#Pakistan is going thru a complex #macro situation. At its heart is one symptom: the #CAD. Because the CAD has been perennial, this long-standing symptom translated into large foreign liabilities. Short 🧵👇

a) The #CAD shows that #Pakistan has been consuming beyond what it produces. At its heart, there’s another perennial deficit: the fiscal deficit.

b) To fix the #CAD, compressing #imports is futile (e.g. with the flood levy). You need either to reduce the fiscal deficit, or increase private saving well beyond investment. 👇

Read 10 tweets

ithought

@ithoughtadviser

A confluence of unprecedented events in 2022 weakened asset prices across all markets. (1/n)

#assetallocation #investing #personalfinance #throwback #thread

The Fed’s pivot to a less aggressive monetary policy is likely to set the tone for the markets in 2023. (2/n)

#FED #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy

It is expected that global inflation will continue to be higher in this decade, in combination with a significant slowdown of the U.S. economy. (3/n)

#inflation #interestrates #globalmarket

Read 13 tweets

Graviola Finland

@GraviolaDOTfi

https://twitter.com/GraviolaDOTfi/status/1610350330545332225

#Siionisti'en bravuuri on junailla #goyim'en tuhoa niiden omalla kustannuksella.
#WEF -ideologia lahtaa yritykset ...kaasulla.
#Gasgrid Imatra #Räikkölä vs. #Korsakov.
- Korsakov on #LNG -satamakaupunki #Venäjä'n
#Sahalin'in alueella.
fi.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korsakov_…

https://twitter.com/GraviolaDOTfi/status/1610350330545332225

‘#India buying #Russian #crude oil is good economics, don’t bring #politics into it’ | Jan 12
- India is among the world's top crude oil importers. The Asian nation has been largely purchasing Russian oil
firstpost.com/world/india-bu…

#EUSanctions #Hoax #EnergyWar
#India’s breaking all records for buying #Russian #oil, but who is the surprise buyer? | Jan 15
- The #US Is Snapping Up Refined #PetroleumProducts From India Made From #RussianCrude Oil
telegraphindia.com/business/india…

Read 8 tweets

Luis Torras

@TorrasLuis

Long term charts vía DB. 2022 first global beat market in 70 years. Rollomt 10yr real government bond return for the US, UK, FR & DE. This year has turned negative for all of these countries for the first time since 1984, 1983, 1983, and 1958, respectively. #bonds #history

LT (over last 100 yrs) US returns:

– equities: +7.2% p.a. real) ****
– 10yr bonds/ +2.0% p.a.
– Corporate bonds: +2.7% p.a.
– T-bills (cash proxy): +0.4% p.a.

– gold: +1.6% p.a.
– oil: +0.5% p.a.
– US housing (prices only): +1.1% p.a.

#financial #markets #history

#Equity #markets: Since 1800, US equities have had only two negative decades in nominal terms: the 1930s (-0.5% p.a.) and the 2000s (-0.9%). There have been three negative decades in real terms (1910s: -2.8%, 1970s: -1.5%, 2000s: -3.4%). DB #history

Read 17 tweets

Investify Pakistan

@investifypk

Pakistan's exports to the Middle East declined by 5.57% YoY to $951.78m in the first five months of FY23, with the majority of this decline attributed to a drop in exports to the UAE.

Despite some growth in exports to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, overall exports to the region were mixed. The UAE is the largest market for Pakistani exports, accounting for 65% of the region's total exports.

Major exports to the UAE include rice, bovine carcasses, and cotton ensembles. Meanwhile, exports to Saudi Arabia have remained stagnant at around $500m over the past decade, with top exports including rice, bovine carcasses, and tents.

Read 5 tweets

CN Wire

@Sino_Market

⚡China's Jan-Nov surplus (in USD terms) $802.04 billion
#Imports +2.0% y/y
#Exports +9.1% y/y
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

#China's Jan-Nov surplus (in yuan terms) 5.34 trillion yuan
#Imports +4.6% y/y
#Exports +11.9% y/y
2/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

China November trade balance(in yuan term) 494.33 bln yuan; Est. 486.0bln, Prev. 586.8bln;
#Imports -1.1 y/y ; Est. +7.1%, Prev.+6.8%;
#Exports +0.9% y/y ; Est. +8.2%, Prev.+7.0%.
3/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

Read 7 tweets

H.E. Lady M.J. Santos 念真青山

@mj_santos

Since #WWII, #USA has used #USdollar hegemony to transfer domestic crises, harvest world #wealth and undermine the economic and financial stability of other countries through armed conflicts, financial wars, and trade wars. To maintain US dollar is to maintain US world hegemony.

Since March 2022, #FederalReserve has raised interest rates 6X. On 2 Nov, its 75-point rate hike and sharp #USdollar appreciation caused global #currency depreciation, capital outflows, rising debt servicing costs, hiked imported inflation and currency/debt crises of countries.

How this #KhazarianMafia #SCAM all started: At the latter part of #WWII, #USA took the opportunity to hoard tons of #gold and led the establishment of Bretton Woods system based on a peg between #USdollar and gold, thus establishing US dollar as "global hard #currency".

Read 32 tweets

CN Wire

@Sino_Market

⚡
China October trade balance(in USD term) $85.15bln; Est. $95.97bln, Prev. $84.75 bln;
#Imports -0.7% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports -0.3% y/y ; Est. +4.5%, Prev.+5.7%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

#China October Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +586.81 bln yuan; Prev.+573.57 bln yuan;
Imports +6.8% y/y, Est.+10.0%, Prev.+5.2%.
Exports +7.0% y/y, Est.+12.7%, Prev.+10.7%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳

3/ #China's Jan-October #trade with
ASEAN +15.8% y/y to 5.26 trillion yuan
🇪🇺EU +8.1% y/y to 4.68 trillion yuan
🇺🇸US +6.8% y/y to 4.21 trillion yuan
🇰🇷Korea +6.5% y/y to 2.02 trillion yuan
#trade

Read 5 tweets

Gonzalo Varela

@gonwei

We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:

#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan

By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan

Read 11 tweets

CN Wire

@Sino_Market

China September trade balance(in USD term) $84.75bln; Est. $80.3 bln, Prev. $79.39 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports +5.7% y/y ; Est. +4.0%, Prev.+7.1%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

#China September Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +573.57 bln yuan; Est.+564.30 bln yuan, Prev.+535.91 bln yuan;
Imports +5.2% y/y, Est.+8.4%, Prev.+4.6%.
Exports +10.7% y/y, Est.+11.3%, Prev.+11.8%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳

CHINA JAN.-SEPT. IMPORTS RISE 4.1% Y/Y, EXPORTS +12.5%.
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳

Read 6 tweets

Nikhil Kamath

@nikhilkamathcio

In #India, #imports continue to rise faster than #exports, and the foreign exchange reserves have dropped from around $641 billion to $532 billion in the last 12 months.

A country accumulates foreign exchange reserves when its revenue generated from exports is greater than the expenditure incurred from imports. Crude, other mineral fuels and waxes constitute 27% of our total imports.

@Investywise

And China is our biggest import destination, whereas the USA is the country we export the most.

Can India turn the trend of falling #reserves?

Research : @Investywise

Read 3 tweets

CN Wire

@Sino_Market

JUST IN:
China August trade balance(in USD term) $79.39 bln; Est. $92.40 bln, Prev. $101.26 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +1.20%, Prev.+2.3%;
#Exports +7.1% y/y ; Est. +13.0%, Prev.+18.0%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

JUST IN:
#China August Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +535.91 bln yuan, Prev.+682.69 bln yuan.
Imports +4.6% y/y, Est. +6.3%, Prev.+7.4%.
Exports +11.8% y/y, Est. +18.5%, Prev.+23.9%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳

CHINA JAN.-AUG.IMPORTS RISE 5.2% Y/Y, EXPORTS +14.2%, TRADE SURPLUS 3.66 TRILLION YUAN.-CUSTOMS
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳

Read 6 tweets

Gonzalo Varela

@gonwei

@StateBank_Pak

Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.

This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵

1\ #Exports reached record highs, both #goods and #services, increasing by 26.6 and 17.1% respectively w.r.t. FY21. Good export prices and a decent #export response played a role here.

2\ #Pakistan #export growth was generalized by main destination. Particularly noticeable are increases in shipments to #USA and to #China - the two largest destinations.

Read 10 tweets

scripbox

@scripbox

It’s Wednesday, which means it’s time to take stock of the week so far, draw on reserves, and soldier on (and uncover some facts while at it). Today, we dissect the RBI’s recent move to allow & encourage #foreigntrade payments to be made in INR. (1/8)

It’s a long-term plus for the Indian #economy and good news for the long-term investor. So, grab that coffee from the break room, and let’s delve into the long and short of it. (2/8)

The #RBI recently issued a circular that detailed an ‘additional arrangement’ for invoicing, payment, and settlement of #exports and #imports using the Indian #rupee as currency. (3/8)

Read 8 tweets

Maks Fasteyev🇺🇦

@MaksDairyInfa

#Ukraine #Dairy #export during the #war 🧵1/ The war has made especially big impact on dairy exports. The developed logistics supply chains to traditional markets of the post-Soviet countries were broken. It is now impossible to load goods through our seaports.

#Ukraine 2/ Generally, importers are cautious about any procurement dealt with a country at #war. As a result, despite the promising world market conditions, domestic producers have had to drastically reduce dairy #exports, while often selling products well below world prices.

3/ #Ukraine #dairy producers are losing the markets of Central Asia and the Caucasus because of the #war. Extremely problematic are exports by sea to the countries of SE+N Asia and MENA, where previously large quantities of milk powder, whey, and in some yrs, butter were shipped.

Read 5 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit

3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up

4. Internal Credit
5. #PrivateSector - #Creditofftake goes up interest rates rise
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit goes up interest rates rise

Read 4 tweets

Gonzalo Varela

@gonwei

A month ago I wrote this 🧵 on why #import duties were not the answer to #Pakistan's Balance of Payments constraints. #ImportBans are certainly not the answer either. Rather, they exacerbate the underlying problem. Five thoughts. 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/gonwei/status/1516274444997730306?s=20&t=Za89qP00QHuGOQKJTaB5uA

1\ The usual: CAD results from a macro imbalance (Saving too low relative to investment, so foreign saving needed (borrowing) (CAD is the mirror image of borrowing from the rest of the world (financial account of BOP)). Fixing the CAD takes increasing saving (cool off demand).

2\ The #importban in #Pakistan reduces #imports (does it? see point 3\ below), but not the CAD, because it also reduces #exports.
profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/01/imp…

Read 8 tweets

Moneycontrol

@moneycontrolcom

@aparnaviyer02

#MCProOpinion: Banks’ results for the March quarter have been excellent, but operating profit growth has hit a soft patch. What can boost their profits in FY23? 🤔

Find out ⏬
moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/i…

by @aparnaviyer02 | #Economy #Bank

#MCProOpinion: The Rupee can weaken further in the near term, but there is something that can save the day over the medium term.

Read at:
moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/r…

#Rupee #Inflation

@SaibalDasgupta

#MCProOpinion: The impact on the global economy due to China’s zero-COVID policy is just a preview of the disruptions ahead. And that will happen once the economic slowdown in China starts to bite.

Read at: moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/t…

by @SaibalDasgupta | #China #Economy #Lockdown

Read 5 tweets

MiRev

@FilandroMi

https://twitter.com/FilandroMi/status/1523852463182204928

Citing the previous tweet

https://twitter.com/FilandroMi/status/1523852463182204928

and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇

@Reuters

A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰
reuters.com/world/europe/u…

#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).
igc.int/en/downloads/2…

Read 18 tweets

Gonzalo Varela

@gonwei

https://twitter.com/YousufNazar/status/1523253234881613826

Thank you for the feedback, dear Yousuf. If you read the article carefully, you will see this is specific & data driven. A short thread to explain. 👇👇👇

https://twitter.com/YousufNazar/status/1523253234881613826

Figure 2 in the article is built from a careful analysis combining micro-level *data* from all listed firms in Pakistan, & effective rates of protection (calculated based on FBR data on import duties and the latest input output *data* from IFPRI. It conveys the key message. 👇

@StefaniaLovo

Figure 3 comes from a careful econometric analysis we did w/@StefaniaLovo in which we recover markups from the data, and estimated systematic effects of changes in #import duties on these markups. It conveys the key message. 👇

Read 6 tweets

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