Thread by @quito_maggi

I want to provide some thoughts on the @CPC_HQ leadership of @ErinOTooleMP might mean for #cdnpoli but first a few disclaimers and background

#CPCLeadership

Let me start by saying congratulations to @ErinOTooleMP for the win, and to his team who worked hard under difficult circumstances

#cdnpoli #cpcldr

I’ve known Erin for more than 10 years and always had respect for his service and dedication to his family and community, despite ideological divides

#cdnpoli

In the 2012 by-election when @ErinOTooleMP was first elected, I was given the difficult task of running the @liberal_party campaign in the Durham riding where he was running

When I took the first snapshot, we sat at 12% in the poll, a distant third place

#cdnpoli

That campaign was challenging to say the least, I won’t get in to the details but things got very heated

We managed to finish at 18%

#cdnpoli

I don’t believe that the @CPC_HQ will be able to make any gains under the leadership of @ErinOTooleMP for a number of reasons

First and perhaps most obvious is the hard right, social Conservative turn made by O’Toole during this race compared to #cpcldr 2017

#cdnpoli

The choice made by members of @CPC_HQ seems to be a continuation of the @AndrewScheer leadership and the same social Conservative albatross remains

While the general population might consist of 10% or less of that demographic, it’s as high as 40% of the membership

#cdnpoli

Among the general population or even @CPC_HQ voters at large, those social views simply don’t resonate, at least not in the right places to matter for #elxn44

#cdnpoli

Less obvious perhaps would be the impact of a @ErinOTooleMP leadership in the Prairies and Alberta where Scheer was able to maximize Conservative vote in #elxn43

Repeating that effort by an Ontario MP in Alberta will be difficult, and not gain a single seat in the process

In Atlantic Canada, where the native son @PeterMacKay might have had a chance for further gains in #elxn44, the overwhelming @liberal_party advantage will remain if not grow

#cdnpoli

And lastly I would add that the 905 belt around Toronto might not be as fruitful for O’Toole as some believe, it is not a homogenous population

The riding of Durham is quite different from the rest of the 905, it’s more a rural riding than a suburban one

#cdnpoli

I would expect to see very little change in the polls in the weeks ahead as a result of the new @CPC_HQ leader

If there is a fall election , and let me be clear that I now firmly believe there will be, I would expect a substantial LPC majority despite recent events

#cdnpoli