China’s #exports and #imports in the first quarter respectively went down by 11.4% and 0.7% year-on-year. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6qZ797KVEtV1…
After the second quarter, the growing epidemic worldwide is projected to further weigh on China’s exports and imports, which will bring a second wave of impact on its economy.
There have been studies predicting that the imports and exports of China in 2020 may witness a decline of 15% -20%, with a larger decline in trade in service.
Some researchers believed that considering the relatively low share of net exports in GDP, negative growth other than significant ones in net exports would have limited influence on the domestic growth.
The view makes sense in the context of conventional growing pattern.
Excessive decline in exports in a short time, however, may result in massive shutdown of export-oriented enterprises, directly hitting domestic #consumption, #investment and #employment.
It could be seen from the input-output analysis that one-percentage-point drop in exports would shrink the #GDP by about 0.2 percentage points.
The latest information indicates that orders received by foreign #trade enterprises have already started to plummet.
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