In the 2012 by-election when @ErinOTooleMP was first elected, I was given the difficult task of running the @liberal_party campaign in the Durham riding where he was running
When I took the first snapshot, we sat at 12% in the poll, a distant third place
Among the general population or even @CPC_HQ voters at large, those social views simply don’t resonate, at least not in the right places to matter for #elxn44
Less obvious perhaps would be the impact of a @ErinOTooleMP leadership in the Prairies and Alberta where Scheer was able to maximize Conservative vote in #elxn43
Repeating that effort by an Ontario MP in Alberta will be difficult, and not gain a single seat in the process
In Atlantic Canada, where the native son @PeterMacKay might have had a chance for further gains in #elxn44, the overwhelming @liberal_party advantage will remain if not grow
I would expect to see very little change in the polls in the weeks ahead as a result of the new @CPC_HQ leader
If there is a fall election , and let me be clear that I now firmly believe there will be, I would expect a substantial LPC majority despite recent events
Let me get my early take on the first #Elxn44 official debate, in order of performance
@theJagmeetSingh did not deliver on the promise of the TVA debate, his performance was too safe, he went back to talking points instead of the honest conversational style I expected
Next up @AnnamiePaul , I thought this was an opportunity for her to make gains, she squandered it by failing to even acknowledge the divides on foreign policy that plague her party, that was disingenuous #Elxn44
@yfblanchet was terrible in a number of segments, the @BlocQuebecois slide will continue with bleeding to all three other parties in Quebec, his arrogance was in check and maybe that was the problem, he can't find a balance
Based on what I’m seeing in early numbers tonight, the @peoplespca is definitely starting to narrow any path @erinotoole has to becoming PM in #elxn44
To be clear, the debate commission had no way of knowing that the @CPC_HQ policies would alienate so many right leaning voters, but today, it’s hard for me to understand why @MaximeBernier isn’t on stage for this #elxn44 debate
And before people get too excited, a similar dynamic is still in play for progressive voters, with @NDP making gains at the @liberal_party expense
One of those crazy @elxnometre simulations with an unmanageable hung parliament could be in play in #elxn44
The National landscape appears to be shifting again just ahead of the #Elxn44 debates
The @NDP is now second among female voters for the first time in our daily tracking, they have also expanded their lead among young voters under 35
The @ndp also now sits in 3rd place in Quebec where they appear to be making further seat gains, @theJagmeetSingh needs another solid performance in French tonight to solidify those potential gains