Thread by @DearPandemic

1/ Q: What is “Superspreading”? How can we avoid it?

A: Yes, superspreading is as yucky as it sounds, and seems to have played an important role in early #COVID19 spread.

To avoid, stick to the Nerdy Girl stay SMART principles (Space, Mask, Air, Restrict, Time)!

2/ This article gives an excellent overview of the superspreading clusters that have been identified and what we know about the science: scientificamerican.com/article/how-ld…

Some highlights:

3/ Models based on #ContactTracing data estimate that 10 - 20% of infected people may be responsible for 80% of #SARSCoV2 spread.

BUT Keep in mind that superspreading events may be OVER-REPRESENTED in the data since they are easier to identify than casual individual encounters

4/ The virus spreads primarily via respiratory droplets produced by an infected individual during breathing, talking, coughing and sneezing.

One thing that makes #COVID19 super sly is that people are infectious *prior* to having symptoms.

5/ What is the recipe for a superspreading event?

🚪Closed, poorly ventilated space: Most #COVID clusters were in indoor settings.

🍾 Large numbers of people: It's difficult to “superspread’ to a small group. Larger groups increase the chance that someone is infectious.

6/
⏱️Time: The longer the contact, the greater the likelihood of spread. More than 10-15 minutes seems to be an important threshold.

🎤 Droplet spewing: We’ve learned that things that project droplets, such as loud speech, cheering, heavy breathing & singing are more risky

7/
📢 Speech “superemitters’: Less hard evidence on this, but some people may naturally emit more respiratory particles during speech.

Looking ahead, things like cheering fans in sports stadiums and concerts will likely still be too risky for awhile (sigh...)

8/ But the GOOD NEWS is that these estimates suggest that stopping #superspreading events can go A LONG WAY towards putting out the fire of #COVID__19 transmission. This gives us the best chance to resume many normal interactions in a safe way.

9/ We’ve done a good job limiting large gatherings the last few months, but as things continue to re-open remember to #staySMART and don’t give the #virus the super-spreading chance it’s waiting for!