Thread Reader helps you read and share Twitter threads easily!
I'm @ThreadReaderApp a Twitter bot here to help you read threads more easily. To trigger me, you just have to reply to (or quote) any tweet of the thread you want to unroll and mention me with the "unroll" keyword and I'll send you a link back on Twitter 😀
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) November 25, 2017
X thread is series of posts by the same author connected with a line!
From any post in the thread, mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll
Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us easily!
Practice here first or read more on our help page!
Recent
HOW TO TIME SWING TRADES 101
Stocks and the market don’t move in straight lines.
They move in cycles.
If you start thinking in cycles, your timing for entries and exits improves fast.
This is the only thread you'll ever need 🧵
Stocks and the market don’t move in straight lines.
They move in cycles.
If you start thinking in cycles, your timing for entries and exits improves fast.
This is the only thread you'll ever need 🧵
Most “bad swing trades” are not bad picks, they’re bad context.
Great breakout + wrong market phase = chop, decay, doubt, exit.
Here’s the difference between pros and novices:
Novices trade what they see right now.
Pros trade the phase we’re in and wait for confirmation.
Great breakout + wrong market phase = chop, decay, doubt, exit.
Here’s the difference between pros and novices:
Novices trade what they see right now.
Pros trade the phase we’re in and wait for confirmation.
Market phases show up over and over:
- Sweet spot (trend is clean)
- Compression (pause inside trend)
- Channel (trend still up, but choppy)
- Transition (range, whipsaws, survival mode)
- Sweet spot (trend is clean)
- Compression (pause inside trend)
- Channel (trend still up, but choppy)
- Transition (range, whipsaws, survival mode)
1/ This is all true, but Trump doesn't appear to care about anything that doesn't affect him personally.
2/ A new paper in the journal International Organization gives a good explanation of Trump's organising principle, which the authors call "neo-royalism" (analogous to roughly 16th century Europe):
3/ "The neo-royalist order centers on an international system structured by a small group of hyper elites, which we term cliques.
Most PMs struggle with difficult stakeholders. The advice? "Be more strategic." "Manage up better."
Sounds smart—but it's useless. If it worked, you'd already be doing it.
The real solution? It’s not what you think. Here’s what actually works 🧠👇
Sounds smart—but it's useless. If it worked, you'd already be doing it.
The real solution? It’s not what you think. Here’s what actually works 🧠👇
1/ First, a reality check:
If you're dealing with aggressive stakeholders, you're not alone. I spent 2 years getting steamrolled in meetings until I discovered how behavioral psychology changes everything.
If you're dealing with aggressive stakeholders, you're not alone. I spent 2 years getting steamrolled in meetings until I discovered how behavioral psychology changes everything.
2/ The core problem isn't your stakeholders.
It's that you're using logic to solve an emotional problem.
This is why "showing the data" often backfires - it makes angry stakeholders even more defensive.
It's that you're using logic to solve an emotional problem.
This is why "showing the data" often backfires - it makes angry stakeholders even more defensive.
Such Islamists in the video are not proponents of the people of Iran.
They are behind of the making of Global Caliphate.
Israel by itself need a power to free them from the ongoing things otherwise the real temple won't be established.
These Saudis and similar Islamists all are the army of Antichrist to prevent the prophecies in the Bible.
Don't be fooled by what they say. They are looking to fulfill the establishment of Global Caliphate. Shame on them!
x.com/plasticartman2…
They are behind of the making of Global Caliphate.
Israel by itself need a power to free them from the ongoing things otherwise the real temple won't be established.
These Saudis and similar Islamists all are the army of Antichrist to prevent the prophecies in the Bible.
Don't be fooled by what they say. They are looking to fulfill the establishment of Global Caliphate. Shame on them!
x.com/plasticartman2…
Although Iran is not in a good situation but the ongoing agenda of Islamism is to disprove Bible and Biblical events and prophecies.
In the Bible there is no sign of the helping of Christians and Israel to Iran to get freedom.
If they do this agenda of Islamism then they become successful in disproving the Bible and make their own Global Caliphate.
Don't pay attention to them. Let them bark and cry for their hell of the Global Caliphate.
The establishment of the Global Caliphate equals death for all Christians. Then don't help them to reach their goals.
In the Bible there is no sign of the helping of Christians and Israel to Iran to get freedom.
If they do this agenda of Islamism then they become successful in disproving the Bible and make their own Global Caliphate.
Don't pay attention to them. Let them bark and cry for their hell of the Global Caliphate.
The establishment of the Global Caliphate equals death for all Christians. Then don't help them to reach their goals.
This is either a profound misunderstanding of the data or a deliberate misrepresentation of it.🧵
2/ The "three deaths" claim is wrong. Pre-vaccine, rotavirus caused 20 to 60 deaths annually in US children under 5. But focusing on deaths misses the point: rotavirus caused 410,000 physician visits, 200,000+ ER visits, and 55,000-70,000 hospitalizations every year, costing about $1 billion annually. Since vaccination, hospitalizations dropped ~80%. The vaccine prevents 40,000-50,000 hospitalizations per year.
cdc.gov/pinkbook/hcp/t…
cdc.gov/pinkbook/hcp/t…
3/ The claim about current vaccines causing deaths is unsupported. In Phase III trials, RotaTeq had 25 deaths among vaccine recipients vs 27 in placebo (the most common cause was SIDS, "which was observed in 8 recipients of RotaTeq and 9 placebo recipients"). Rotarix showed 0.13% deaths in the vaccine group vs 0.11% in placebo. No deaths were attributed to either vaccine.
fda.gov/media/75718/do…
fda.gov/media/75718/do…
2025 investor-letter pitches I shared have already delivered major wins.
But some of the strongest setups from this year are still hiding in plain sight, with real multibagger potential.
Here are my 10 highest-conviction ideas that remain fully actionable👇
But some of the strongest setups from this year are still hiding in plain sight, with real multibagger potential.
Here are my 10 highest-conviction ideas that remain fully actionable👇
1/ $TIC pitch by @_Tourlite
Provider of asset integrity services that keep industrial facilities safe and compliant. Recurring revenue driven by required inspections and maintenance across critical infrastructure, a steady, regulation-driven business model.
Provider of asset integrity services that keep industrial facilities safe and compliant. Recurring revenue driven by required inspections and maintenance across critical infrastructure, a steady, regulation-driven business model.
Clear parallels to $APG's margin-inflection story in a regulated market. APG became a 5-bagger, and TIC looks positioned on a similar trajectory. The recent acquisition adds scale, synergies, and cross-sell potential. Trades at a teens norm. 2027 FCF yield.
At −20°C, life without heating is tough.
Because of russia's constant attacks, Ukrainians have to adapt to this new reality, which is still better than russian occupation.
Look at how Kyiv residents deal with this challenge and donate to help prevent it:
u24.gov.ua/nafo-dark-nigh…
Because of russia's constant attacks, Ukrainians have to adapt to this new reality, which is still better than russian occupation.
Look at how Kyiv residents deal with this challenge and donate to help prevent it:
u24.gov.ua/nafo-dark-nigh…
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG Claims of “no long-term data” and inevitable widespread regret are not supported by the evidence.
• Persistence of gender dysphoria: Longitudinal cohort studies show that adolescents presenting to specialist gender clinics have high persistence rates, particularly once
• Persistence of gender dysphoria: Longitudinal cohort studies show that adolescents presenting to specialist gender clinics have high persistence rates, particularly once
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG dysphoria has intensified at puberty (Steensma et al., J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry, 2013; de Vries et al., Pediatrics, 2011).
• Psychological outcomes with treatment: The only prospective cohort with extended follow-up into young adulthood found improved psychosocial
• Psychological outcomes with treatment: The only prospective cohort with extended follow-up into young adulthood found improved psychosocial
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG functioning after puberty suppression followed by gender-affirming treatment (de Vries et al., Pediatrics, 2014).
• Regret rates: Regret following gender-affirming medical treatment is consistently low in long-term follow-up studies and systematic reviews (Dhejne et al., PLoS
• Regret rates: Regret following gender-affirming medical treatment is consistently low in long-term follow-up studies and systematic reviews (Dhejne et al., PLoS
I’ve gotten a lot of messages asking about my BioPick selection for this year, $TENX. I’ve responded to a few but don’t have the time to respond to everyone.
I actually considered making $TENX an official “pitch”, but I don’t think I can get there on the risk/reward skew to say that this is “one of the best setups I’ve ever seen” like I try to do for “official” pitches.
Still, it’s been an obscure name, and IMO very clearly has a heavily underappreciated 2026 catalyst that many people don't know about, so I think it's worth talking about. I am long currently and there’s a decent chance that I’ll be exposed to the binary - at least I think that I’ll be exposed to the readout if the stock stays at these prices going into the data.
So, I won’t pitch it with a comprehensive thread like $NKTR & $ABVX, and I won’t share my full large diligence document like I did for those. But, I hope the brief (by my standards) discussion here could lead to some solid sharing of thoughts with the “biotwitter” community. Frankly, I'm not even sure the best way to "play" this one, so some feedback and collective diligence here could be useful.
I actually considered making $TENX an official “pitch”, but I don’t think I can get there on the risk/reward skew to say that this is “one of the best setups I’ve ever seen” like I try to do for “official” pitches.
Still, it’s been an obscure name, and IMO very clearly has a heavily underappreciated 2026 catalyst that many people don't know about, so I think it's worth talking about. I am long currently and there’s a decent chance that I’ll be exposed to the binary - at least I think that I’ll be exposed to the readout if the stock stays at these prices going into the data.
So, I won’t pitch it with a comprehensive thread like $NKTR & $ABVX, and I won’t share my full large diligence document like I did for those. But, I hope the brief (by my standards) discussion here could lead to some solid sharing of thoughts with the “biotwitter” community. Frankly, I'm not even sure the best way to "play" this one, so some feedback and collective diligence here could be useful.
Everyone’s favorite part of the thread → Disclaimers!
First one is important - Don’t be fooled by your brokerage account telling you this has some tiny microcap valuation. There are lots of warrants outstanding from the company’s history, making the fully diluted share count more like ~65M (by my calculations).
Second, much like $ABVX, the downside on a total fail by $TENX is huge. Like 90%. I’d also say that, for $ABVX, I eventually arrived at such high confidence that they were going to hit that I’d almost have called that a "guarantee" (although nothing in biotech ever actually is). For TENX, the *massive* +500-1000% upside scenarios are certainly on the table like they were for $ABVX, but the odds of that happening versus the ~90% downside crash are certainly nowhere near as positively skewed for $TENX. THE BINARY HERE IS GOING TO BE RISKY.
First one is important - Don’t be fooled by your brokerage account telling you this has some tiny microcap valuation. There are lots of warrants outstanding from the company’s history, making the fully diluted share count more like ~65M (by my calculations).
Second, much like $ABVX, the downside on a total fail by $TENX is huge. Like 90%. I’d also say that, for $ABVX, I eventually arrived at such high confidence that they were going to hit that I’d almost have called that a "guarantee" (although nothing in biotech ever actually is). For TENX, the *massive* +500-1000% upside scenarios are certainly on the table like they were for $ABVX, but the odds of that happening versus the ~90% downside crash are certainly nowhere near as positively skewed for $TENX. THE BINARY HERE IS GOING TO BE RISKY.
The Disease:
$TENX aims to treat PH-HFpEF (i.e. patients who have pulmonary hypertension as a result of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction). This is a very sick, and very large patient population for which there are zero FDA approved treatments.
Basically, the issue is that the patient’s heart has become stiff and is unable to fill up with blood appropriately. This is HFpEF (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction).
But, over time, the HFpEF worsens to the extent that excess blood backs up behind the stiff heart and starts filling up the vessels in the lungs. Over time these vessels also become stiff and thickened thanks to this backpressure from the heart. *That* is the PH (pulmonary hypertension) of PH-HFpEF.
The US TAM for this condition is absolutely huge…~1.4M patients. No approved drugs.
Other companies like $TECX and recently $MRK have been going after a smaller segment of the PH-HFpEF population. I won’t go into the (deep) nitty gritty on the differences, but roughly, the 1.4M patient US PH-HFpEF TAM is comprised of
~0.4M CpCPH patients
~1.0M IpcPH patients
Recently, better known trials like those from $TECX and $MRK have focussed on the smaller 0.4M CpcPH sliver of the market.
$TENX, on the other hand, is studying their drug in the entire PH-HFpEF population. Well over 1.4 million patients in the US alone, with extremely high unmet need.
$TENX aims to treat PH-HFpEF (i.e. patients who have pulmonary hypertension as a result of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction). This is a very sick, and very large patient population for which there are zero FDA approved treatments.
Basically, the issue is that the patient’s heart has become stiff and is unable to fill up with blood appropriately. This is HFpEF (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction).
But, over time, the HFpEF worsens to the extent that excess blood backs up behind the stiff heart and starts filling up the vessels in the lungs. Over time these vessels also become stiff and thickened thanks to this backpressure from the heart. *That* is the PH (pulmonary hypertension) of PH-HFpEF.
The US TAM for this condition is absolutely huge…~1.4M patients. No approved drugs.
Other companies like $TECX and recently $MRK have been going after a smaller segment of the PH-HFpEF population. I won’t go into the (deep) nitty gritty on the differences, but roughly, the 1.4M patient US PH-HFpEF TAM is comprised of
~0.4M CpCPH patients
~1.0M IpcPH patients
Recently, better known trials like those from $TECX and $MRK have focussed on the smaller 0.4M CpcPH sliver of the market.
$TENX, on the other hand, is studying their drug in the entire PH-HFpEF population. Well over 1.4 million patients in the US alone, with extremely high unmet need.
California’s 214 billionaires are panicking over a ballot proposal that hasn’t passed yet.
This November, California will vote on a one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth.
Billionaires are up in arms, as is Gavin Newsom—who says he’ll “do what I have to do to protect the state.”
This November, California will vote on a one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth.
Billionaires are up in arms, as is Gavin Newsom—who says he’ll “do what I have to do to protect the state.”
The Billionaire Tax Act responds to Trump’s OBBB, which strains California’s critical infrastructure by cutting around $100B in federal funds.
The goal? To keep California’s health care and education systems from collapsing amid skyrocketing costs and employee burnout.
The goal? To keep California’s health care and education systems from collapsing amid skyrocketing costs and employee burnout.
The proposal vows to protect access to quality, equitable health care while supporting K-14 public education and food assistance programs through a one-time, 5% wealth tax.
A billionaire tax could “stop the health care collapse,” currently facing California’s working class.
oag.ca.gov/system/files/i…
A billionaire tax could “stop the health care collapse,” currently facing California’s working class.
oag.ca.gov/system/files/i…
Russia continues to scale up the production and innovation of inexpensive strike drones that have succeeded in generating favorable battlefield effects for Russian forces. ⬇️🧵(1/3)
Russia has been expanding and scaling drone production and adaptation to support its ongoing efforts to generate battlefield air interdiction (BAI) effects across the frontline. Russia’s BAI campaign involves strikes against important logistics targets in the Ukrainian near- and operational-rear, including roads, railways, and bridges, to facilitate subsequent Russian offensive operations in the weeks and months that follow by degrading Ukraine’s ability to sustain its frontline forces.
Russian technological adaptations have facilitated recent Russian advances, and Russia will likely continue to focus on scaling the production of inexpensive drones that have proven effective in the current battlespace.
Russia has been expanding and scaling drone production and adaptation to support its ongoing efforts to generate battlefield air interdiction (BAI) effects across the frontline. Russia’s BAI campaign involves strikes against important logistics targets in the Ukrainian near- and operational-rear, including roads, railways, and bridges, to facilitate subsequent Russian offensive operations in the weeks and months that follow by degrading Ukraine’s ability to sustain its frontline forces.
Russian technological adaptations have facilitated recent Russian advances, and Russia will likely continue to focus on scaling the production of inexpensive drones that have proven effective in the current battlespace.
2/ Russian forces are struggling with other technological aspects of the battlespace, however, including the effectiveness of some guided artillery munitions.
3/ Western sanctions on aircraft components will likely continue to constrain Russia’s ability to produce military aircraft.
ISW has previously assessed that Russia may deprioritize the aircraft industry to prioritize other areas of the Russian defense production, such as drones and weapons needed on the battlefield in Ukraine. If Russia does prioritize other sectors of defense production, its ability to fulfill VKS production and replenishment will likely be greatly hindered.
ISW has previously assessed that Russia may deprioritize the aircraft industry to prioritize other areas of the Russian defense production, such as drones and weapons needed on the battlefield in Ukraine. If Russia does prioritize other sectors of defense production, its ability to fulfill VKS production and replenishment will likely be greatly hindered.
"I am The Post's Federal government whisperer. It's been brutal." said Hannah Natanson.
Not anymore, you're not!
archive.ph/kC63y x.com/julie_kelly2/s…
Not anymore, you're not!
archive.ph/kC63y x.com/julie_kelly2/s…
Hannah Natanson advertises Signal on her LinkedIn.
She has been with The Washington Post since June 2019. Former Fellowships For the Study of Professional Ethics (welp), Harvard Crimson and the National Institutes of Health.
She has been with The Washington Post since June 2019. Former Fellowships For the Study of Professional Ethics (welp), Harvard Crimson and the National Institutes of Health.
Hannah Natanson posted on Reddit's fednews Subreddit on December 24, 2025.
She says she got 1,160 Federal sources just for posting on the fednews subreddit.
Oh dear. I wouldn't have advertised that.
archive.ph/jNSHV
She says she got 1,160 Federal sources just for posting on the fednews subreddit.
Oh dear. I wouldn't have advertised that.
archive.ph/jNSHV
