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So long, Bobby. Enjoy the ride.
"I may be goin' to hell in a bucket, babe
But at least I'm enjoyin' the ride"
Oakland Coliseum, New Year's 1986/87
"I may be goin' to hell in a bucket, babe
But at least I'm enjoyin' the ride"
Oakland Coliseum, New Year's 1986/87
An appropriate track.
"Not fade away". NYC, 1980.
"Not fade away". NYC, 1980.
"Throwing stones"
If you haven't read the substack article linked below, do so immediately and consider this:
When you stack secure & uninterrupted digital text communications to Mullah Regime corruption and currency hyperinflation...
...the Mullah Regime is doomed. It's a matter of when, not if.
1/
When you stack secure & uninterrupted digital text communications to Mullah Regime corruption and currency hyperinflation...
...the Mullah Regime is doomed. It's a matter of when, not if.
1/
What jumped out for me about @shanaka86 substack article was the implications of secure digital text communications for the Maoist model of Revolutionary warfare.
See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. โฌ๏ธ
2/
See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. โฌ๏ธ
2/
Maoist Level 1 & 2 warfare has never had the secure digital text communications Starlink provides.
This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.
3/
This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.
3/
If Warden Rardin or Strassel acts: They admit they ignored a medical emergency for months, which is a civil rights violation (and a firing offense).
If Judge Murphy acts: He has to rule on the violence, the fake warrant, the medical neglect, the retaliation, etc etc... (which admits his court was used to launder illegal evidence.)
If the Prosecutor (Jerome Gorgon/Corinne Lambert/John Neal) acts: They have to explain why their office (Jennifer Newby) gave me Schedule I narcotics in the federal courthouse lobby with a receipt.
@USAO_DC @USAO_MIE
@USAO_DC @USAO_MIE
I am forced to witness a system I once trusted murder the person I love the most.
I cannot explain what this is like. I will never be the same.
I have had to be a lawyer, a detective, a forensic analyst, and a PR firm, all while just trying to be a wife who wants her husband to see a doctor. The level of cruelty here is beyond human comprehension.
So here's the throw-down @DivinelyDesined. ๐ค
You and me. Mutation Rates and the Saturation Problem.
The Stauration Problem is very simple to understand.
Take the Mutation Rates from your favorite out-of-date 90s or early nots' Pedigree studies, whatever you want it to be. That will be the ticks on our clock to measure the time it took for the observed sequence differences in the hypermutable control regions they used in these studies.
"mutations should pile up in mtDNA, but mtDNA is short (about 16,500 "letters" long), so after a while, the same spots get mutated over and over - like overwriting a chalkboard until you can't tell how many times it's been erased."
Yes. They should. And that is what we've found, all the way back to the Parsons study you love so much.
Out of that 16,569-base genome, just 6 hypermutable sites within the control region account for 11% of all mutations. For any given mutation event, there is a 1-in-9 chance that you will observe it along one of these 6 specific sites.
รrnadรณttir, Erla R. et al. Cell, Volume 187, Issue 15, 3904 - 3918.e8
If you would like, i can find you examples of recurrent hits to the same site taken directly from the Parsons study, or whichever of these early studies that did not know any better to control for this problem.
So, back to our clock.
What happens when a mutation recurs at the same hypermutable site?
It's just like you said, "like overwriting a chalkboard until you can't tell how many times it's been erased."
Exactly. You don't know how many times the second hand on your clock ticked multiple times on the same second. Now, think about that for a minute...
If a clock ticks on the same second twice, the time advances, but the hands don't move, so you are measuring something to have taken a shorter amount of time than it actually did.
If you are going to use the raw number of mutation events from one-or two-generation pedigree studies without accounting for the Saturation Problem, you are going to miscalculate the timeframe for the accumulation of genetic differences within the hypermutable control regions that YOU have chosen to arrive at your 6-10,000 year timeframe.
This is just one of several issues that present the same problem, setting back your clock dates. But we can address these one by one.
Your turn...
You and me. Mutation Rates and the Saturation Problem.
The Stauration Problem is very simple to understand.
Take the Mutation Rates from your favorite out-of-date 90s or early nots' Pedigree studies, whatever you want it to be. That will be the ticks on our clock to measure the time it took for the observed sequence differences in the hypermutable control regions they used in these studies.
"mutations should pile up in mtDNA, but mtDNA is short (about 16,500 "letters" long), so after a while, the same spots get mutated over and over - like overwriting a chalkboard until you can't tell how many times it's been erased."
Yes. They should. And that is what we've found, all the way back to the Parsons study you love so much.
Out of that 16,569-base genome, just 6 hypermutable sites within the control region account for 11% of all mutations. For any given mutation event, there is a 1-in-9 chance that you will observe it along one of these 6 specific sites.
รrnadรณttir, Erla R. et al. Cell, Volume 187, Issue 15, 3904 - 3918.e8
If you would like, i can find you examples of recurrent hits to the same site taken directly from the Parsons study, or whichever of these early studies that did not know any better to control for this problem.
So, back to our clock.
What happens when a mutation recurs at the same hypermutable site?
It's just like you said, "like overwriting a chalkboard until you can't tell how many times it's been erased."
Exactly. You don't know how many times the second hand on your clock ticked multiple times on the same second. Now, think about that for a minute...
If a clock ticks on the same second twice, the time advances, but the hands don't move, so you are measuring something to have taken a shorter amount of time than it actually did.
If you are going to use the raw number of mutation events from one-or two-generation pedigree studies without accounting for the Saturation Problem, you are going to miscalculate the timeframe for the accumulation of genetic differences within the hypermutable control regions that YOU have chosen to arrive at your 6-10,000 year timeframe.
This is just one of several issues that present the same problem, setting back your clock dates. But we can address these one by one.
Your turn...
If you would like a preview of things to come, i made a transcript of Dr. Bryan Gitschlag's discussion with Rebekah Davis on her @examiningorigins Youtube channel.
Dr. Bryan Gitschlag is exactly the right authority on mtDNA to explain how the raw Mutation Rate cannot equal long-term Substitution Rates.
He changed her mind.
I made the title a link to the video if you would like to watch it.
docs.google.com/document/d/1DIโฆ
Dr. Bryan Gitschlag is exactly the right authority on mtDNA to explain how the raw Mutation Rate cannot equal long-term Substitution Rates.
He changed her mind.
I made the title a link to the video if you would like to watch it.
docs.google.com/document/d/1DIโฆ
Dr. Cardinale was also able to get through to Rebekah Davis on the problem of Background Selection.
---
Cardinale: What happens when that individual dies? What happens to the 10 mutations in the control region? Do those get passed on, or do those also go away?
Rebekah: Well, as you said, this is the background selection. They it it's linked together. It's also it's gone.
Cardinale: So, they go away. So, would the rate at which those 10 mutations occurred be equal to the rate at which they achieve fixation?
Rebekah: Oh, okay. I see the point that you're making. Yeah. Okay. That's background selection.
Cardinale: We agree that most of the mitochondrial DNA experiences very strong purifying selection... We agree that because it's essentially a bacterial chromosome, it's non-recombining... And we agree that if you select out a mutation in the coding region, you also lose whatever mutations are present in the control region.
That's background selection. ... The necessary mathematical consequences of that is that the mutation rate and the substitution rate don't equal each other.
That's it. That's the whole argument.
---
We can visit the Back Selection Problem together before or after you address the Saturation Problem. Up to you. Take all the time you need.
youtu.be/FZVbBB_uutA?siโฆ
---
Cardinale: What happens when that individual dies? What happens to the 10 mutations in the control region? Do those get passed on, or do those also go away?
Rebekah: Well, as you said, this is the background selection. They it it's linked together. It's also it's gone.
Cardinale: So, they go away. So, would the rate at which those 10 mutations occurred be equal to the rate at which they achieve fixation?
Rebekah: Oh, okay. I see the point that you're making. Yeah. Okay. That's background selection.
Cardinale: We agree that most of the mitochondrial DNA experiences very strong purifying selection... We agree that because it's essentially a bacterial chromosome, it's non-recombining... And we agree that if you select out a mutation in the coding region, you also lose whatever mutations are present in the control region.
That's background selection. ... The necessary mathematical consequences of that is that the mutation rate and the substitution rate don't equal each other.
That's it. That's the whole argument.
---
We can visit the Back Selection Problem together before or after you address the Saturation Problem. Up to you. Take all the time you need.
youtu.be/FZVbBB_uutA?siโฆ
Three ways Trumpโs legal threat against Powell could backfire:
1. Trumpโs revenge prosecutions have so far largely fallen flat -- and if charge are brought here as well, they would likely lead to another embarrassing legal loss. The theory behind charging Powell relies on parsing the definition of the phrase โserious renovationโ and other alleged lies that will be difficult to convict on.
1. Trumpโs revenge prosecutions have so far largely fallen flat -- and if charge are brought here as well, they would likely lead to another embarrassing legal loss. The theory behind charging Powell relies on parsing the definition of the phrase โserious renovationโ and other alleged lies that will be difficult to convict on.
2. It could make it harder to confirm a successor to Powell, as weโve already seen from Tillis.
Senate Banking Committee is split 13-11. A nay vote from Tillis = a 12-12 vote. A 12-12 vote in committee = no Fed chair nominee makes it to the Senate floor. Simple as that.
Tillis is making Trump choose: he can continue this investigation, or he can pick the next Fed chair, but he canโt do both.
Senate Banking Committee is split 13-11. A nay vote from Tillis = a 12-12 vote. A 12-12 vote in committee = no Fed chair nominee makes it to the Senate floor. Simple as that.
Tillis is making Trump choose: he can continue this investigation, or he can pick the next Fed chair, but he canโt do both.
3. It could make Powell dig his heels in. In the short term, that could mean defying Trumpโs wishes of cutting interest rates.
In the long term, that could mean staying on the Fed board. Powellโs term as chair ends in May -- but his term on the board goes until 2028. If Powell stays on as governor even after heโs done as chair, Trump only gets to fill 1 Fed seat this year, not 2.
In the long term, that could mean staying on the Fed board. Powellโs term as chair ends in May -- but his term on the board goes until 2028. If Powell stays on as governor even after heโs done as chair, Trump only gets to fill 1 Fed seat this year, not 2.
NEW: The GoFundMe for Jonathan Ross Bill Ackman gave $10k to was created by a man with a profile image of what the ADL called a white supremacist hate symbol, who called Good โa stupod bitch who got what she deserved.โ
It's raised over $400k and is still live.
โThe stupid cunts wanna make a go fund me for the stupod bitch that got what she deserved,โ said the since-edited post, which linked to the Ross campaign. โi made one for the ice officer that did his job lets get this man some money.โ
It's raised over $400k and is still live.
โThe stupid cunts wanna make a go fund me for the stupod bitch that got what she deserved,โ said the since-edited post, which linked to the Ross campaign. โi made one for the ice officer that did his job lets get this man some money.โ
When Ackman donated to the campaign for Ross, the description included a reference to Rossโs legal fees.
@RpsAgainstTrump Yes NATO needs OTAN (french : OTAN was once again a French initiative initialy) except when USA use their NATO bases to attack an ally.
And for idiots, "NATO bases are only americans bases" because USA want it !
And for idiots, "NATO bases are only americans bases" because USA want it !
@RpsAgainstTrump Reason from De Gaulle to demand that the NATO bases leave France because USA didn't want NATO bases in France to be French (or other OTAN/NATO allies) but "Amercians Only".
2/3
2/3
@RpsAgainstTrump De Gaulle was right again (reason why USA, British like Russians & Germans hate/cancel De Gaulle of History) & thus a visionary of the possible betrayals from USA for an "American madness" from a "President" destroying Democracy* & forgetting the TRUE ally (like #France)...
1/๐จ๐ณ#CHINA-๐ป๐ณ#VIETNAM: PRC maritime militia buildup in the Paracel Islands
It's not just the rhetoric around the Paracel Islands that has been increasing. China moved 7 maritime militia ships to the disputed archipelago on 2 December & is now involving them in its sovereignty assertion patrols off the central Vietnam coast. [๐งต1/5]
It's not just the rhetoric around the Paracel Islands that has been increasing. China moved 7 maritime militia ships to the disputed archipelago on 2 December & is now involving them in its sovereignty assertion patrols off the central Vietnam coast. [๐งต1/5]
2/There's a long history of the ๐จ๐ณ#China Coast Guard asserting Beijing's sovereignty off ๐ป๐ณ#Vietnam's central coast (west of the Paracels) & Vietnam countering with its own maritime militia. What's new is the direct involvement of China's maritime militia in these ops. [๐งต2/5]
3/This development coincides with the recent discovery of new ๐จ๐ณ#PRC land reclamation activity at Antelope Reef in the western Parecels, which was discovered by the sharp-eyed #OSINT analyst @detresfa_. [๐งต3/5]
Illinois lawmakers are pushing a backdoor gun ban. HB3320 and SB2279 would impose what amounts to a $1,600 tax per firearm, driving manufacturers out, shutting down FFLs, and pricing families out of self-defense. This isnโt safetyโitโs control. Stand up now before Illinois loses its lawful gun industry.
Illinois lawmakers are pushing two dangerous billsโHB3320 and SB2279โthat would fundamentally cripple the lawful firearm industry in our state.
Under the so-called Responsibility in Firearm Legislation Act, the state would extract nearly one billion dollars per year from firearm manufacturers. That cost doesnโt stay in Springfield. It gets passed directly to distributors, retailers, and ultimately to you.
When the math is done, this becomes an effective $1,600 excise tax on every firearm sold in Illinois.
Under the so-called Responsibility in Firearm Legislation Act, the state would extract nearly one billion dollars per year from firearm manufacturers. That cost doesnโt stay in Springfield. It gets passed directly to distributors, retailers, and ultimately to you.
When the math is done, this becomes an effective $1,600 excise tax on every firearm sold in Illinois.
That isnโt regulation. Itโs a financial weapon aimed at the Second Amendment.
Gun stores in Illinois already operate on thin margins. Many are family-owned businesses serving their communities for generations. They cannot survive inventory that becomes unaffordable overnight. Manufacturers will stop shipping to Illinois. Retailers will lose access to products. FFLs will close. Jobs will disappear.
Gun stores in Illinois already operate on thin margins. Many are family-owned businesses serving their communities for generations. They cannot survive inventory that becomes unaffordable overnight. Manufacturers will stop shipping to Illinois. Retailers will lose access to products. FFLs will close. Jobs will disappear.
@michaeldweiss 1).
โRussiaโs invasion of Ukraineโand the Western sanctions that followedโsparked a rapid expansion of the global dark fleet, an armada of more than 1,000 tankers with obscure ownership and no Western insurance, according to some analysts.
โRussiaโs invasion of Ukraineโand the Western sanctions that followedโsparked a rapid expansion of the global dark fleet, an armada of more than 1,000 tankers with obscure ownership and no Western insurance, according to some analysts.
@michaeldweiss 2).
The vessels conceal their role in shipping oil by using deceptive tactics, such as switching off their radio signals to obscure their movements and transferring cargo to other vessels in poorly monitored waters.
The vessels conceal their role in shipping oil by using deceptive tactics, such as switching off their radio signals to obscure their movements and transferring cargo to other vessels in poorly monitored waters.
@michaeldweiss 3).
Most of these tankers are over 15 years old, prompting fears of major spills and collisions.โ
Jan. 6, 2026
@WSJ archive.is/20260107081651โฆ
Most of these tankers are over 15 years old, prompting fears of major spills and collisions.โ
Jan. 6, 2026
@WSJ archive.is/20260107081651โฆ
@michaeldweiss 1).
โThe interception of Bella 1 underscores the ties linking Venezuelaโs state-run oil company, Petrรณleos de Venezuela, known as PdVSA, with Russia, as well as Moscowโs broader role in assembling the shadow tanker fleet.
โThe interception of Bella 1 underscores the ties linking Venezuelaโs state-run oil company, Petrรณleos de Venezuela, known as PdVSA, with Russia, as well as Moscowโs broader role in assembling the shadow tanker fleet.
@michaeldweiss 2).
The number of shadow tankers previously dedicated to moving Iranian and Venezuelan oil ballooned to accommodate Russiaโs high level of oil exports when the U.S. and allies imposed sanctions on the countryโs crude sales after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.โ
The number of shadow tankers previously dedicated to moving Iranian and Venezuelan oil ballooned to accommodate Russiaโs high level of oil exports when the U.S. and allies imposed sanctions on the countryโs crude sales after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.โ
