Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #hzm

Most recents (9)

Been focused on other things for a few days but a few thoughts on shares I hold, given the perceived turmoil.

Main focuses for me for a while now, has been shares exposed to Covid, battery metals (incl. energy storage) and gold.

The events of the last few days if anything strengthen that stance.

In terms of Covid (and I tread carefully because both my stocks have other things in their locker), its a waiting game on both.

I think 1 strong update from #GDR and it moves much higher from here.
In terms of #AVCT, an update, one way or the other is pending, whereby the exact progress of BAMS/LFT tests, should be made clearer.

I see no reason for concern and the lockdown measures announced today in the UK, only go to strengthen that argument. Nothing has changed.
Read 13 tweets
Nickel steadily pushing up to $15k.

With a current EV of <£60m, #HZM really is a sitting duck.

I think the issue is that some expect a large PLC-level placing to fund the equity component of Araguaia.

However, Teck, Glencore and Orion (existing stakeholders) are more... 1/3
...than capable of investing at project level (something that many conventional insti. investors cannot do).

I hope this is mgmt's plan: not only could a much higher pre-new money valuation be achieved, but existing shareholders' share in Vermelho would also remain intact. 2/3
The fact that the arranging of the financing package is taking some time (to complete by year end) is suggestive that project level equity investment is indeed the plan: were #HZM intending to raise at PLC level, it wouldn't take 5 months to arrange!

Excited to be holding.

Read 3 tweets
A thread from last October when I previously began buying #HZM.

For Araguaia, I think the securing of the debt facility for $325m / ~73% of upfront capex pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 20% of post-tax NPV of DFS.

Assuming Ni of $15k/t, that's $104.4m. 1/5
= £79.3m, or 5.49p/s.

For Vermelho, the increasing interest in tier 1 nickel-cobalt projects for supplying the exponentially growing EV market (e.g. @elonmusk) also pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 7% of post-tax NPV of PFS.

Ni at $15k/t = $101.8m / £77.4m

That equates to 5.35p/s.

Finally, net cash of £15m = 1.04p/s.

My current fair value for #HZM: £171.7m, or 11.9p/s.

Of course, I'm in agreement with the vast majority of industry commentators that Ni is set for a huge rally over the coming years.

I see it at $18k next year 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Have added to my #HZM position this morning.

Whilst the whole finance package still needs to get over the line, for me the signals are that a clear path has been set as to how the company gets there.

So i expect no further significant problems with this.
We're talking 73% debt finance package for a project in Brazil, during Covid, where finance risks run higher.

Plus success in bringing Araguaia on line, could help de-risk Vermelho, which is an eventual beast of project.
Its certainly a long term hold but I am more than happy to wait because the greatest barrier to a billion pound plus valuation, has for me, now been removed.

Now its a case of bringing the final parts together, executing and then simply waiting it out.
Read 3 tweets
Once the #COVID19 crisis is over, I think colossal sums of retail money (particularly from Millennials) will flood back into companies striving to repair the natural word. 4 key issues are:

i) Global warming (and pollution)
ii) Deforestation
iii) Animal welfare
iv) Plastics

Here are just some of the industries focussing on addressing these issues:

i) Alternative energy generation, energy storage, EVs, green metals mining

ii) Vertical farming and other agri-tech

iii) plant-based meat, cultured meat

iv) waste-to-energy; plastics alternatives

Companies in these industries are already attracting mind-blowing valuations (standout example: v. ICE manufacturers).

Yet I feel these industries will attract even more dizzying valuations throughout this decade.

Long-term investing in these sectors is vital, IMO.

Read 5 tweets
Morning all - a few days off from the markets post GE, for a trip to Clermont to watch @bathrugby (lose with dignity 🙄).

Great to see #RRE slowly recover. Said it before, but - a $1.2bn offer was made. Completion of that deal would have seen the SP up by 250% minimum, IMO.
#MKA also beginning to climb back up. The Talaxis / Chinalco MoU is massive: Chinalco is one of China's six SEOs that hold a near-monopoly over the global REE market.

Its partnership with Talaxis is, for me, evidence that it's acutely aware of the Pentagon's interest in Songwe.
#HZM is also recovering, in line with Ni bouncing. Expecting a busy Q1 there, with major newsflow generated by both projects. Current EV (~£27m) is simply wrong. If it doesn't change soon, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest a takeover - Orion being an obvious candidate.
Read 9 tweets
Some excellent moves in the PF this week:

ST trades in each of #TRX and #XSG reduced, as they had increased so quickly (~150% and 66% respectively). Balances of positions to be held until ~2p for each stock, but will revise accordingly, keeping a close eye on momentum. 1/12
Two new modest ST trades opened yesterday PM, 200k shares in each: #CIR and #C4XD (both ~17.5p av. entry). Primarily capitalising on community's (and my) recent success in trading up Woodford/Invesco calamities (TRX and XSG!). Both now enjoy solid fundamentals - valuations...2/12
...much more attractive now, with both #CIR and #C4XD SPs having been decimated this year. Moreover, they now enjoy the backing of retail. Fundamentals combined with sentiment = crucial.

ST trade (but happy to hold as a LT investment) opened in #DKL too. Very cheap CPO biz..3/12
Read 12 tweets
#EUA cooling off period was due, although it's not nice seeing negative commentary, some driven by shorting, some by enmity. For the former - there are ways of shorting without being aggressive - @Smudgedann @Blowster85 proved this. For the latter - celebrate, it's great for AIM!
Onto #EUA: both interviews have been terrific. The interviewees could not have been more clear that Monch at the very least will be acquired in the near term.

- Pd has in the past 24 hours hit another ATH. Demand from auto industry is rocketing and supply pipeline is negligible.
- #EUA is the only viable UK listed Co left that offers direct exposure to Pd. A lot of cross ramping flying about on Twitter and BBs about other PGM players. I don't want direct exposure to primarily Pt plays - the market dynamics aren't appealing. Pd, however...
Read 10 tweets
Taken 1m shares in #HZM over past 3 days, av. 3.96p – £57.3m mkt cap. Current net cash position of ~£29m, 50% of cap.

Two 100% owned Nickel pre-production assets in Brazil:

Araguaia - construction ready, sourcing development capex.

Vermelho - PFS just completed, DFS next.
#HZM Araguaia: at $16.4k Ni, project has a post tax NPV of $1.2bn, v development capex of $443m. 2.7x is a very heathy ratio – IRR comes in at 30.7%.

Co has secured a 2.25% royalty deal with mining financier, Orion, for $25m cash. Orion will likely provide further devel. capex.
#HZM Vermelho: at $16.4k Ni, project has a post tax NPV of $1.7bn, v development capex of $652m. Again, very healthy. IRR of 26.3%.

Whilst Araguaia is a FeNi deposit, Vermelho is NiCo – i.e. geared towards providing for a major macro trend, the electric vehicle revolution.
Read 8 tweets

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