Thread by @rogeravax

My Portfolio Strategy
Apologs for relative absence the last few wks, I’ve been running on empty working 20-hr days & my tweet volume has suffered. I use these tweets to think thru portfolio decisions, so not tweeting deprives me of an important part of my investment process
1/20

With this thread I'll do a run-down of my overall portfolio (not just the AVAX portion which is obv. a major piece) & my macro investment decisions, esp. important to do during such volatile times (yesterday – ouch). I hope its helpful, but this is *not* investment advice
2/20

1) The Macro Picture: for my process, I think it’s important to take a step back from individual positions & recalibrate your macro view on occasion & esp. during uncertain fears

I'll normally go to technicians/mkt commentators to understand what price action/mkts imply
3/20

I go to the likes of @Crypto_Kimmy, @Robert_Klondike & @Rager (on Twitter & TG) & others for market commentary

Here’s a technical trading list I’ve compiled on Twitter that may be helpful:
twitter.com/i/lists/132502…
4/20

And an example, a great thread by @AlamedaTrabucco on yesterday’s mayhem that was particularly insightful:


5/20

I also use a combo of crypto-specific & macro-focused podcasts to get a grounding on the overall picture. also to reinforce (or challenge) prevailing investment thesis for crypto – here’s a recent one with the excellent @LynAldenContact:

podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/we-…
6/20

These are must-listen to podcasts to stay tuned-in:
- @RealVision: daily macro commentary
- @MacroVoices: Thu run-down of macro
- @OnTheBrinkCIV: Fri run-down of crypto
- & recently @BanklessHQ, @UCCPodcast & @APompliano's podcast
7/20

Notwithstanding recent upheaval, here's how I'm looking at high-level allo's:
a) #BTC: still LT bullish but technical support waning
b) #ETH: bull case stronger with EIP-1559 catalyst
c) Alt-chains: $AVAX my (nearly) “all-in” bet, but still experimenting & spreading bets
8/20

a) #BTC: still LT bullish amid a sea of red, I can’t see anything the past couple of weeks that changes my underlying thesis
- Liquidations yest ~$8b & likely flushed out new entrants & paper hands – these types of corrections are regular & healthy (though yest esp. brutal)
9/20

- #BTC is highly correlated with S&P now so watch the S&P tape closely!
historically -2% S&P = -5%-10% BTC = -20%-50% alts
- $GBTC (where I hold my “forever” $BTC position) is -15% discount vs. spot so $40k x 85% = <$35k so looking to hold (if not add)
10/20

b) Sentiment for $ETH's been v. strong, and I view this weak mkt as potential buying opportunity (w/ caution & vs. BTC collateral). I’ve been listening to a lot of podcasts highlighting the major benefits of EIP-1559 incl. lower gas fees & deflationary elements,
11/20

& highly recommend listening to these from @UCCPodcast & @BanklessHQ for the bull case:
podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/unc…
podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/ban…

I'm “hedged” w/ alt-chains like $AVAX, but ultimately if ETH gets its act together, it has a massive network effect advantage
12/20

c) Alt-chain Investments: speaking of which, my (nearly) “all-in” bet is on @avalancheavax (both financially & professionally), but I'm still invested & doing some experimenting on other chains. Some observations:
13/20

- $AVAX’s best days ahead, still very early in the #defi ecosystem lifecycle with lending only just about to come online @BenqiFinance, improved on-ramping (the big Achilles heal imo) & increasing partnerships/funding from notable players
14/20

- @0xPolygon has been hot lately, with massive TVL growth to >$15b w/ support from @AaveAave & @CurveFinance. The counter is that they are just L2 to $ETH & not much value accrues to $MATIC itself
- #BSC had most momentum but has recently hit a snag with “broken network”
15/20

& left-tail risk of a @binance investigation by US Justice & IRS – which is being reflected in a big drop-off in TVL recently
- $SOL has also (until market crash yest) had a good run w/ the fully backing of @SBF & not-so-well-kept secret (now confirmed) @coinbase listing
16/20

2) My Portfolio Allocation (High-Level) reflects a few things:
- O/W #BTC & $ETH as I think majority of crypto portfolios should be due to their network effect dominance & expected R/R
- O/W $AVAX due to my strong conviction in network & own activism w/in #DeFi ecosystem
17/20

- Spread bets across other “alt-chains” including #BSC (though exposure dramatically cut) & $SOL, & initial positions in $CHIA, $MATIC & $LUNA
- FA-driven investments including $ARCH & $SUSHI, as described in previous threads
18/20

- Table doesn’t incl. certain IDOs (for ex. $CARDS & $CSPR) & advisory tokens that would skew the overall portfolio picture

Note that this portfolio strategy is *very* aggressive, and, given these extremely volatile & uncertain times, I'm taking steps to reduce risk via:
19/20

- Reducing leverage significantly (& denominating debt in #BTC instead of $USDT)
- Actively take profits (instead of letting positions ride) & convert into stablecoins/fiat
- Transitioning from smaller-cap names into larger-cap, more liquid $BTC/$ETH/large-caps
Stay safe!
20/20