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#GenX business owner, founder & President of @MainStResearch & @MainStUSAPolls, Chairman @politicalintel . I don’t play defense. #onpoli #cdnpoli
Mar 24, 2023 11 tweets 5 min read
I’ve been asked by a few people why I believe the latest allegation story from Global is “unravelling” today

First, there’s the G&M story from today which confirms the CSIS sources did NOT provide media with audio or transcripts

#cdnpoli That’s important because the story also says PMO was provided with the transcript & concluded “no action was necessary”

So one of two things is possible,

1) PMO read the transcript and it confirmed the allegation cited in the Global story

#cdnpoli
Mar 24, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
A lot of chatter about this article today from the G& M.

Apologies for sharing a paywalled story, I am a subscriber and likewise to many other outlets.

Confirmation bias is a funny thing…

#cdnpoli

theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic… People who believe Dong did what was alleged are pointing to this as further evidence, certainly the title makes it appear so

Others will point to this story as the opposite, certainly the facts that no transcript or audio was provided to media is hard to explain.

#cdnpoli
Feb 10, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
I’m back in #Ottawa after more than a week & while I’m still giving far fewer f*cks than normal, I can’t ignore what’s going on forever

1/ I’ve never seen so much ink spilled (digital or otherwise) over a fabricated crisis that stemmed from fabricated differences among Canadians Let’s recall that this #TruckersConvoy started because there were reports of empty shelves caused by #vaccinemandates at the border

That was clearly a deliberate fabrication, border wait times remained normal across Canada during that time

#cdnpoli
Sep 9, 2021 6 tweets 4 min read
Let me get my early take on the first #Elxn44 official debate, in order of performance

@theJagmeetSingh did not deliver on the promise of the TVA debate, his performance was too safe, he went back to talking points instead of the honest conversational style I expected Next up @AnnamiePaul , I thought this was an opportunity for her to make gains, she squandered it by failing to even acknowledge the divides on foreign policy that plague her party, that was disingenuous #Elxn44
Sep 8, 2021 5 tweets 4 min read
Based on what I’m seeing in early numbers tonight, the @peoplespca is definitely starting to narrow any path @erinotoole has to becoming PM in #elxn44 To be clear, the debate commission had no way of knowing that the @CPC_HQ policies would alienate so many right leaning voters, but today, it’s hard for me to understand why @MaximeBernier isn’t on stage for this #elxn44 debate
Sep 8, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
Your #Elxn44 forecast for today, please enjoy the first of two leaders debates tonight The National landscape appears to be shifting again just ahead of the #Elxn44 debates

The @NDP is now second among female voters for the first time in our daily tracking, they have also expanded their lead among young voters under 35
Sep 6, 2021 6 tweets 5 min read
And here’s the #Elxn44 forecast for today, no change

Those of you who’ve been paying attention know that its highly unusual for a weekend sample to have no impact What does it mean?

Either 1) we’re finally seeing an end to volatility in the electorate 2) this points to a new pattern on weekend vs weekday or 3) Liberals have gained relatively and we’ll see a return to parity by mid-week

#Elxn44
Aug 25, 2020 12 tweets 8 min read
I want to provide some thoughts on the @CPC_HQ leadership of @ErinOTooleMP might mean for #cdnpoli but first a few disclaimers and background

#CPCLeadership Let me start by saying congratulations to @ErinOTooleMP for the win, and to his team who worked hard under difficult circumstances

#cdnpoli #cpcldr
Feb 22, 2020 12 tweets 8 min read
Bear with me for an #olpldr thread

Yesterday, I saw something on the #olpldr stream that really solidified for me the problem with a lot of the negativity we’ve seen and heard of late I don’t want to amplify the message by referencing it, but someone indirectly attacked one of the candidates for something that is beyond their control, their gender #olpldr #onpoli
Dec 18, 2019 5 tweets 4 min read
These early #cpcldr polls of the general population do tell us a bit about what candidates might be viable and which are unlikely to compete, but I need to make a point about the “winability” measure that most are attempting to measure

#cdnpoli nationalpost.com/news/politics/… Like the #elxn43 polls, I need to point out the importance of “where” instead of “how much”

An overwhelming approval or favourability in AB,BC &/or SK could make it appear one candidate has an advantage, while trailing among the remaining 2/3rds of the ridings in #cpcldr
Oct 17, 2019 7 tweets 15 min read
ICYMI: The lastest @MainStResearch numbers for @ipoliticsca shows the @liberal_party with a slight lead for the first time in weeks, the @CPC_HQ down and the @NDP over 18%

ipolitics.ca/2019/10/17/mai…

#elxn43 #cdnpoli @MainStResearch @ipoliticsca @liberal_party @CPC_HQ @NDP And of course, my updated seat count as follows.

@liberal_party - 168
@CPC_HQ - 102
@BlocQuebecois - 37
@ndp - 28
@CanadianGreens - 3
Mar 29, 2019 12 tweets 5 min read
Here’s my take on the recording, I haven’t had a chance to read all the submissions yet

The recording of this call is both worse & better than the testimony told us, Wernick was frustrated at times but professional, JWR seemed stressed at first, a bit scripted later

#cdnpoli I can’t say JWR was guilty of anything other than impatience with her colleagues, that itself leads to her shuffle

The release of this recording, it’s very existence, means her political & legal career are both likely over

#cdnpoli