reason). 2/x

Parliament of #Finland is set to begin debate about changed security environment and needed changes regarding 🇫🇮 security policy (read seeking NATO membership).

🧵 focusing on what’s said implicitly and explicitly (follow #turpo, as other Finns are also sure to comment) First up is @Haavisto, presenting updated government report on security:

valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/governmen…

President of #Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa is speaking to Parliament of #Finland.

Thread on content and how I interpret it. #turpo Zelenskyy starts with recounting strike against railway today, and asks for a moment of silence to remember all the victims of Russian missiles.

Finland's Defence Forces clearly signals 'Game On'...

...I've been asked almost daily whether Finnish military has done anything recently to raise readiness. My answer has always been a Kimi-like: "yes"

Now its partially visible.
Thread follows. First a little background: Finnish security authorities like the Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) or Border Guard (BG, Raja) usually follow a ‘Do. Don’t talk.’ approach to communicating.
Talking about operational details is a no-no, with a few exceptions (more below).

Thread on Finnish #Hxhanke presser and decision, which is… Finland chose #F35. It was best in mil capability.

There are many key capabilities Finland's new fighter (#Hxhanke) will deliver (or improve upon), I've mainly focused on Long-range strike (LRS) and Intelligence/Info/ Data gathering.

Here are a few papers that go into further depth on them -->
1/x #turpo #säkpol #defense "Friends with (some) benefits: how non-allied Sweden and Finland view long-range conventional precision strike" in The Nonproliferation Review: 2/x

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

Gov't of #Finland new foreign & security policy white paper is out!
(Finnish & Swedish versions too)

julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/1… I'll add somewhat random observations in the format: quote + quip in this thread.

The order should not be taken as signifying anything in terms of priorities of the report etc..

1) @Puolustusvoimat released a trailer for an upcoming training video – Taistelukenttä 2020 – the other day. It depicts an escalating #turpo/#säkpol scenario. Some of my observations below (the videos are put together rather purposefully).

2) The video starts with a cyber or SOF operation to disturb electrical grid, and a “newsflash” on Finland being subjected to aggressive military and non-military operations --> std. thinking but good reminder that escalation doesn't 'build up to' mil force, it is integral to it.

1) National broadcaster @yleuutiset asked Finnish party heads about their security policy views (internal and external) - elections on April 14th - some thoughts on it:

Bottom line: Consensus is pretty broad on many issues. 2) there is some spread on whether current conscript/national service system should be changed. Interestingly some parties that frequently speak of #genderequality don't think it applies here. See potential opening for 'call up' for everyone but service still voluntary for women.