Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #säkpol

Most recents (15)

1. Highly laudable and interesting discussion
@AtlanticCouncil on a pressing topic. Arguments are met by argumnents, as it should be. Nevertheless, some reflections:
2. The future Russia and Eastern Europe policy of the Biden administration will have consequences beyond the US and the region itself, as will how the driving forces behind such a policy are articulated and defined - "values vs interests".
3. However, I would argue that the "values vs interest"-dichotomy is a false one. Upholding the normative global rules-based order in general and the #Europeansecurityorder in particular is a critical value and hard security interest.
Read 13 tweets
1. #Russia’s military build-up along the borders of #Ukraine, statements by Russian government officials, the exorbitant tonality in Russian state TV and other escalatory actions are reasons for real concern for European security. #OSCE2021SWE
2. Regardless of the intention/s (there might be several) behind this, it is a form of strategic communication, signaling – to Kyiv, the Biden administration, the EU and N4-capitals Berlin and Paris...
3. ...to test reactions and to state that managing, not to speak about solving, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can only be made on terms acceptable to the Kremlin.
Read 11 tweets
I don't know if there's a real risk for a Russian offensive, or if the movements are just part of the training pattern leading up to #Zapad21. However, this is one of my pet peeves - it's hard to tell an exercise from preparations for war. #turpo=#säkpol corporalfrisk.com/2016/08/13/exe…
"The only thing differentiating war from maneuvers is the last stage on the last day. The concentration of forces and the logistics is the same for both.” Lt.Col. Ben-Porat, AMAN, on lessons from Soviet repression of the Prague Spring (quoted in Rabinovich’s ‘The Yom Kippur War’)
Kofman has written quite a bit on the recent #Russia.n movements, and is certainly correct to preach caution and ask if it is different this time re water crisis and spring being a good for war. However, there's three issues were I question the reasoning:
Read 10 tweets
Norwegian ship engine manufacturer #BergenEngines to be sold to #Transmashholding. Now questions in Norway about what it means that the manufacturer and maintainer for a number of their key defense and coast guards vessels will be owned by oligarks close to Putin. #turpo=#säkpol
Notable that one of the areas where Russia still seriously struggles with covering the suppliers lost due to post-#Crimea embargo is boat and ship propulsion.
One of the solutions has been to buy propulsion solutions sold for "civilian" use or routing them through third parties, but this require companies willing to sell with few questions asked (much of the #exportcontrol in the field hinges on companies doing their due diligence).
Read 4 tweets
Gov't of #Finland new foreign & security policy white paper is out!
(Finnish & Swedish versions too)

julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/1…
I'll add somewhat random observations in the format: quote + quip in this thread.

The order should not be taken as signifying anything in terms of priorities of the report etc..
Shout out to @Ulkoministerio, who in their feed highlight continuity, predictability and long-term perspective as keys of Finnish foreign & security policy (F&SP) which is based on a human rights framework + coop on global challenges within int'l rules based order.
Read 25 tweets
Throwback till när vi hade rätt 2017:

"Istället föreslår Feministiskt initiativ träning i förebyggande av och skydd mot bland annat propaganda, cyberhot, naturkatastrofer och terrorism samt utbildning i sjukvård, pandemiberedskap och humanitär hjälp."

nyheter24.se/debatt/879300-…
Sen hade @Feministerna rätt igen 2018:

"Ett brett perspektiv på utmaningar och hot måste prägla den säkerhetspolitiska analysen. Även hot i form av pandemier och miljökatastrofer kan utgöra hot mot Sveriges säkerhet."

dalademokraten.se/artikel/debatt…
Men oj, hade vi rätt kring EU-politik också?

"Se mer av utbyte och samverkan kring säkerhetshot i Europa. Det är tillsammans vi har kraften att möta pandemier, terrorism, klimathot och naturkatastrofer. Därför är vi även för fortsatt medlemskap i EU."

feministisktinitiativ.se/100-skal-att-r…
Read 4 tweets
With #HXChallenge about to wrap up, here's an overview of what we now know: #HXhanke #turpo=#säkpol
#Eurofighter (still prefer #Typhoon) is strongly pushing the European angle with most major European powers having a stake in the program. Total sovereignty over mission data was also a big deal, and the (re)newed focus on EW-capabilities was also promoted
The Eurofighter has a bunch of strong cards: the independence angle is a big deal for Finland, as is the large number of major operators (second only to F-35) and the fact that it is likely the premier #QRA platform of the lot.
Read 17 tweets
1) @Puolustusvoimat released a trailer for an upcoming training video – Taistelukenttä 2020 – the other day. It depicts an escalating #turpo/#säkpol scenario. Some of my observations below (the videos are put together rather purposefully).

2) The video starts with a cyber or SOF operation to disturb electrical grid, and a “newsflash” on Finland being subjected to aggressive military and non-military operations --> std. thinking but good reminder that escalation doesn't 'build up to' mil force, it is integral to it.
3) at 0:15 “FDF begins mobilisation” – the political decision to do so would have many ramifications & could not be done in secret. However, prior to mob. FDF would have increased readiness and used instantly available forces...
Read 18 tweets
So a short thread on the #Russia.n submarine exercise, what it is and what it isn't. Note that this is based on the assumption that the article linked is correct. 1/5 #turpo=#säkpol
It is a rather impressive surge. Eight nuclear subs (SSN/SSGN) represents a significant part of the Northern Fleet's fighting power. Add two SSKs for good measure, and it is no mean feat. 2/5
It's not a break out into the Atlantic to cut NATO supply lines. The operating area corresponds to how the Soviet/Rusdian fleets have planned to defend their SSBN strategic nuclear weapons carriers for decades, by creating a defensive #bastion. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Twitterkontot @spectatorindex, som flitigt retweetas av bl.a @johanssonmorgan, är av allt att döma ett ryskt propagandakonto, inblandad i misstänkt valpåverkan i USA, och styrt från Moskva.

Lång rant följer!

>>

#svpol #säkpol
@spectatorindex @johanssonmorgan Ni har säkert sett de här listorna, där länder rangordnas, som ett antal statsråd roar sig med att retweeta? Jag noterade att t.ex @StegetEfter gjorde en satirbild på ämnet. De har väckt min nyfikenhet. Vad är det egentligen för listor? Vem ligger bakom?

@spectatorindex @johanssonmorgan @StegetEfter ETT, av många bör tilläggas, Twitterkonton som publicerar dessa listor är @spectatorindex. Ett konto med nästan 1,2 miljoner följare. Det är mycket! Men vad är egentligen "Spectator index"? Har någon någonsin hört talas om dem?
Read 25 tweets
Man får verkligen hoppas att politikerna har tänkt igenom detta. För det finns väldigt mycket som talar emot elvägar.

1. Det kommer att bli en ny infrastruktur som staten måste dra runt, likt järnvägen. Den kommer att förfalla och bli _dyr_ att underhålla.
#elvägsrant
>>
2. Ur ett #säkpol-perspektiv är det ett skräckscenario. Plötsligt han fienden i en gråzon slå ut _både_ tåg och välalternativet med metoder som är svåra att upptäcka som krigshandling, och därmed lamslå all godstrafik, inte bara tåg.
>>
3. Elnät för vägar kommer att vara svårare att underhålla och få att fungera i alla väderlekar och över tid än järnvägar eftersom det finns fler "rörliga delar" kring vägen. Räkna med avbrott. Men så klart så säger de som vill bygga den att det är superduperdriftsäkert.
>>
Read 15 tweets
Re-capping an intensive day by #Russian armed forces:
- Central and Eastern Military Districts were fully alarmed into a snap drill
- 2500 Spetsnatz deployed close to #Ukraine
- Military medical units deployed close to Ukraine
- 40 000 troops will be loaded to trains in East
1/2
- Novorossiysk naval base alerted and swept for mines
- Various communication and command formations deployed
- Special Recon unit prepared for an airdrop in the Karelia
- Unknown number of central Military district units loaded to trains
- Large Chinese force in Russia. 2/3
And the cherry on the top? DNR and LNR mercenaries are mobilizing the population in the occupied Donetsk.

Should we be worried?
#turpo #säkpol
3/3
Read 6 tweets
Fallout from @tggrove's Helsinki "war tunnels" story in WSJ rumbles on, with Russian responses...
#turpo #säkpol /1
@tggrove Classic Russian schizophrenic mixed messages - 1. We are no threat to anyone, you are hysterical and living in last century /2
@tggrove but at the same time 2. our weapons are invincible and you cannot hide from them, so don't bother defending yourselves. /3
Read 5 tweets

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