Gregory Smith Profile picture
Emerging market bonds. Econ PhD @bondvigilantes. Former @worldbank. Climate-social lens to investing/ ESG. Author: Africa debt book. Not investment advice.
Nov 2, 2020 7 tweets 8 min read
So much said about #China as an emerging lender to Africa (& globally). But there are others worth a mention who've increased their lending to African governments: #SaudiArabia #India #Kuwait #Brazil #UAE Thread. 1/7 Data been hard to find, but International Debt Statistics, published by @WorldBank just now, show external debt by creditor country. See large growth over past decade (since widespread debt relief). #China by far largest but others' growth important (especially Gulf lenders) 2/7 Image
Apr 16, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read
G20 has driven momentum on a standstill of debt repayments for the poorest countries. Necessary in this time of crisis. A thread of a few important points from yesterday's statement g20.org/en/media/Docum… 1/n G20 pledged for “time-bound suspension of debt service payments for the poorest countries that request forbearance”. What’s 100% included? Both principal repayments & interest payments. So far official bilateral debt (ie country to country lending). 2/n
Mar 10, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Was manic day in the markets yesterday. But amid the chaos #Tanzania strolled quietly away from global debt mkts, having dipped their toes for 7 years. So now 20, not 21, African countries in the eurobond mkt. Story as 6* thread As far back as 2008 Tz was seeking credit ratings & was anticipation might be issuing a eurobond. Most expected standard eurobond (eg 10 year maturity with fixed coupon, the norm then) but Tz decided to do own thing
Sep 18, 2019 10 tweets 3 min read
1. #Angola gov making reform progress but still much to do if debt risks to be contained. Some necessary reforms unpopular & risk of pushing too hard as economy recovery fragile. Need time to shift economy from oil & to jobs but time not on Angola’s side. Recent trip thread 1/10 2. Key areas reform for investors to watch 1/ FX. 2/ Balancing budget & stabilising debt. 3/ Privatisation program. Each important to gov & for keeping $3.7bn IMF program on-track (crucial for eurobond investors & China’s exposure). S&P has #Angola on a B- rating with neg outlook