Thread by @pol_ange

Delighted to announce the release of my new report for @CFR_org, “The Day After in Venezuela: Delivering Security and Dispensing Justice.” Should @NicolasMaduro relinquish power, the US and likeminded partners will need a plan to reinstate the rule of law. cfr.org/report/day-aft…

#2. International actors have not planned sufficiently for stabilizing the security environment or fostering #transitionaljustice, which could itself be an important lever to push regime operatives toward defection or at least meaningful negotiations.

#3. Aftermath of Maduro’s departure could see conflict among armed factions, unstable political coalitions, corruption, and a #refugee and #migrant outflow. US should anticipate such fallout and identify opps now to ensure that any transition begets the restoration of #democracy.

#4. On security, US must find ways to co-opt the Venezuelan armed forces through judicial, financial incentives, while neutralizing non-state armed groups. @UN and @OAS_official will be essential to #DDR of some state forces, colectivos, insurgents, and criminals.

#5. US should address adversarial influence of #China, #Russia, and #Cuba through direct negotiations, while seeking points of entry among Venezuelan institutions controlled by the current democratic opposition, led by @jguaido.

#6. On justice, US should advocate for restorative justice to facilitate social peace and reconciliation. @OAS_official and @ABAesq could help with needed judicial reforms to revitalize the triad of law and order: police, courts, and prisons.

#7. Thus, US should seek opportunities to build trust with Venezuelans through hum and dev assistance, while disincentivizing potential spoilers inside and outside Ven. Importantly, US should not go at it alone. A multilateral brand would ensure the credibility of intl response.

#8. Whether post-Maduro Venezuela devolves into anarchy and conflict like #Afghanistan or follows path to democracy like #Chile will depend on how Ven authorities and its intl partners manage the transition in its earliest days.