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1) no honour amongst Brexiters?
Last night's "This Week" on BBC had an exchange between Neil & Portillo where the latter said (essentially) "My analysis 12 months ago was the EU would have issues with Italy, the Baltic states & elsewhere, which would lead them to fold on #Brexit"
Last night's "This Week" on BBC had an exchange between Neil & Portillo where the latter said (essentially) "My analysis 12 months ago was the EU would have issues with Italy, the Baltic states & elsewhere, which would lead them to fold on #Brexit"
2) (Portillo then went on to blame the government for not exploiting this eU weakness & of course Remainer Civil Servants for hindering Leave).
This idea of EU weakness was common amongst Brexit leaders.
Let's put it in context.
Say you have 3 friends Gerry, Euan & Una
This idea of EU weakness was common amongst Brexit leaders.
Let's put it in context.
Say you have 3 friends Gerry, Euan & Una
3) Gerry, Euan & Una have all been in reasonably friendly Business partnership for 40 odd years.
However, Euan is going through a messy divorce & Una's mother is very ill. Euan & Una are therefore a bit distracted.
Gerry knows all this
However, Euan is going through a messy divorce & Una's mother is very ill. Euan & Una are therefore a bit distracted.
Gerry knows all this
1) Central #Brexit conundrums
It's comical & depressing that the current problems in #Brexit were set in stone 2 years ago by brexit leadership & have hamstrung it since
Brexit reduces to the following:
-The impossible deal
-The frameworks
-The wrong audience
-The failed joker
It's comical & depressing that the current problems in #Brexit were set in stone 2 years ago by brexit leadership & have hamstrung it since
Brexit reduces to the following:
-The impossible deal
-The frameworks
-The wrong audience
-The failed joker
2) the Impossible deal
Vote Leave won promising a pain free, cost free, FoM free #Brexit
This cannot be delivered
Any meaningful Brexit will hit the economy badly
Any Brexit that doesn't will be a "betrayal of leave!!"
Any party delivering either will be destroyed
Vote Leave won promising a pain free, cost free, FoM free #Brexit
This cannot be delivered
Any meaningful Brexit will hit the economy badly
Any Brexit that doesn't will be a "betrayal of leave!!"
Any party delivering either will be destroyed
3) the Frameworks
The SM, CU & other entities are legal frameworks, made up of EU treaties, WTO & international law.
It is perfectly reasonable for the UK to opt in or out of these frameworks.
It is not reasonable to demand 27 sovereign nations change those frameworks for 1
The SM, CU & other entities are legal frameworks, made up of EU treaties, WTO & international law.
It is perfectly reasonable for the UK to opt in or out of these frameworks.
It is not reasonable to demand 27 sovereign nations change those frameworks for 1
1) a competent opposition would have forced the hand of the Tory Gov. 18 months ago by saying "no, we won't trigger Article 50 until we see a #Brexit plan"
Even if they'd lost the vote, they'd have the high ground
They'd now be making political capital with Leavers & Remainers
Even if they'd lost the vote, they'd have the high ground
They'd now be making political capital with Leavers & Remainers
2) a competent opposition would now be saying "we knew the Tories had no plan, and now we are on a 2 year timescale, and time is running out - what a shambles"
An election winning #Brexit neutral position which makes Brexit about Tory incompetence & recklessness
Unfortunately..
An election winning #Brexit neutral position which makes Brexit about Tory incompetence & recklessness
Unfortunately..
3) this opposition can't attack the Tories for triggering A50 with no plan, because Labour went along with it
Not only did they allow the "overwhelming vote for A50" line to surface, they have nowhere to go in attacking the Government, because they voted for A50 with no plan too
Not only did they allow the "overwhelming vote for A50" line to surface, they have nowhere to go in attacking the Government, because they voted for A50 with no plan too
1) Let's talk (again) about Free Movement of People & #Brexit
I'm going to use the full title here (FMoP) for reasons that will become clear
Free Movement of People is progressive, by definition. The freedom to control your life.
No definition of "progressive" takes rights away
I'm going to use the full title here (FMoP) for reasons that will become clear
Free Movement of People is progressive, by definition. The freedom to control your life.
No definition of "progressive" takes rights away
2) I choose to work in 28 countries, if that exposes me to exploitation I expect the state to intervene & protect me, not take away my rights
Removing my rights in the name of stopping "exploitation" is victim blaming, pure & simple
Removing my rights in the name of stopping "exploitation" is victim blaming, pure & simple
3) if I can work in 28 countries, I have agency over a major part of my future. If that right is taken away, someone else has control.
Anyone of above average income already has effective freedom of movement, taking it away only impacts one group
Anyone of above average income already has effective freedom of movement, taking it away only impacts one group
1) An absolutely cracking exposure of @DanielJHannan and his #Brexit foolishness. This is what happens when you spend your life campaigning to only to destroy something, and when you are prepared to lie with dogs to get the win.
newstatesman.com/politics/brexi…
newstatesman.com/politics/brexi…
2) before the ink was even dry on the ballot papers he was dumping leave voters & their concerns and appealing to Remainers:
"Let's compromise on Norway, let's all try to agree that the middle ground is the one I wanted all along, with FoM & members fee"
"Let's compromise on Norway, let's all try to agree that the middle ground is the one I wanted all along, with FoM & members fee"
3) it was all a game to @DanielJHannan , look the other way whilst Farage put up.posters of "foreign swarms" & Vote Leave said "the population of Turkey is moving to the UK next week"
Let the leave masses be mobilised, used and dumped as soon as possible
Let the leave masses be mobilised, used and dumped as soon as possible
1) Corbyn's Authoritarian Labour
Corbyn has quickly fired multiple frontbenchers in the name of collective responsibility, whenever they said "leaving the SM may not be such a great idea"
This despite him being one of the greatest rebels in the history of Labour
So,... Gardiner..
Corbyn has quickly fired multiple frontbenchers in the name of collective responsibility, whenever they said "leaving the SM may not be such a great idea"
This despite him being one of the greatest rebels in the history of Labour
So,... Gardiner..
2) just before Gardiner dismissed the GFA as an outdated relic which was being overplayed, Owen Smith was fired for suggesting a #FinalSay on #Brexit would be a good idea.
Owen Smith was open about his comments.
Barry Gardiner was not.
Owen Smith was open about his comments.
Barry Gardiner was not.
3) firstly, he directed critics to his formal speech, in an attempt to direct people away from his comments following the speech, in which he twice refers to the GFA as an outdated relic ("shibboleth") which was being overplayed.
1) Leavers & Remainers this is what it comes down to.
There are significant numbers of people who will not be bothered by this and will not let this news shake their conviction in #Brexit
The rest of us have a choice, to let people like this set the agenda for the UK, or not
There are significant numbers of people who will not be bothered by this and will not let this news shake their conviction in #Brexit
The rest of us have a choice, to let people like this set the agenda for the UK, or not
2) #Brexit *is* a victory for dark money, division, racism & intolerance. It's a victory for the self interested who want to weaken our institutions.
Any politician who knows this & doesn't speak against it is a coward or a cynic.
Anyone who says "but what can we do?" enables it
Any politician who knows this & doesn't speak against it is a coward or a cynic.
Anyone who says "but what can we do?" enables it
3) everyone has a choice. Everyone can vote for a pro remain party in the local elections. Everyone can send a message.
Or you can vote Labour or Tory because you're tribal & enable & empower this nasty, dark part of our society
Or you can vote Labour or Tory because you're tribal & enable & empower this nasty, dark part of our society
1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so
Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again
buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
1) Megathread - Cambridge Analytica, Digital Marketing and why we're all missing the point.
Labour & Cons are very quiet on the whole CA thing, probably because they either used them or used similar techniques
But this is not OK, even if it's "normal"
Labour & Cons are very quiet on the whole CA thing, probably because they either used them or used similar techniques
But this is not OK, even if it's "normal"
2) What is democracy, and how does it work? Well, in the ideal world every single voter has access to the exact same information from each "side", and makes a choice accordingly. The more we move away from this the more fragile democracy gets.
3) if we go back even 10 years political organizations basically had 3 "mass market tools", TV adverts, newspapers and leaflets through doors.
These were fairly blunt tools. The best one could do is judge the demographic of everyone watching Emerdale and pitch accordingly.
These were fairly blunt tools. The best one could do is judge the demographic of everyone watching Emerdale and pitch accordingly.
1) I know this will be interpreted as more Corbyn bashing, but just spent an evening tweeting with 4 Corbynite remainers who all, in the end, prioritize Corbyn over #brexit.
So let's just put this in context
This, from Corbyn, is Rees-Mogg level nonsense
So let's just put this in context
This, from Corbyn, is Rees-Mogg level nonsense
2) immigrant bashing & falsehoods implying again the EU is holding back his plans. Johnson level bollocks about getting a deal which is like the SM but outside it. Nothing which helps fight or soften #Brexit but just continues Vote Leave narratives.
Below is reality of #Brexit
Below is reality of #Brexit
3) if you read the post below there is only one possible course of action for any Labour leader who professes to care about his voters, and that is to fight to soften or stop #Brexit, and to tell the truth about its likely impacts
opendemocracy.net/uk/martin-donn…
opendemocracy.net/uk/martin-donn…
1) Just so everyone is clear, the #Brexit that May is proposing, even if she gets it, is pretty much pointless.
We'll be a little bit poorer, won't have any additional "control" to speak of, and will carry on paying for the privilege.
We'll be a little bit poorer, won't have any additional "control" to speak of, and will carry on paying for the privilege.
2) the new FTAs, if they appear, will have minimal impact but most likely the public will argue against them in a "Britain first" kind of way.
The question from the Belgian journalist to May of "is it worth it?" will be the question everyone outside the UK will be asking
The question from the Belgian journalist to May of "is it worth it?" will be the question everyone outside the UK will be asking
3) Absolutely no-one will be happy with the #Brexit outcome save a few idiots who only care about the symbolism of leaving. Certainly it won't resemble anything like "what we voted for", whatever that was, because it'll be a new, flawed, contradictory & compromised Brexit
1) Someone else said this but I'm realising it's true.
#Brexit is complicated
Some leavers hate complexity. Anything they don't understand they think has no value & are suspicious of
They just want a return to a simpler life even if that life doesn't exist
#Brexit is complicated
Some leavers hate complexity. Anything they don't understand they think has no value & are suspicious of
They just want a return to a simpler life even if that life doesn't exist
2) many leavers are saying "ok, I didn't realize #Brexit was so complicated, this is high risk, we should stop"
But many are just retreating into "why is it so hard, why can't we just get on with it?"
But many are just retreating into "why is it so hard, why can't we just get on with it?"
3) I have a specialised job. I understand other people have specialised jobs. I understand that life contains complexity.
It seems for some leavers anything complex is deeply suspect, the harder #Brexit becomes, the more they dismiss the complexity and say "just get on with it"
It seems for some leavers anything complex is deeply suspect, the harder #Brexit becomes, the more they dismiss the complexity and say "just get on with it"
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments
With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments
With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly 
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM 
1) typical "you can't predict the future" response from brexit supporter. Lets consider it.
We know #Brexit will have a short to mid term impact, it has to due to ongoing uncertainty. Benefits must be long term.
However
We know #Brexit will have a short to mid term impact, it has to due to ongoing uncertainty. Benefits must be long term.
However
2) according to Iain long term forecasts are ridiculous, one cannot predict the future 15 years hence therefore the leaked report is worthless
Fair enough, but equally, Brexit supporters cannot predict benefits 15 years hence - it's a complete unknown for them by the same token
Fair enough, but equally, Brexit supporters cannot predict benefits 15 years hence - it's a complete unknown for them by the same token
3) so the #Brexit economic argument swaps relative prosperity for short term economic pain & a long term that is somewhere between very good & very bad, we just don't know, and neither do Brexiters, according to their world view.
Definite short term pain & 50-50 on long term pain
Definite short term pain & 50-50 on long term pain
1) That #Brexit election conundrum
Thread
By all accounts Rees Mogg is making his bid for Tory Leadership, which in turn may lead to yet another GE.
But this next GE, as things stand, will likely lead to another hung parliament because of #Brexit
Thread
By all accounts Rees Mogg is making his bid for Tory Leadership, which in turn may lead to yet another GE.
But this next GE, as things stand, will likely lead to another hung parliament because of #Brexit
2) that's because each party is polling roughly 42% and remain/leave is still roughly split 50-50
But both parties have leavers & remainers as supporting voters.
Maintaining the current status quo ("our Brexit is better than their Brexit") will lead to a similar GE outcome
But both parties have leavers & remainers as supporting voters.
Maintaining the current status quo ("our Brexit is better than their Brexit") will lead to a similar GE outcome
3) nothing will have changed particularly (other than perhaps it being clearer that Labour "accepts" Brexit) so there's no reason to assume 30 seats will shift either way.
Labour will be no more attractive to Tory voters than they were last year and the same goes for Tory party
Labour will be no more attractive to Tory voters than they were last year and the same goes for Tory party
1) Mike, it honestly pains me to write this but I don't know what good you are doing now in this Anti-brexit fight, in fact I'm starting to think your position is comprised in some way.
I appreciate you gave up on staying in the EU almost 18 months ago but this is getting weird
I appreciate you gave up on staying in the EU almost 18 months ago but this is getting weird
2) in the last few weeks you've attacked the #FBPE initiative, the LDs (calling them austerity enablers) & the remainer movement in general.
You've also now pivoted to saying "the only possible path is Corbyn's Labour" & you're even now getting behind Owen Jones
You've also now pivoted to saying "the only possible path is Corbyn's Labour" & you're even now getting behind Owen Jones
3) these may be positions independently arrived at, nonetheless they also line up exactly with the aims & approach of Labour momentum (who, for example, constantly follow the anti LD position & who hate #FBPE ). If it quacks like a duck & all that
1) Thread - Owen Jones (again)
Mr Jones has been involved in a twitter storm over his comments re Lord Adonis and why he shouldn't speak up about #Brexit because he's a "caricature of the elite".
“The Remain cause, and Lord Adonis” @OwenJones84 medium.com/@OwenJones84/t…
Mr Jones has been involved in a twitter storm over his comments re Lord Adonis and why he shouldn't speak up about #Brexit because he's a "caricature of the elite".
“The Remain cause, and Lord Adonis” @OwenJones84 medium.com/@OwenJones84/t…
2) now, I've seen a lot of anti #Brexit people say "fair enough, Owen's right here, he makes some good points on the optics"
Let's examine one of the key points, where Owen advises Lord Adonis to resign his peerage and campaign for remain & also election
Let's examine one of the key points, where Owen advises Lord Adonis to resign his peerage and campaign for remain & also election
3) by this we must assume Owen advises all progressive peers resign their peerage (like Tony Benn) and look for proper election whilst campaigning for Remain.
How would this work in practice?
How would this work in practice?
1) Clegg - a thread
There's a lot of flack going around about Clegg "propping up Tories" & "enabling austerity". Let's look at this with our reality glasses on because imho this is an example of why tribalism is killing our political system.
There's a lot of flack going around about Clegg "propping up Tories" & "enabling austerity". Let's look at this with our reality glasses on because imho this is an example of why tribalism is killing our political system.
2) firstly, coalitions are not unusual, in fact they are the norm in many countries. Entering into a coalition is just what happens in PR Democracies. We'll probably have a few more over the next few years. So entering a coalition is not "propping up" but a solution
3) attacking a party for entering a coalition is not a mature or reasoned approach to how hung parliaments work, if this was the norm no PR Democracy would ever get a Government
LDs are in coalition with multiple Labour groups at local level, and no one talks about "propping up"
LDs are in coalition with multiple Labour groups at local level, and no one talks about "propping up"
1) Labour & #Brexit - thread
Quick analysis of this article by @Peston
It talks about a recent private meeting led by McDonnell and is, hopefully a sign that Labour may engage on fighting hard #brexit
But...it doesn't put Labour in a good light
Quick analysis of this article by @Peston
It talks about a recent private meeting led by McDonnell and is, hopefully a sign that Labour may engage on fighting hard #brexit
But...it doesn't put Labour in a good light
2) firstly, this comment
This illustrates 2 things:
I) after months of people saying that EU membership doesn't limit Labour plans McDonnell has, only now, when #Brexit is at risk, gotten round to proving this for himself - what on earth has he been doing in the meantime?
This illustrates 2 things:
I) after months of people saying that EU membership doesn't limit Labour plans McDonnell has, only now, when #Brexit is at risk, gotten round to proving this for himself - what on earth has he been doing in the meantime?
3) ii) Labour Leadership launched this Manifesto without first checking if it was compatible with even a soft Brexit, therefore they have clearly been supporting hard #Brexit all this time, under the assumption it was needed for their plans, despite the pain it would cause
1) Thread: #Brexit supporters -
40 minutes of your time
Brexit supporters out on Twitter, obviously many of us are now entrenched on either side, but perhaps, 40 minutes of your time will convince you that Brexit needs to be stopped.
Here goes:
40 minutes of your time
Brexit supporters out on Twitter, obviously many of us are now entrenched on either side, but perhaps, 40 minutes of your time will convince you that Brexit needs to be stopped.
Here goes:
2) firstly, take yourself back to this time. Boris Johnson in typical fashion selling an impossible consequence free #Brexit
No changes, no impacts, everything we wanted in a bespoke free trade agreement. This was the Vote Leave message.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/2…
No changes, no impacts, everything we wanted in a bespoke free trade agreement. This was the Vote Leave message.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/2…
3) no one from Vote Leave said it would be hard, or tricky, or drawn out.
Remember this from Farage in the European parliament
"No deal would be far worse for you than for us"
The EU would give us the deal we wanted, it was that simple
Remember this from Farage in the European parliament
"No deal would be far worse for you than for us"
The EU would give us the deal we wanted, it was that simple
1) #Brexit & Futility, thread
If there's one thing that we know, it's that no majority voted for the kind of Brexit we're heading for.
Some of us can breath a sigh of relief, but it's tinged with frustration - there's no point to this #Brexit, but it's the only one possible
If there's one thing that we know, it's that no majority voted for the kind of Brexit we're heading for.
Some of us can breath a sigh of relief, but it's tinged with frustration - there's no point to this #Brexit, but it's the only one possible
2) it will be clear to most of us that the Unicorn #Brexit promised by Leave (no cost Free Trade deal on our terms, no negative impacts) was always impossible & simply a ruse to get votes.
Leavers have to accept that they fell for it to a greater or lesser degree
Leavers have to accept that they fell for it to a greater or lesser degree
3) to those who say "no, we knew what we were voting for", well, you may say you were voting for a hard Brexit but based on chats on Twitter most of you were still actually voting for an "on our terms" Brexit
1) #Brexit in miniature, and why reversal is so difficult for UK culture.
This is a classic Brexit story. A key EU agency is leaving the UK. For various reasons this move will cost £540M. The UK will foot the bill.
How will this be received in UK?
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
This is a classic Brexit story. A key EU agency is leaving the UK. For various reasons this move will cost £540M. The UK will foot the bill.
How will this be received in UK?
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2) well, 5 minutes reasoned thinking will lead to:
-Ok, obviously the agency must be in the EU
-We've chosen to leave the EU
-Someone has to pay, and if we're leaving it should be us
-It's annoying that the leasing contract was messed up but, well, someone has to pay
-Ok, obviously the agency must be in the EU
-We've chosen to leave the EU
-Someone has to pay, and if we're leaving it should be us
-It's annoying that the leasing contract was messed up but, well, someone has to pay
3) but how will the person highlighted in this thread understand it?
-He doesn't think we should pay a Brexit bill
-He doesn't know about, and wouldn't care about, the Medicines agency
-The Mail will tell him it's an EU stitch up, and he'll believe it
-He doesn't think we should pay a Brexit bill
-He doesn't know about, and wouldn't care about, the Medicines agency
-The Mail will tell him it's an EU stitch up, and he'll believe it
1) thread
#Brexit Ministers who are suppressing Brexit impact reports say they have bigger priorities than actually reading those reports
#Brexit Ministers who are suppressing Brexit impact reports say they have bigger priorities than actually reading those reports
2) so not only are there 50 #Brexit reports that are too scary to release but Brexiters can't be bothered reading them
3) this genuinely feels like the UK is going fruitloop bonkers.
MPs, elected to take informed decisions, have no interest in information
MPs, elected to take informed decisions, have no interest in information
1) strong message here for remaining #Brexit supporters
You were lied to, you are led by chancers, get a grip
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
You were lied to, you are led by chancers, get a grip
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
2) Yes, ok, Remain ran a terrible campaign & Cameron was an arrogant fool.
Yes #Brexit sounded easy & even exciting
But, enough's enough
Yes #Brexit sounded easy & even exciting
But, enough's enough
3) whatever happened in the campaigns, this is the reality.
There is no £350 M, #Brexit will cost far more than our membership
There is no £350 M, #Brexit will cost far more than our membership