How is the time-based power-law for #btc price affected by new data? On the left, the model fit on the data available at the time I published the model (hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw). On the right, the model fit on all data up to today. Barely any change! Good! The fact that the two fits are virtually identical means that the price action between September 2019 and now was perfectly in line with the 2019 model's expectations. From the model's point of view, nothing very interesting has happened! The new model is even a tad more bullish.

Excellent point! Yes, due to diminishing returns fixed-length MAs don't make sense.
It's highly likely that #btc will drop below the 200 week moving average at some point.

https://twitter.com/crypto_padawan/status/1537500127333478400

It seems to be implied that because #btc has never dropped below the 200 WMA (so far), it presents a good support level. Yet that doesn't take into account diminishing returns.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1536352056671354880?s=20&t=OxaBPQlopOg2e7ne1046UA

What to make of the current price of bitcoin?
In Sep 2019 I predicted that btc would continue to move in the corridor defined by the red and green bands in the future.
You can see in red how the price has fared compared to those predictions since then. 🧵
hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw A drop in price is of course not fun. But current prices are not something that should concern us from a fundamental perspective. We are in line with expectations (which have been set in the past, empirically).

Thanks for sharing your data, @davthewave!

I was curious whether I could model your "log growth curve" corridor mathematically, what I could learn from it, and how it compares to my own model. Insights below👇

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1483514480520986624?s=20&t=RscG_PC-w1-4EUcHFhciKg

Let's first look at the raw data points of @davthewave's corridor, using both a linear and a log time scale. Observations:
1. the corridor tightens with time
2. the price seems to have a terminal value, after which it does not grow anymore.

I have been criticizing the forecasts of S2F model since 2019, but I don't agree with this article. It arrives at some correct conclusions based on wrong arguments.
Let me elaborate.👇
bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/why-bi… The article claims that the S2F model is a tautology, and therefore totally nonsensical: "In layman’s terms PlanB is essentially asserting that “Stock is a function of Stock.”"
But is S2F really a tautology?

#btcusd: Should we expect another leg up this year?
I think not:

1. If the stock market is like an avg 2nd year presidential year, it will move sideways.
#btc is moved by similar mechanisms/confounders and is unlikely to behave very differently. 2. #btc just came out of a bull market.
The logical next thing to happen is a bear market, not another bull market.
However: This bull market was weaker than previous ones, which weakly suggests the bear market might also be weaker.
hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw

1/ #Bitcoin 's price history is full of time based power laws. Inspired by Sornette et al. I looked for bubbles and anti-bubbles that can be described by power laws.
Plenty of them!
Bubbles and anti-bubbles are short-lived. The long-term power-law governs all of bitcoin's history 2/ Same plots in log-log scale. #Bitcoin appears to currently be in a bubble. Bubbles ultimately deflate in an anti-bubble.

1/ I realized that my last article about #bitcoin's diminishing returns and volatility was a bit too long. I'll try to make it a bit shorter, in tweet form, here.
medium.com/coinmonks/bitc… 2/ Conclusions of the article:
- #btc grows slower and slower, long-term
- short-term volatility decreases over time
- these trends should continue in the future due to ever higher capital requirements